Neopterin, a biomarker of macrophage activation, is elevated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of most HIV-infected individuals and decreases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We studied decay characteristics of neopterin in CSF and blood after commencement of ART in HIV-infected subjects and estimated the set-point levels of CSF neopterin after ART-mediated viral suppression. CSF and blood neopterin were longitudinally measured in 102 neurologically asymptomatic HIV-infected subjects who were treatment-naïve or had been off ART for ≥ 6 months. We used a non-linear model to estimate neopterin decay in response to ART and a stable neopterin set-point attained after prolonged ART. Seven subjects with HIV-associated dementia (HAD) who initiated ART were studied for comparison. Non-HAD patients were followed for a median 84.7 months. Though CSF neopterin concentrations decreased rapidly after ART initiation, it was estimated that set-point levels would be below normal CSF neopterin levels (<5.8 nmol/L) in only 60/102 (59%) of these patients. Pre-ART CSF neopterin was the primary predictor of set-point (P <0.001). HAD subjects had higher baseline median CSF neopterin levels than non-HAD subjects (P <0.0001). Based on the non-HAD model, only 14% of HAD patients were predicted to reach normal levels. After virologically suppressive ART, abnormal CSF neopterin levels persisted in 41% of non-HAD and the majority of HAD patients. ART is not fully effective in ameliorating macrophage activation in CNS as well as blood, especially in subjects with higher pre-ART levels of immune activation.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of HIV care and treatment programs is impacted by losses to follow-up (LTFU) in the patient population. The severity of this effect is undeniable but its extent unknown. Tracing all lost patients addresses this but census methods are not feasible in programs involving rapid scale-up of HIV treatment in the developing world. Sampling-based approaches and statistical adjustment are the only scaleable methods permitting accurate estimation of M&E indices. In a large antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in western Kenya, we assessed the impact of LTFU on estimating patient mortality among 8,977 adult clients of whom, 3,624 were LTFU. Overall, dropouts were more likely male (36.8% versus 33.7%; p = 0.003), and younger than non-dropouts (35.3 versus 35.7 years old; p = 0.020), with lower median CD4 count at enrollment (160 versus 189 cells/ml; p<0.001) and WHO stage 3–4 disease (47.5% versus 41.1%; p<0.001). Urban clinic clients were 75.0% of non-dropouts but 70.3% of dropouts (p<0.001). Of the 3,624 dropouts, 1,143 were sought and 621 had their vital status ascertained. Statistical techniques were used to adjust mortality estimates based on information obtained from located LTFU patients. Observed mortality estimates one year after enrollment were 1.7% (95% CI 1.3%–2.0%), revised to 2.8% (2.3%–3.1%) when deaths discovered through outreach were added and adjusted to 9.2% (7.8%–10.6%) and 9.9% (8.4%–11.5%) through statistical modeling depending on the method used. The estimates 12 months after ART initiation were 1.7% (1.3%–2.2%), 3.4% (2.9%–4.0%), 10.5% (8.7%–12.3%) and 10.7% (8.9%–12.6%) respectively. Assessment of the impact of LTFU is critical in program M&E as estimated mortality based on passive monitoring may underestimate true mortality by up to 80%. This bias can be ameliorated by tracing a sample of dropouts and statistically adjust the mortality estimates to properly evaluate and guide large HIV care and treatment programs.

Objective To provide estimates of mortality among HIV-infected patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy. Methods We report on the death rates from 122 925 adult HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older from East, Southern and West Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America. We use two methods to adjust for biases in mortality estimation resulting from loss from follow-up, based on double-sampling methods applied to patient outreach (Kenya) and linkage with vital registries (South Africa), and apply these to mortality estimates in the other three regions. Age, gender and CD4 count at the initiation of therapy were the factors considered as predictors of mortality at 6, 12, 24 and >24 months after the start of treatment. Results Patient mortality was high during the first 6 months after therapy for all patient subgroups and exceeded 40 per 100 patient years among patients who started treatment at low CD4 count. This trend was seen regardless of region, demographic or disease-related risk factor. Mortality was under-reported by up to or exceeding 100% when comparing estimates obtained from passive monitoring of patient vital status. Conclusions Despite advances in antiretroviral treatment coverage many patients start treatment at very low CD4 counts and experience significant mortality during the first 6 months after treatment initiation. Active patient tracing and linkage with vital registries are critical in adjusting estimates of mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income settings.

East Africa has experienced a rapid expansion in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected patients. Regionally representative socio-demographic, laboratory and clinical characteristics of patients accessing ART over time and across sites have not been well described.