The rapidly warming climate on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) leads to permafrost degradation, and the thawing of ice-rich permafrost induces land subsidence to facilitate the development of thermokarst lakes. Thermokarst lakes exacerbate the instability of permafrost, which significantly alters regional geomorphology and hydrology, affecting biogeochemical cycles. However, the spatial distribution and future changes in thermokarst lakes have rarely been assessed at large scales. In this study, we combined various conditioning factors and an inventory of thermokarst lakes to assess the spatial distribution of susceptibility maps using machine-learning algorithms. The results showed that the extremely randomized trees (EXT) performed the best in the susceptibility modeling process, followed by random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR). According to the assessment based on EXT, the high- and very high-susceptibility area of the present (2000–2016) susceptibility map was 196,222 km², covering 19.67% of the permafrost region of the QTP. In the future (the 2070s), the area of the susceptibility map was predicted to shrink significantly under various representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs). The susceptibility map area would be reduced to 37.06% of the present area in RCP 8.5. This paper also performed correlation and importance analysis on the conditioning factors and thermokarst lakes, which indicated that thermokarst lakes tended to form in areas with flat topography and high soil moisture. The uncertainty of the susceptibility map was further assessed by the coefficient of variation (CV). Our results demonstrate a way to study the spatial distribution of thermokarst lakes at the QTP scale and provide a scientific basis for understanding thermokarst processes in response to climate change.

Desertification is one of the most severe environmental and socioeconomic issues facing the world today. Gonghe Basin is located in the monsoon marginal zone of China, is a sensitive area of climate change in the northeastern of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, desertification issue has become very severe. Remote sensing monitoring provides an effective technical means for desertification control. In this study, we used Landsat images in 2010 and 2020 to extract desertification information to constructed the Albedo-NDVI feature space in the Gonghe Basin. And then analyzed temporal and spatial evolution of desertification and its driving factors using Geodetector in the Gonghe Basin from 2010 to 2020. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Albedo-NDVI feature space method can accurately classify desertification information with accuracy of more than 90%, which was benefit to quantitative analysis of desertification. (2) The desertification situation in the Gonghe Basin had improved from 2010 to 2020, especially in the west of the basin, desertification land area decreased by 827.46 km², and desertification intensity had been obviously reversed. (3) The changes of the desertification in the Gonghe Basin from 2010 to 2020 was affected by both natural and human factors, and the influence of human activities on desertification reversal had increased gradually. The results indicate that the desertification status in the Gonghe Basin had been effectively controlled, and can provide useful basis for the desertification combat in the Gonghe Basin.

The ongoing shifts in climate, coupled with human activities, are leading to significant land desertification; thus, understanding the long-term variations in ecosystem services as well as the driving factors has a significant value for ensuring ecological security in ecologically fragile arid regions. In this study, we used the RUSLE, RWEQ, CASA, and InVEST models to evaluate five typical ecosystem services (ESs) from 1990 to 2020 in the Gonghe Basin, including soil conservation, sand fixation, carbon sequestration, water yield, and habitat quality. Then, we analyzed the trade-offs between ESs and proposed scientific indications. Finally, we identified the driving mechanisms of ES spatiotemporal variations. The results showed that (1) the ecosystem services in the Gonghe Basin have, overall, improved over the past 30 years. Soil conservation, sand fixation, carbon sequestration, and water yield showed upward trends, while habitat quality showed a downward trend. (2) The relationships between ESs in the Gonghe Basin were characterized by strong synergies and weak trade-offs, with significant spatial heterogeneity in terms of the trade-off intensity. In addition, the implementation of ecological engineering may strengthen the intensity of the trade-offs. (3) Among all the factors (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, NDVI, land use type, slope, DEM and soil type) that affected ESs, NDVI had the greatest impact, and the explanatory power was 49%, followed by soil type. The explanatory power of the interactions between each factor was higher than that of a single factor, and the interaction between NDVI and soil type had the greatest impact. ESs increased by 12% mainly due to the implementation of ecological engineering projects and natural factors. The most suitable area for ESs was the southeastern edge of the Gonghe Basin. Our study will enrich the understanding of the mechanisms of ecosystem services in drylands and provide a scientific basis for the future implementation of ecological engineering on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.

Climate change is causing permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to degrade, triggering thermokarst hazards and impacting the environment. Despite their ecological importance, the distribution and risks of thermokarst lakes are not well understood due to complex influencing factors. In this study, we introduced a new interpretable ensemble learning method designed to improve the global and local interpretation of susceptibility assessments for thermokarst lakes. Our primary aim was to offer scientific support for precisely evaluating areas prone to thermokarst lake formation. In the thermokarst lake susceptibility assessment, we identified ten conditioning factors related to the formation and distribution of thermokarst lakes. In this highly accurate stacking model, the primary learning units were the random forest (RF), extremely randomized trees (EXTs), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) algorithms. Meanwhile, gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs) were employed as the secondary learning unit. Based on the stacking model, we assessed thermokarst lake susceptibility and validated accuracy through six evaluation indices. We examined the interpretability of the stacking model using three interpretation methods: accumulated local effects (ALE), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The results showed that the ensemble learning stacking model demonstrated superior performance and the highest prediction accuracy. Approximately 91.20% of the total thermokarst hazard points fell within the high and very high susceptible areas, encompassing 20.08% of the permafrost expanse in the QTP. The conclusive findings revealed that slope, elevation, the topographic wetness index (TWI), and precipitation were the primary factors influencing the assessment of thermokarst lake susceptibility. This comprehensive analysis extends to the broader impacts of thermokarst hazards, with the identified high and very high susceptibility zones affecting significant stretches of railway and highway infrastructure, substantial soil organic carbon reserves, and vast alpine grasslands. This interpretable ensemble learning model, which exhibits high accuracy, offers substantial practical significance for project route selection, construction, and operation in the QTP.