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Central African citizens are highly vulnerable to extreme hydroclimatic events due to excess precipitation or to dry spells. This study makes use of CHIRPS precipitation data gridded at 0.05° × 0.05° resolution and extended from 1981 to 2019 to analyze spatial variabilities and trends of six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) over Cameroon. They are the number of wet days (RR1), the simple daily intensity index (SDII), the annual total precipitation from days greater than the 95th percentile (R95ptot), the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of very heavy rainfall (RR20). The standard precipitation index (SPI) time series were also examined in the five agro-climatic regions of the domain. The pattern of annual precipitation was first checked over the entire domain. We obtain a well-known pattern showing a decreased precipitation northward with the highest values around the Atlantic Ocean coast. The analysis shows that all indices represent patterns approximately similar to that of annual rainfall except CDD where the spatial south-north gradient is reversed. RR20 shows the lowest spatial variability. Trend study of RR1 indicates negative values south of the domain and predominated positive values in the northern part, where CDD, on the contrary, shows a decreased trend. The highest trends are observed in the northernmost area for CWD and around the coast for SDII and R95ptot. SPI time series indicate an alternative dry and wet period and the years between 1990 and 2000 witnessed more annual wet conditions. Such a study is very important in this domain where variabilities of climatic components are very high due to climate change impact and diversified relief. The results can serve as a reference for agricultural activity, hydropower management, civil engineering, planning of economic activities and can contribute to the understanding of the climate system in Cameroon.
Derbetini Vondou; Guy Guenang; Tchotchou Djiotang; Pierre Kamsu-Tamo. Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6803 .
AMA StyleDerbetini Vondou, Guy Guenang, Tchotchou Djiotang, Pierre Kamsu-Tamo. Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (12):6803.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDerbetini Vondou; Guy Guenang; Tchotchou Djiotang; Pierre Kamsu-Tamo. 2021. "Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon." Sustainability 13, no. 12: 6803.
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon. However, it has received very little attention, especially, on its impacts on the growing season of crops. To fill this gap, this study assessed the drought hazard using standardized precipitation index at a 3-month scale, and phenology of the main crops in 19 rainfall stations in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon for the period 1980–2012. The trend of drought was studied using the Mann-Kendall technique. The agricultural drought hazard was quantified based on its frequency and intensity. Results show that there is a significant trend toward a more humid crop-growing period in the northern and southeastern parts of the study area, but significant dry trends during the maize and peanut growing periods in the southwestern part of the study area. Drought occurrence rates are 7.09, 4.22, and 3.17% for the moderate, severe, and extreme, respectively. Areas featuring high and very high agricultural drought hazards are distributed in the far north, central, and the southeastern parts of the study domain. Furthermore, the Sahelian and Sudanian climatic conditions were found to be very high agricultural drought hazard zones, especially, where the maize and peanut grain crops are concerned. However, significant dry trends and very high agricultural drought hazard zones during the maize and peanut growing periods are catastrophic for agriculture and, therefore, food security.
Ibrahim Njouenwet; Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou; Elisabeth Fita Dassou; Brian Odhiambo Ayugi; Robert Nouayou. Assessment of agricultural drought during crop-growing season in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon. Natural Hazards 2021, 106, 561 -577.
AMA StyleIbrahim Njouenwet, Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou, Elisabeth Fita Dassou, Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Robert Nouayou. Assessment of agricultural drought during crop-growing season in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon. Natural Hazards. 2021; 106 (1):561-577.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIbrahim Njouenwet; Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou; Elisabeth Fita Dassou; Brian Odhiambo Ayugi; Robert Nouayou. 2021. "Assessment of agricultural drought during crop-growing season in the Sudano–Sahelian region of Cameroon." Natural Hazards 106, no. 1: 561-577.
In regions featuring strong convective activity (such as the Congo Basin, CB), turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer strongly affects the water budget. In this study, we use a process-based evaluation to assess the performance of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCM) RCA4 in simulating the September–November CB rainfall, under conditions of strong and weak turbulent mixing. To this regard, results from two different versions of model are analysed: the version used in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment framework (RCA4-v1), and a modified version (RCA4-v4), in which turbulent mixing is reduced. Experiments are driven with boundary conditions from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that RCA4-v4 improves the CB rainfall climatology compared to RCA4-v1. This result is further related to the models’ different representations of the relevant driving mechanisms and processes. The model version with a reduced turbulent mixing (RCA4-v4) shifts less moisture from the lower troposphere towards the free troposphere. As the shallow convective mixing is reduced (owing to the reduction of the turbulent mixing), lower layers are moistened, and low level cloud fraction increases over Equatorial Africa. This increase is stronger over the West Equatorial African (WEA) coast than over the CB. The result is that surface solar radiation decreases more over the WEA coast than over the CB, which would result in a lower surface temperature over WEA coast than over the CB. An enhanced pressure gradient between the WEA and the CB is created as a result, thus enhancing the Congo low level cell, and low level westerlies (LLWs). LLWs are faster, meaning that more moisture flows through the CB Cell, is uplifted in eastern up-branch, and enters African Easterly Jets (AEJs), which, in turn, are intensified due to the increase in the surface temperature gradient. Intensification of the CB cell and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is the cause of the higher rainfall and is what improves the CB rainfall climatology in RCA4-v4. In addition, the increase in rainfall causes an increase in soil moisture in RCA4-v4 in both the north and south of the CB. Higher soil moisture does not affect evaporation in the north as soils are already saturated in RCA4-v1. However, the increase in rainfall increases soil moisture in the south in RCA4-v4, which increases evaporation as soils were initially unsaturated. This higher evaporation is exported out of the basin towards Southern Africa, does not recirculate through the Cell, and does not therefore contribute to further improving the rainfall bias over the Congo. Our results show that reducing turbulent mixing results in a better representation of the dynamics of the climate system over the CB and, in turn, improved precipitation.
Alain T. Tamoffo; Grigory Nikulin; Derbetini A. Vondou; Alessandro Dosio; Robert Nouayou; MinChao Wu; Pascal M. Igri. Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics 2021, 56, 1951 -1965.
AMA StyleAlain T. Tamoffo, Grigory Nikulin, Derbetini A. Vondou, Alessandro Dosio, Robert Nouayou, MinChao Wu, Pascal M. Igri. Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics. 2021; 56 (5-6):1951-1965.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlain T. Tamoffo; Grigory Nikulin; Derbetini A. Vondou; Alessandro Dosio; Robert Nouayou; MinChao Wu; Pascal M. Igri. 2021. "Process-based assessment of the impact of reduced turbulent mixing on Congo Basin precipitation in the RCA4 Regional Climate Model." Climate Dynamics 56, no. 5-6: 1951-1965.
The study aims to assess the local response of the regional climate model version 4.6 (RegCM4.6) to the coupling of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Central Africa. The ability of the model is evaluated over six years (first January 2001, to thirty-first December 2006) by conducting two different experiments with the Grell convective scheme. The experiments are carried out monthly with a spatial resolution of 40 km. The model was forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses and validated by GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) observational data, ERA 5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. To evaluate the influence of the slab-ocean, we carried out two different experiments: The first experiment is designed to produce the climatology and force the surface limits of RegCM with the sea surface temperature. The second experiment is designed to couple RegCM with the slab-ocean, which provides mutual interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using statistical tools, we evaluated the model's ability to simulate precipitation, surface temperature and wind. Both experiments reasonably reproduce the main characteristics of the rainfall regime, temperature and wind. A comparative analysis of the different experiments reveals that the performances of the experiments are similar in Central Africa and in the different homogeneous sub-regions as far as rainfall is concerned, but there are subtle differences. Slab-ocean improvement varies from season to season and from the sub-region to sub-region. However, we note a significant improvement in temperature and rainfall over the Indian Ocean.
Francois Xavier Mengouna; Derbetini A. Vondou; A. J. Komkoua Mbienda; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Denis Sonkoué; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Pascal M. Igri. Influence of slab-ocean parametrization in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over Central Africa. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleFrancois Xavier Mengouna, Derbetini A. Vondou, A. J. Komkoua Mbienda, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Denis Sonkoué, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Pascal M. Igri. Influence of slab-ocean parametrization in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over Central Africa. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFrancois Xavier Mengouna; Derbetini A. Vondou; A. J. Komkoua Mbienda; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Denis Sonkoué; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Pascal M. Igri. 2021. "Influence of slab-ocean parametrization in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over Central Africa." , no. : 1.
Spatial distribution of the seasonal changes (in %) between future and historical periods (2021–2050 minus 1981–2010); for total wet‐day rainfall amount (PRCPTOT; first row), wet‐day frequency (RR1; second row), wet‐day intensity (SDII; third row), dry spells (CDD; fourth row) and total wet‐day rainfall above the 95th percentile (R95PTOT; fifth row), from RCM ensemble mean experiments over Cameroon. Stippling indicates areas where the change is significant (i.e. where at least 80% of simulations agree on the sign of the change).
Jean‐Jacques M. Mboka; Sandrine B. Kouna; Steven Chouto; Flore K. Djuidje; Estelle B. Nguy; Gabriel Fotso‐Kamga; Cédric N. Matsaguim; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Jean P. Nghonda; Derbetini A. Vondou; Zéphirin D. Yepdo. Simulated impact of global warming on extreme rainfall events over Cameroon during the 21st century. Weather 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleJean‐Jacques M. Mboka, Sandrine B. Kouna, Steven Chouto, Flore K. Djuidje, Estelle B. Nguy, Gabriel Fotso‐Kamga, Cédric N. Matsaguim, Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Jean P. Nghonda, Derbetini A. Vondou, Zéphirin D. Yepdo. Simulated impact of global warming on extreme rainfall events over Cameroon during the 21st century. Weather. 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJean‐Jacques M. Mboka; Sandrine B. Kouna; Steven Chouto; Flore K. Djuidje; Estelle B. Nguy; Gabriel Fotso‐Kamga; Cédric N. Matsaguim; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Jean P. Nghonda; Derbetini A. Vondou; Zéphirin D. Yepdo. 2020. "Simulated impact of global warming on extreme rainfall events over Cameroon during the 21st century." Weather , no. : 1.
In this study, nine global climate models (GCMs) and corresponding downscaled runs by means of the regional climate model (RCM) RCA4 are used to investigate added value (AV) in precipitation and its some drivers over Central Africa (CA). By employing a process‐based analysis approach, we intercompare abilities of RCM to those of driving GCMs in representing the total atmospheric moisture flux convergence (TMFC), moisture transport, and African Easterly Jets (AEJs). Results indicate that simulations with highest AVs in the precipitation climatology also show improvements in the representation of the TMFC and AEJs. Degraded precipitation due to the downscaling is associated with deterioration of at least two of three analyzed mechanisms, and sometimes there is inconsistent AVs between precipitation and related drivers. This sustains that a realistic representation of the moisture transport and atmospheric circulation is of great importance for the correct simulation of present (and, consequently, future) precipitation over CA.
Alain T. Tamoffo; Alessandro Dosio; Derbetini A. Vondou; Denis Sonkoué. Process‐Based Analysis of the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Over Central Africa. Geophysical Research Letters 2020, 47, 1 .
AMA StyleAlain T. Tamoffo, Alessandro Dosio, Derbetini A. Vondou, Denis Sonkoué. Process‐Based Analysis of the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Over Central Africa. Geophysical Research Letters. 2020; 47 (17):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlain T. Tamoffo; Alessandro Dosio; Derbetini A. Vondou; Denis Sonkoué. 2020. "Process‐Based Analysis of the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Over Central Africa." Geophysical Research Letters 47, no. 17: 1.
This paper investigates the performance of ten (10) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) hindcasts from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) over Central Africa, covering the period 1998‐2008 and performed over a common model grid‐spacing 0.44°(~50 km). Multiple observational datasets are used to evaluate model performances over four targeted subregions. Throughout the work, a measure of observational uncertainty is made and we discuss whether or not the models are found within or outside the range of observational uncertainty. Results indicate that RCMs generally capture rainfall and temperature basic features, though important biases exist and vary for models and seasons. Dry (wet) biases are common features over the Congo basin (northern and southern part of the domain). In terms of precipitation and temperature in both seasonal and annual scale, most RCMs along with their ensemble mean generally fall in the range of observational uncertainty. Furthermore, most RCMs show a good spread of grid points where the added value of RCMs is found although the added value in temperature is not as great as with precipitation. UC‐WRF is among models adding less value on ERAINT and this could explain why whatever the time scale of variability, UC‐WRF outputs are generally out from the observational uncertainty. The multimodel ensemble mean is generally found within observational range when most models are there as well. This highlights the fact that the ensemble mean, built from the equal treatment of RCMs, does not always outperform individual RCMs realization as it is reported in several previous studies.
Thierry N. Taguela; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Wilfried M. Pokam; Roméo S. Tanessong; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Andreas Haensler; Georges N. Longandjo; Jean P. Bell; Roland R. Takong; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou. CORDEX Multi‐RCM Hindcast Over Central Africa: Evaluation Within Observational Uncertainty. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2020, 125, 1 .
AMA StyleThierry N. Taguela, Derbetini A. Vondou, Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia, Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Wilfried M. Pokam, Roméo S. Tanessong, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Andreas Haensler, Georges N. Longandjo, Jean P. Bell, Roland R. Takong, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou. CORDEX Multi‐RCM Hindcast Over Central Africa: Evaluation Within Observational Uncertainty. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2020; 125 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThierry N. Taguela; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfran Moufouma‐Okia; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Wilfried M. Pokam; Roméo S. Tanessong; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Andreas Haensler; Georges N. Longandjo; Jean P. Bell; Roland R. Takong; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou. 2020. "CORDEX Multi‐RCM Hindcast Over Central Africa: Evaluation Within Observational Uncertainty." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125, no. 5: 1.
In this study, an analysis of present day climate simulation (1998–2008) is presented for the Central African (CA) region with the COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling in CLimate Mode (CCLM) regional climate model, forced by the ERA‐Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis data. The ability of the CCLM to simulate the observed precipitation with particular focus on the mean spatial pattern, low‐level circulation, seasonal cycles, and daily characteristics is evaluated. Likewise, the added value of the regional model CCLM compared to the driving ERAINT reanalysis is also investigated. It's shown that ERAINT and CCLM exhibit quite different sign of bias, which is an indication of the importance of internal variability and fine scale processes representation for the simulation of surface climate. Despite the CCLM is constantly dry over southern CA, the model succeeds to reproduce reasonably the mean spatial patterns of precipitation and low‐level circulation features, along with the associated seasonal cycles over the whole CA and majority of the five selected analysis sub‐regions. Results also show that daily precipitation indices are well represented, although the better performance greatly depends on the considered seasons. Nevertheless, CCLM substantially outperforms the ERAINT daily precipitation characteristics, thus highlighting the added value of the downscaling exercise over the region. The analysis of daily precipitation indices also reveals that the dry character of the model could probably be connected to the underestimation of the simulated less intense events, which in turn result to an overestimation of the simulated dry spell duration. We found that CCLM substantially improves the simulation of both mean seasonal and daily precipitation compared to the driving ERAINT reanalysis, thus highlighting the added value of the downscaling exercise over the region. It is also shown that the dry character of the model is probably connected to the less intense events and too long dry spells simulated by the model. Mean (1998–2008) spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation (in mm/day), from observation (a‐d) GPCP. Also shown are the spatial distribution of the difference TRMM minus GPCP (e‐h), the biases with respect to GPCP from ERAINT (i‐l) and from CCLM (m‐p), and the difference between CCLM and ERAINT (q‐t). Hatching (stippling) indicates grid points where there is an added value by the dynamical downscaling, with GPCP (TRMM) used as observation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Gabriel Fotso‐Kamga; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Ismaila Diallo; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Wilfried M. Pokam; Derbetini A. Vondou; André Lenouo. An evaluation of COSMO‐CLM regional climate model in simulating precipitation over Central Africa. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 40, 2891 -2912.
AMA StyleGabriel Fotso‐Kamga, Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Ismaila Diallo, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Wilfried M. Pokam, Derbetini A. Vondou, André Lenouo. An evaluation of COSMO‐CLM regional climate model in simulating precipitation over Central Africa. International Journal of Climatology. 2019; 40 (5):2891-2912.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGabriel Fotso‐Kamga; Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo; Ismaila Diallo; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Wilfried M. Pokam; Derbetini A. Vondou; André Lenouo. 2019. "An evaluation of COSMO‐CLM regional climate model in simulating precipitation over Central Africa." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 5: 2891-2912.
This study explores the potential response of the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall indices over Central Africa (CA) to the global warming for both the middle (2029–2058) and late twenty-first century (2069–2098), based on analysis of multi-model ensembles mean of fifteen regional climate models (RCMs) simulations. Although few dry/wet biases are still evident, for the present day climate, the RCMs ensemble mostly outperforms the driving global climate models, with a better representation of the seasonal cycle of various rainfall indices over two key sub-regions of CA chosen according to their particular rainfall patterns. Both middle and late twenty-first century project a non-significant decrease in total wet-day rainfall amount over the two analysed sub-regions, with peaks found during pre-monsoon months. We also found a significant decrease in wet-day frequency which was consistent with decreases in total wet-day rainfall amount, while wet-day intensity is projected to significantly increase. These results suggest that the decrease in total wet-day rainfall amount could be associated with less frequent events and not with their intensity. The results also have shown that dry (wet) spells are projected to significantly increase (decrease) over both sub-regions with shorter (longer) dry (wet) spells projected during pre-monsoon months. Consequently, countries within these two sub-regions could experience a more extended dry season, and therefore would be exposed to high drought risk in the future under global warming. However, changes in maximum 1-day rainfall amount, maximum 5-day rainfall amount, and 95th percentile are projected to significantly increase during monsoon months, with the maximum 1-day rainfall amount recording largest increases. Additionally, the total amount of rainfall events above the 95th percentile projects a significant increase of about 10–45 % during monsoon months, while the total number of occurrence of rainfall events above the 95th percentile projects a slight significant decrease of 4–8 % during pre-monsoon months but more pronounced for the late twenty-first century. This implies that in the future, extremes rainfall events could be more intense both in terms of rainfall amount and intensity during monsoon months. Such changes are likely to amplify the probability of flood risks during monsoon months over CA, particularly the two sub-regions. This study could therefore be an important input for disaster preparedness, adaptation planning, and mitigation strategies for Central African countries.
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Ismaïla Diallo; Moussa Diakhaté; Derbetini A. Vondou; Mamadou L. Mbaye; Andreas Haensler; Amadou T. Gaye; Clément Tchawoua. Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa. Climatic Change 2019, 155, 339 -357.
AMA StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Ismaïla Diallo, Moussa Diakhaté, Derbetini A. Vondou, Mamadou L. Mbaye, Andreas Haensler, Amadou T. Gaye, Clément Tchawoua. Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa. Climatic Change. 2019; 155 (3):339-357.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Ismaïla Diallo; Moussa Diakhaté; Derbetini A. Vondou; Mamadou L. Mbaye; Andreas Haensler; Amadou T. Gaye; Clément Tchawoua. 2019. "Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa." Climatic Change 155, no. 3: 339-357.
Understanding the processes responsible for precipitation and its future change is important to develop plausible and sustainable climate change adaptation strategies, especially in regions with few available observed data like Congo Basin (CB). This paper investigates the atmospheric circulation processes associated with climate model biases in CB rainfall, and explores drivers of projected rainfall changes. Here we use an ensemble of simulations from the Swedish Regional Climate Model (RCM) RCA4, driven by eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), for the \(1.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}\) and \(2\ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}\) global warming levels (GWLs), and under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. RCA4 captures reasonably well the observed patterns of CB rainfall seasonality, but shows dry biases independent of seasons and large scale driving atmospheric conditions. While simulations mimic observed peaks in transition seasons (March–May and September–November), the rain-belt is misplaced southward (northward) in December–February (June–August), reducing the latitudinal extent of rainfall. Moreover, ERA-Interim reanalysis driven RCM simulation and RCM–GCM combinations show similar results, indicating the dominance of systematic biases. Modelled dry biases are associated with dry upper-tropospheric layers, resulting from a western outflow stronger than the eastern inflow and related to the northern component of African Easterly Jet. From the analysis of the climate change signal, we found that regional scale responses to anthropogenic forcings vary across GWLs and seasons. Changes of rainfall and moisture divergence are correlated, with values higher in March–May than in September–November, and larger for global warming of \(2.0 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}\) than at \(1.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}\). There is an increase of zonal moisture divergence fluxes in upper atmospheric layers (\(> 700\,{\text {hPa}}\)) under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Moreover, it is found that additional warming of \(0.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}\) will change the hydrological cycle and water availability in the CB, with potential to cause challenges to water resource management, agriculture, hydro-power generation, sanitation and ecosystems.
Alain T. Tamoffo; Wilfran Moufouma-Okia; Alessandro Dosio; Rachel James; Wilfried M. Pokam; Derbetini A. Vondou; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Guy Merlin Guenang; Pierre H. Kamsu-Tamo; Grigory Nikulin; Georges-Noel Longandjo; Christopher J. Lennard; Jean-Pierre Bell; Roland R. Takong; Andreas Haensler; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Robert Nouayou. Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under $$1.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 1.5 ∘ C and $$2 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 2 ∘ C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes. Climate Dynamics 2019, 53, 1911 -1935.
AMA StyleAlain T. Tamoffo, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Alessandro Dosio, Rachel James, Wilfried M. Pokam, Derbetini A. Vondou, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Guy Merlin Guenang, Pierre H. Kamsu-Tamo, Grigory Nikulin, Georges-Noel Longandjo, Christopher J. Lennard, Jean-Pierre Bell, Roland R. Takong, Andreas Haensler, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou, Robert Nouayou. Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under $$1.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 1.5 ∘ C and $$2 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 2 ∘ C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes. Climate Dynamics. 2019; 53 (3-4):1911-1935.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlain T. Tamoffo; Wilfran Moufouma-Okia; Alessandro Dosio; Rachel James; Wilfried M. Pokam; Derbetini A. Vondou; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Guy Merlin Guenang; Pierre H. Kamsu-Tamo; Grigory Nikulin; Georges-Noel Longandjo; Christopher J. Lennard; Jean-Pierre Bell; Roland R. Takong; Andreas Haensler; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Robert Nouayou. 2019. "Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under $$1.5 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 1.5 ∘ C and $$2 \ ^{\circ }{\text {C}}$$ 2 ∘ C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes." Climate Dynamics 53, no. 3-4: 1911-1935.
In this paper, daily characteristics of the Central Africa rainfall are assessed using the regional model REMO in the framework of contributions to the CORDEX-Africa project. The model is used to dynamically downscale two global climate models (MPI-ESM-LR and EC-EARTH) for the present (1981–2005) and future (2041–2065, 2071–2095) climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission scenarios. A substantial spatio-temporal variability of the daily precipitation characteristics is obtained, as well as varying inferences for individual indices. For the present days, both REMO’s runs capture reasonably well the mean seasonal rainfall, the frequency of wet days, the threshold of extreme rainfall, and the cumulative frequency of daily rainfall. The model better simulates the frequency of rainy days than their intensity. It is found that origins of model biases differ as a function of regions. Over the continent, boundary conditions tend to influence the spatial distribution of rainfall whereas over oceanic and coastal regions, REMO’s physics seems to dominate over the boundary forcing. The projected frequency of wet days shows a decrease along the twenty-first century over most part of the continent. Throughout the century, all scenarios of REMO decrease the rate of rainfall with increasing intensity, and which will be noticeable in the Sahelian region at late twenty-first century. Furthermore, the extreme event thresholds decrease over Sahelian regions and increase along the coastal regions.
Alain T. Tamoffo; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfried M. Pokam; Andreas Haensler; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Robert Nouayou. Daily characteristics of Central African rainfall in the REMO model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2019, 137, 2351 -2368.
AMA StyleAlain T. Tamoffo, Derbetini A. Vondou, Wilfried M. Pokam, Andreas Haensler, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou, Robert Nouayou. Daily characteristics of Central African rainfall in the REMO model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2019; 137 (3-4):2351-2368.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlain T. Tamoffo; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfried M. Pokam; Andreas Haensler; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Robert Nouayou. 2019. "Daily characteristics of Central African rainfall in the REMO model." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, no. 3-4: 2351-2368.
This study uses daily rainfall data from 20 global climate models (GCMs) simulations, participating in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and eight daily rainfall indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), to investigate the changes in extreme weather conditions over Central Africa under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. The performance of the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean which in fact refers to the best performing models selected through the Taylor diagram analysis was evaluated by comparing with two gridded daily observation datasets during the historical period (1998–2005). Results show that although some uncertainties may exist between the gridded observation datasets, MME consistently outperform individual models and reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of daily rainfall indices over the region, except in the case of consecutive wet day (CWD) where the high variability of individual members has resulted in the degradation of the overall skill of the MME. The assessment of the climate change signal in the eight daily rainfall indices was done for the mid and late twenty-first century (2026–2056 and 2066–2095 respectively), relative to the baseline historical time period (1976–2005). We found a significant increase in the total wet day rainfall amount (PRCPTOT) over southern (northern) Central Africa from December to February (from September to November). This is mainly due to the increase of high intense rainfall events rather than their frequency. The results also reveal that the increase in PRCPTOT was coupled with increase in the maximum consecutive 5-day rainfall amount (RX5DAY), the 95th percentile (R95), and the total wet day rainfall amount above the 95th percentile (R95PTOT), with more robust patterns of change at the late twenty-first century. The increase in extreme rainfall events (RX5DAY, R95, and R95PTOT) is likely to increase flood risks over Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Congo, Angola, Zambia, and Democratic Republic of Congo. On the other hand, changes in CWD and PRCPTOT are projected to significantly decrease over Angola, Zambia, and Democratic Republic of Congo from September to November. This is due to a substantial increase of zonal moisture divergence fluxes in upper atmospheric layers. The analysis has also shown that areas where CWD and PRCPTOT decreases coincides with those where consecutive dry days (CDD) increase. The decrease in CWD and PRCPTOT coupled with the increase in CDD could worsen drought risk and significantly disrupt priority socio-economic sectors for development such as rain-fed agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and water resource availability. The results thus underline the importance for decision-makers to seriously consider adaptation and mitigation measures, in order to limit the risks of natural disasters such as severe droughts and floods that Central African countries may suffer in the future.
Denis Sonkoué; David Monkam; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Derbetini A. Vondou. Evaluation and projected changes in daily rainfall characteristics over Central Africa based on a multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2018, 137, 2167 -2186.
AMA StyleDenis Sonkoué, David Monkam, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Derbetini A. Vondou. Evaluation and projected changes in daily rainfall characteristics over Central Africa based on a multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2018; 137 (3-4):2167-2186.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDenis Sonkoué; David Monkam; Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Derbetini A. Vondou. 2018. "Evaluation and projected changes in daily rainfall characteristics over Central Africa based on a multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP5 simulations." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, no. 3-4: 2167-2186.
The diurnal cycle of convection over Cameroon was investigated by examining data acquired by METEOSAT during the summer season (June–August) from 1999 to 2002. High spatial resolution (5 km × 5 km) data were used to identify the role of complex topographic features. Four years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall product (3B42) was analyzed as well to check the METEOSAT findings. The maximum of cloud fraction and rainfall are not at the same location. It shows that convection exhibits a noticeable diurnal variability, typically peaking at 235 K in late afternoon (~ 1700–1800 LST). The different diurnal patterns are greatly correlated with the underlying surface, such as the plateau, plain, and ocean. In areas of Cameroon where convection is diurnally controlled by mesoscale circulations, interannual variability is much smaller than diurnal variability. In contrast, regions where the seasonal rainfall is dominated by mesoscale systems (northern Cameroon), stronger interannual variability is observed. In some areas, where there is a secondary peak in convection in the early morning, thought to be due to propagating systems initiated outside the region, this secondary peak shows more interannual variability than the earlier, and a late afternoon maximum.
Derbetini A. Vondou; Zephirin D. Yepdo; L. A. Djiotang Tchotchou. Diurnal Cycle of Convective Cloud Occurrences Over Cameroon During June–August. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing 2018, 46, 829 -845.
AMA StyleDerbetini A. Vondou, Zephirin D. Yepdo, L. A. Djiotang Tchotchou. Diurnal Cycle of Convective Cloud Occurrences Over Cameroon During June–August. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing. 2018; 46 (5):829-845.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDerbetini A. Vondou; Zephirin D. Yepdo; L. A. Djiotang Tchotchou. 2018. "Diurnal Cycle of Convective Cloud Occurrences Over Cameroon During June–August." Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing 46, no. 5: 829-845.
This study evaluates the ability of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) to reproduce the observed rainfall and wind over West and central Africa (WCA) during two contrasting years of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT): the very cold in 1992 and very warm in 2007 depicted by the Caniaux et al.’s index. The convective schemes of Kuo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology‐Emanuel (Ema) and Grell with closure assumptions of Arakawa–Schubert (GAS) and Fritch–Chappel (GFC) were compared and the best scheme was tested to study the sensitivity of WCA climate to ACT in August of each chosen year—the month which follows that of the peak of ACT. Comparisons of simulations for 1992 and 2007 reveal that some areas are sensitive to extreme ACT events. The regional distribution of observed precipitation (wind) in August 2007 was heavier (lower intensity) than that for the 1992, particularly in West than central Africa region. From GPCP data, it is observed that the range of Cameroon highlands and the Bauchi Plateau of Nigeria are not significantly affected by the ACT. It is shown that rainfall of some subregions is very sensitive to ACT. The GFC scheme is capable of reproducing the amount and distribution of the precipitation for the 2 years in the ACT area, the west and east Guinean coasts, and failed to reproduce the rainfall in west and central Soudano–Sahel regions and East Africa. However, the Kuo scheme reproduces well in these three zones. Contrarily to rainfall, the Ema scheme better reproduces, but overestimating, the wind distribution in the Sahara region. GFC better simulates the wind speed sensitivity to ACT far from the coast in Soudano–Sahel and Nigeria–Cameroon zones. The GAS and Kuo are not well correlated with ERA‐Interim in WCA. Most of the schemes adequately mimic the African easterly jet structure.
Sadem C. Kenfack; K. F. Mkankam; G. Alory; N. M. Hounkonnou; A. J. Komkoua Mbienda; P. Choumbou; Derbetini A. Vondou. Sensitivity studies of the RegCM4 simulation in West and central Africa during strong and weak years of Atlantic cold tongue. International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38, 3513 -3531.
AMA StyleSadem C. Kenfack, K. F. Mkankam, G. Alory, N. M. Hounkonnou, A. J. Komkoua Mbienda, P. Choumbou, Derbetini A. Vondou. Sensitivity studies of the RegCM4 simulation in West and central Africa during strong and weak years of Atlantic cold tongue. International Journal of Climatology. 2018; 38 (9):3513-3531.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSadem C. Kenfack; K. F. Mkankam; G. Alory; N. M. Hounkonnou; A. J. Komkoua Mbienda; P. Choumbou; Derbetini A. Vondou. 2018. "Sensitivity studies of the RegCM4 simulation in West and central Africa during strong and weak years of Atlantic cold tongue." International Journal of Climatology 38, no. 9: 3513-3531.
In this study, the projections of daily rainfall from an ensemble mean of 20 global climate models (GCMs) are used to examine projected trends in heavy rainfall distribution over Central Africa (CA), under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. For this purpose, two analyses periods of 40-years have been selected (2006–2045 and 2056–2095) to compute trends in the 90th and 99th percentiles of the daily rainfall distributions. We found that large increase trend is mostly found in the 99th percentile of rainfall events, over southern Chad, northern Cameroon, northern Zambia, and in the Great Lakes Area. This can be attributed to the increase of moisture convergence intensified by the presence of the Congo Basin rainforest. It is also shown that the largest number of GCMs with a trend of the same sign as the average trend is observed over the above regions. It is thus clear that the projected increase trends in heavy rainfall events may further worse floods which are real problems in the CA countries. Therefore, strong subregional policies are needed to help design effective adaptation and mitigation measures for the region's countries.
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Roméo Chamani; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Denis Sonkoué; Cédric N. Matsaguim; Derbetini A. Vondou; Roméo S. Tanessong. Projected trends of extreme rainfall events from CMIP5 models over Central Africa. Atmospheric Science Letters 2018, 19, e803 .
AMA StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Roméo Chamani, Zéphirin D. Yepdo, Denis Sonkoué, Cédric N. Matsaguim, Derbetini A. Vondou, Roméo S. Tanessong. Projected trends of extreme rainfall events from CMIP5 models over Central Africa. Atmospheric Science Letters. 2018; 19 (2):e803.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Roméo Chamani; Zéphirin D. Yepdo; Denis Sonkoué; Cédric N. Matsaguim; Derbetini A. Vondou; Roméo S. Tanessong. 2018. "Projected trends of extreme rainfall events from CMIP5 models over Central Africa." Atmospheric Science Letters 19, no. 2: e803.
Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region's adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.50C and 20C, the 0.50C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March-May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5-day rainfall are also detected between 1.5°C vs. 2°C global warming levels.
Wilfried Pokam Mba; Georges-Noel T Longandjo; Wilfran Moufouma-Okia; Jean-Pierre Bell; Rachel James; Derbetini Appolinaire Derbetini Vondou; Andreas Haensler; Thierry Christian Fotso Nguemo; Guy Merlin Guenang; Angennes Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou; Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo; Roland Ridick Takong; Grigory Nikulin; Christopher J Lennard; Alessandro Dosio. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa. Environmental Research Letters 2018, 13, 055011 .
AMA StyleWilfried Pokam Mba, Georges-Noel T Longandjo, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Jean-Pierre Bell, Rachel James, Derbetini Appolinaire Derbetini Vondou, Andreas Haensler, Thierry Christian Fotso Nguemo, Guy Merlin Guenang, Angennes Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou, Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo, Roland Ridick Takong, Grigory Nikulin, Christopher J Lennard, Alessandro Dosio. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa. Environmental Research Letters. 2018; 13 (5):055011.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWilfried Pokam Mba; Georges-Noel T Longandjo; Wilfran Moufouma-Okia; Jean-Pierre Bell; Rachel James; Derbetini Appolinaire Derbetini Vondou; Andreas Haensler; Thierry Christian Fotso Nguemo; Guy Merlin Guenang; Angennes Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou; Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo; Roland Ridick Takong; Grigory Nikulin; Christopher J Lennard; Alessandro Dosio. 2018. "Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa." Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 5: 055011.
This study evaluates the performance of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) at 25 km horizontal resolution in capturing the diurnal cycle of precipitation over Central Africa. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 0.25° × 0.25° rain-rates are used to evaluate RegCM4 simulation between 1998 and 2009. It is found a good agreement between the spatial distribution of the simulated and observed diurnal cycle of rainfall over the continent. Results indicate that the regional model exhibits a dry bias over the ocean. The minimum of the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation is too early over land and the amplitude is too weak over ocean. The major similarities in the phase are found over the continental regions, however, substantial differences are seen over the ocean. The propagating diurnal cycle of precipitation, evident in TRMM, is well captured by the model.
Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou; Zephirin D. Yepdo; Tanessong Romeo Steve; Tchakoutio Sandjon Alain; Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou. Diurnal cycle of rainfall over Central Africa simulated by RegCM. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 2017, 3, 1055 -1064.
AMA StyleDerbetini Appolinaire Vondou, Zephirin D. Yepdo, Tanessong Romeo Steve, Tchakoutio Sandjon Alain, Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou. Diurnal cycle of rainfall over Central Africa simulated by RegCM. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 2017; 3 (3):1055-1064.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDerbetini Appolinaire Vondou; Zephirin D. Yepdo; Tanessong Romeo Steve; Tchakoutio Sandjon Alain; Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou. 2017. "Diurnal cycle of rainfall over Central Africa simulated by RegCM." Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 3, no. 3: 1055-1064.
Simulations of the regional climate model REMO at 25 and 50 km (0.44° and 0.22°, respectively) grid spacing are evaluated over Central Africa for the period 1998–2010. The model's ability to simulate various aspects of the observed climate is assessed with a main focus on precipitation characteristics. The results show that the REMO model has a good skill to reproduce the main regional features of the mean climate fields as well as seasonal and annual cycles, although some biases still exist. The model captures the variability in precipitation anomalies between different events associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Generally, the findings remain largely insensitive to the refinement of the horizontal resolution, especially when considering the regional scale. This points the fact that the model dynamical and physical setup may have to be adjusted when setting a focus on the Central African region, in order to better represent the climate mechanisms. It is further found that REMO is capable of capturing the basic features of climatic extremes and accurately represents the shape of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation data. Daily characteristics of precipitation are simulated much better by REMO at 25 km.
Derbetini A. Vondou; Andreas Haensler. Evaluation of simulations with the regional climate model REMO over Central Africa and the effect of increased spatial resolution. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37, 741 -760.
AMA StyleDerbetini A. Vondou, Andreas Haensler. Evaluation of simulations with the regional climate model REMO over Central Africa and the effect of increased spatial resolution. International Journal of Climatology. 2017; 37 ():741-760.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDerbetini A. Vondou; Andreas Haensler. 2017. "Evaluation of simulations with the regional climate model REMO over Central Africa and the effect of increased spatial resolution." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. : 741-760.
In this paper, the regional climate model REMO is used to investigate the added value of downscaling low resolutions global climate models (GCMs) and the climate change projections over Central Africa. REMO was forced by two GCMs (EC-Earth and MPI-ESM), for the period from 1950 to 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The performance of the REMO simulations for current climate is compared first with REMO simulation driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, then by the corresponding GCMs in order to determine whether REMO outputs are able to effectively lead to added value at local scale. We found that REMO is generally able to better represent some aspects of the rainfall inter-annual variability, the daily rainfall intensity distribution as well as the intra-seasonal variability of the Central African monsoon, though few biases are still evident. It is also found that the boundary conditions strongly influences the spatial distribution of seasonal 2-m temperature and rainfall. From the analysis of the climate change signal from the present period 1976–2005 to the future 2066–2095, we found that all models project a warming at the end of the twenty-first century although the details of the climate change differ between REMO and the driving GCMs, specifically in REMO where we observe a general decrease in rainfall. This rainfall decrease is associated with delayed onset and anticipated recession of the Central African monsoon and a shortening of the rainy season. Small-scales variability of the climate change signal for 2-m temperature are usually smaller than that of the large-scales climate change part. For rainfall however, small-scales induce change of about 70% compared to the present climate statistics.
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfried M. Pokam; Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou; Ismaila Diallo; Andreas Haensler; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Pierre Honoré Kamsu Tamo; Amadou T. Gaye; Clément Tchawoua. On the added value of the regional climate model REMO in the assessment of climate change signal over Central Africa. Climate Dynamics 2017, 49, 3813 -3838.
AMA StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Derbetini A. Vondou, Wilfried M. Pokam, Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou, Ismaila Diallo, Andreas Haensler, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou, Pierre Honoré Kamsu Tamo, Amadou T. Gaye, Clément Tchawoua. On the added value of the regional climate model REMO in the assessment of climate change signal over Central Africa. Climate Dynamics. 2017; 49 (11-12):3813-3838.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThierry C. Fotso-Nguemo; Derbetini A. Vondou; Wilfried M. Pokam; Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou; Ismaila Diallo; Andreas Haensler; Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou; Pierre Honoré Kamsu Tamo; Amadou T. Gaye; Clément Tchawoua. 2017. "On the added value of the regional climate model REMO in the assessment of climate change signal over Central Africa." Climate Dynamics 49, no. 11-12: 3813-3838.
The main goal of this work is a feasibility study for the Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) method applied to tropical convective precipitation regimes over Central and West Africa. The study uses outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop and test the BPO technique. The model ran from June 01 to September 30 of 2010 and 2011. The BPO method is applied in each grid point and then in each climatic zone. Prior (climatic) distribution function is estimated from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for the period 2002-2011. Many distribution functions have been tested for the fitting. Weibull distribution is found to be a suitable fitting function as shown by goodness of fit (gof) test in both cases. The rain pattern increases with the value of the probability p. BPO method noticeably improves the distribution of precipitation as shown by the spatial correlation coefficients. It better detects certain observed maxima compared to the raw WRF outputs. Posterior distribution (forecasting) functions allow for a simulated rainfall amount, to deduce the probability that observed rainfall falls above a given threshold. The probability of observing rainfall above a given threshold increases with simulated rainfall amounts.
Romeo S. Tanessong; Derbetini A. Vondou; P. Moudi Igri; F. Mkankam Kamga. Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Central and West Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2017, 07, 263 -286.
AMA StyleRomeo S. Tanessong, Derbetini A. Vondou, P. Moudi Igri, F. Mkankam Kamga. Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Central and West Africa. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences. 2017; 07 (03):263-286.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRomeo S. Tanessong; Derbetini A. Vondou; P. Moudi Igri; F. Mkankam Kamga. 2017. "Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Central and West Africa." Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 07, no. 03: 263-286.