This study introduces a novel hybrid forecasting model for coking coal prices, integrating complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, enhanced by an improved fruit fly optimization algorithm (IFOA). The approach begins with CEEMDAN decomposing the coking coal price sequence into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual component, effectively mitigating non-stationarity and nonlinearity. High- and low-frequency IMFs are differentiated using a single-sample T-test, with high-frequency components consolidated to minimize noise interference. Subsequently, the IFOA algorithm optimizes LSTM hyperparameters, boosting both generalization and prediction precision. Empirical validation, leveraging the Platts price index for four major imported coking coal varieties, demonstrates that the CEEMDAN-IFOA-LSTM model significantly outperforms a broad range of benchmarks, including ANN, IFOA-LSSVR, CEEMDAN-LSTM, LSTM, BiLSTM, TCN, IFOA-LSTM, CEEMDAN-FOA-LSTM, CEEMDAN-PSO-LSTM, and CEEMDAN-GA-LSTM, achieving reduced root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The study concludes that this model adeptly addresses the challenges of nonlinear coupling and hyperparameter optimization, offering a reliable tool for coking coal price forecasting. Future research will aim to refine the model further to adapt to diverse market conditions and enhance forecasting accuracy.

Reducing regional inequality is one of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) established by the United Nations. However, a persistent regional disparity known as the “Mezzogiorno Trap” presents a significant challenge. The underdeveloped regions that fall into the “Mezzogiorno Trap”, even though they can narrow the gap with other regions through substantial support, see the disparity widen again when the level of assistance starts to decline. This paper proposes a methodology for identifying the “Mezzogiorno Trap”. By employing this approach and combining panel data on Chinese agriculture from 2015 to 2021, it is discovered that despite the overall development of the Chinese agricultural economy during this period, the “Mezzogiorno Trap” still exists. The paper analyzes the reasons behind the “Mezzogiorno Trap” in the Chinese agricultural economy and presents constructive recommendations based on the research findings. The research process demonstrates that this methodology is better suited for studying regional disparities in specific economic sectors, and the obtained results are more stable and reliable.

In the Chinese futures market, agricultural product futures play a crucial role. While previous studies have primarily relied on historical price data and fundamental financial indicators of agricultural product futures, there is a growing recognition of the value that lies within the vast amounts of textual data generated in the financial domain. Our study specifically focuses on the limitations of existing methods in capturing the complex relationships and rich semantic information embedded in these textual sources. This article designs a CIMA AttGRU (CIMA-AttGRU) model for soybean futures, which is a forecasting method for the agricultural product market. This model uniquely integrates Collective Intrinsic Mode Analysis (CIMA) with an Attention-Gated Recurrent Unit (AttGRU), leveraging the strengths of both techniques to enhance predictive accuracy and adaptability. The rationale behind employing the CIMA-AttGRU model lies in its ability to effectively tackle the inherent challenges of financial market analysis. By incorporating CIMA, the model adeptly filters out market noise, directly addressing the challenge of high volatility. Additionally, with its attention mechanism, the CIMA-AttGRU targets the issue of non-linear patterns by allowing dynamic adjustment to temporal dependencies, offering differential learning capabilities crucial for capturing the nuanced fluctuations in futures prices. Complementing the CIMA and AttGRU, the integration of Class-wise Adversarial Domain Adaptation (CADA) further refines the model’s robustness, addressing the critical challenge of domain adaptivity. This aspect is particularly vital for edamame futures, where price determinants can vary significantly over time and across regions. Our empirical results demonstrate a significant improvement in forecasting precision, with the CIMA-AttGRU model achieving a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reduction of 15% and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) reduction of 20% compared to conventional models. This superior performance, especially in terms of prediction accuracy and handling market fluctuations, highlights the improve of the model compared to existing methods and has made significant explorations in agricultural market forecasting.