The process of rapid urbanization has been causing non-negligible disturbances to our ecosystems, which has aggravated the mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand. A clear understanding of the relationship between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization is crucial as it could have a lot of significance for implementing ecological compensation and conservation action. Although a large number of studies have explored this problem, previous studies have focused primarily on the spatial mismatching of the ESs, and only a few studies have considered the spatial relationship between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization at the watershed scale. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, this study quantitatively assesses the supply and demand of five ESs, including carbon sequestration, water retention, soil conservation, food production, and recreational opportunity. The bivariate Moran’s I method was used to analyze and visualize the spatial correlation between the ES supply–demand mismatch and urbanization. The results indicate that both the total supply and the total demand of the five ESs increased, while the increasing rate of total demand was higher than the total supply of the ESs; this resulted in a significant spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of the ESs from 2000 to 2020. There is also a negative spatial correlation between the ES supply–demand and urbanization, while the results of local spatial clustering have obvious spatial heterogeneity. The metropolis and its surrounding counties are mostly the ES supply and demand deficit area, but some surrounding counties have managed to transform a deficit into a surplus. These results indicate that urbanization has a certain interference on the mismatch of the ES supply and demand, and this interference is not irreversible. Moreover, this study provides a reliable reference for government management in the context of balancing urbanization and the ecosystem.

Driven by rapid urbanization, land use patterns have undergone dramatic changes, which have in turn influenced ecosystem services (ESs). The government has implemented ecological compensation and conservation actions to mitigate this negative impact, especially in metropolises. However, whether these measures will have the desired effect remains unclear. Therefore, understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics of ESs and their driving factors are crucial for regional development. In this study, we quantified carbon storage, water yield and soil conservation services based on land use maps. A Geographical Detector (GD) was used to analyze the driving mechanisms of ES changes in Beijing from 1985 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the obvious landscape pattern changes are urbanization, afforestation and cultivated land degradation in Beijing, (2) the three services showed an increasing trend overall, but the changes were different in each period, (3) in general, land use change is the main factor affecting ESs, and the urbanization and afforestation contributed the most. These results suggest that in highly urbanized metropolises, humans can still balance the demands of regional development and ESs reasonable planning. This study highlights the importance of afforestation for ESs, the necessity of harmonizing environmental concerns and human activities, and the need to conduct ecological management in Beijing to protect the ecological environment and coordinate regional development.

Rapid urbanization has affected ecosystem stability, and the construction of ecological security patterns (ESPs) can rationally allocate resources and achieve ecological protection. Priority evaluation of critical areas can maximize the benefits of ecological protection, which is crucial for sustainable urban development. However, most prior studies have focused on assessing individual elements of the ESP, rarely considering both the protection priority of ecological sources and corridors. We constructed ESPs for the Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) from 2000 to 2020 and evaluated the priority of ecological sources and corridors for protection. The findings indicated that high-level ecological sources exhibited higher overall landscape connectivity and ecosystem service values with lower patch fragmentation. The average area proportions of primary, secondary, and tertiary ecological sources in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 41.11%, 23.03%, and 29.86%, respectively. High-level ecological corridors had shorter lengths and offered higher comprehensive ecosystem service values. The total length of secondary corridors exceeded that of primary corridors by 1951.19 km, 650.39 km, and 2238.18 km in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Primary corridors, which connected fragmented and isolated sources, should have their ecological land percentage increased to enhance connectivity. Secondary corridors connected two independent and distant sources, providing the basis for ecological protection in the intervening area, whose surrounding habitats should be protected. This study identifies the ecological protection priority and offers a theoretical basis and practical reference for balancing urban development with ecological protection.

Prediction of forest carbon sink in the future is important for understanding mechanisms concerning the increase in carbon sinks and emission reduction, and for realizing the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and global carbon neutrality. Based on stand volume data of permanent monitoring plots of the successive national forest inventories from 2004 to 2018, and combined with multiple variables, such as climatic factors, soil properties, stand attributes, and topographic features, the random forest algorithm was used to predict the stand volume growth-loss and then calculated the forest biomass and its carbon sink potential between 2015 to 2060 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China. From 2015 to 2060, the predicted forest biomass carbon storage and density increased from 3053.27 to 6721.61 Tg C and from 33.75 to 66.12 Mg C hm⁻², respectively. The predicted forest biomass carbon sink decreased from 90.58 to 73.98 Tg C yr⁻¹, and the average forest biomass carbon storage and sink were ranked in descending order: Yunnan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai. The forest biomass carbon storage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will increase by 3.67 Pg C from 2015 to 2060. The proportion of forest C sinks on the regional scale to C emissions on the national scale will increase from 2.9% in 2021–2030 to 4.3% in 2041–2050. These results indicate higher forest carbon sequestration efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the future. Our results also suggest that improved forest management in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River will help to enhance forest carbon sink in the future.

The match relationship between urbanization and ecosystem services (ESs) is a cornerstone of achieving sustainable development. However, the evolution patterns of urbanization/ecosystem service (UES) synergies under economic polarization in the rapid urbanization process remain poorly understood. This study integrates bivariate local Moran’s index and correlation analysis methods to examine the match relationship between urbanization and three key ESs (water yield, carbon sequestration, and food production) from 2000 to 2020 and explores the impact of intra-city disparities on the match relationship of urbanization and ESs. The findings revealed that urbanization and three ecosystem services showed increasing trends during 2000–2020 simultaneously. The spatial aggregation pattern of urbanization and ecosystem services showed smaller variations from 2000 to 2020. There was a High-High aggregation between urbanization and water yield in urban built-up areas and primarily High-Low aggregations between urbanization, carbon sequestration, and food production. Furthermore, the impact of urbanization on ESs decreased with increasing urban polarization. In particular, the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan region still demonstrated pronounced economic polarization, suggesting disparities in economic development within its urban core. This study highlights the importance of mitigating the adverse effects of urban polarization on ESs and fostering resilient and sustainable urban ecosystems in rapidly developing regions.