One of the controversial issues in the trade negotiations carried out with the World Trade Organization deals with agricultural supports related to production, which is claimed to disrupt the market system by creating an imbalance in supply and demand in the domestic market and to cause world trade contraction. In this context, the aim of this study is to examine the production effect of the deficiency payments and land-based direct supports widely used in Turkey. The study conducts a panel autoregressive distributed lag analysis for 11 selected agricultural products (wheat, corn, sunflower, seed cotton, paddy, soybean, canola, safflower, tea, dried beans, and olives) for the 2002-2019 period. The findings from the study are as follows: i) Increases in deficiency payments and land-based direct supports increase short and long run production. However, land-based direct supports have less of an effect on production. ii) While increases in input prices have a negative short run effect on production, the long run effect is the opposite. iii) Agricultural product price is not an important indicator for producers. This finding can be explained by the fact that farmers accept agricultural supports as a complement to the price variable in their production decisions. iv) Increases in the minimum wage added to the model based on Turkey’s structural characteristics have a negative long run impact on production. v) No statistically significant relationship exists between the number of tractors used to represent agricultural mechanization and the amount of production.

Turkey is one of those countries where housing market has been most severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. Today the effects of the outbreak have been eliminated significantly. This study retrospectively looks at the days when the world faced a widespread outbreak of a pandemic and investigates the effect of the pandemic and the changes in consumer confidence on housing prices and the volatility of housing prices. Considering the structural breaks in the analysis period (2010:q1-2022:q4 quarterly), we used the Lee and Strazicich structural break unit root test as a research method. The results show that an increase in costs due to a break in the supply chain and containment measures forcing the workforce to stay at home affected the housing supply adversely. It is observable that expansionary economic policies and social assistance programs have a positive effect on housing demand. In this regard, negative supply shock and positive demand pressure are seen to be the determinants of the recent housing price increases in Turkey. However, while there is a positive relationship between consumer confidence and house prices, the effect of house prices on the volatility is statistically insignificant.

Bu çalışma, Türkiye Cumhuriyetinin yüz yıllık tarihindeki tarım sektörünün dönüşüm sürecine ışık tutmaktadır. Söz konusu dönüşüm süreci birçok açıdan önemlidir zira Türkiye’nin politik, sosyolojik ve ekonomik dinamikleri ve hatta kırılımları açısından belirleyici bir faktördür. Bu durum göz önünde bulundurularak, bu makalede, Türkiye’nin uyguladığı tarım politikaları beş dönem altında tahlil edilmiştir. Amaç, Türk tarım sektörüne hakim olan politikaları, dönemin koşulları ile birlikte değerlendirmektir. Söz konusu politikaların etki ve sonuçlarını görmek amacıyla geniş bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar tarım sektörünün ekonomi içindeki ağırlığının zamanla azaldığını göstermektedir. Ancak dezavantaj gibi görülen bu durum aslında Türkiye’nin tecrübe ettiği büyüme, gelişme ve modernleşme sürecinin kaçınılmaz bir sonucudur. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye’de tarım sektörü kırsal nüfus, tarımsal istihdam ve gıda arz güvenliği gibi nedenlerle, hala göz ardı edilemeyecek kadar büyük öneme sahiptir. Fakat Cumhuriyetin ilk dönemlerinden beri devam eden tarımsal arazilerin küçük ölçekli ve çok parçalı olması, verimsizlik ve girdilerde ithalata bağımlı olunması gibi yapısal problemler, Türk tarımının önündeki en büyük risk faktörleri olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır.

In this paper, the relationship between Türkiye’s manufacturing industry exports and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) is examined using monthly data from 2013:01 to 2023:12. Estimations performed using the ARDL approach indicate that GEPU does not significantly affect manufacturing industry exports in Türkiye. This finding suggests that Turkish manufacturing industry exporters maintain stable and long-term trade relations. Consistent with expectations, foreign demand positively influences exports, while the appreciation of the Turkish Lira has a negative impact. To enhance manufacturing industry exports, it is recommended to strengthen commercial and diplomatic ties, enhance international cooperation, mitigate exchange rate risks through expanded hedging mechanisms, and invest in human capital and technology.