Current models of progression in neurodegenerative diseases use neuroimaging measures that are averaged across pre-defined regions of interest (ROIs). Such models are unable to recover fine details of atrophy patterns; they tend to impose an assumption of strong spatial correlation within each ROI and no correlation among ROIs. Such assumptions may be violated by the influence of underlying brain network connectivity on pathology propagation - a strong hypothesis e.g. in Alzheimer's Disease. Here we present DIVE: Data-driven Inference of Vertexwise Evolution. DIVE is an image-based disease progression model with single-vertex resolution, designed to reconstruct long-term patterns of brain pathology from short-term longitudinal data sets. DIVE clusters vertex-wise (i.e. point-wise) biomarker measurements on the cortical surface that have similar temporal dynamics across a patient population, and concurrently estimates an average trajectory of vertex measurements in each cluster. DIVE uniquely outputs a parcellation of the cortex into areas with common progression patterns, leading to a new signature for individual diseases. DIVE further estimates the disease stage and progression speed for every visit of every subject, potentially enhancing stratification for clinical trials or management. On simulated data, DIVE can recover ground truth clusters and their underlying trajectory, provided the average trajectories are sufficiently different between clusters. We demonstrate DIVE on data from two cohorts: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Dementia Research Centre (DRC), UK. The DRC cohort contains patients with Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) as well as typical Alzheimer's disease (tAD). DIVE finds similar spatial patterns of atrophy for tAD subjects in the two independent datasets (ADNI and DRC), and further reveals distinct patterns of pathology in different diseases (tAD vs PCA) and for distinct types of biomarker data - cortical thickness from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) vs amyloid load from Positron Emission Tomography (PET). We demonstrate that DIVE stages have potential clinical relevance, despite being based only on imaging data, by showing that the stages correlate with cognitive test scores. Finally, DIVE can be used to estimate a fine-grained spatial distribution of pathology in the brain using any kind of voxelwise or vertexwise measures including Jacobian compression maps, fractional anisotropy (FA) maps from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) or other PET measures.

Model-based investigations of trans-neuronal spreading mechanisms in neurodegenerative diseases relate the pattern of pathology severity to the brain's connectivity matrix, which reveals information about how pathology propagates through the connectivity network. Such network models typically use networks based on functional or structural connectivity in young and healthy individuals, and only end-stage patterns of pathology, thereby ignoring/excluding the effects of normal ageing and disease progression. Here we examine the sequence of changes in the elderly brain's anatomical connectivity over the course of a neurodegenerative disease. We do this in a data-driven manner that is not dependent upon clinical disease stage, by using event-based disease progression modelling. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, we sequence the progressive decline of anatomical connectivity, as quantified by graph-theory metrics, in the Alzheimer's disease brain. Ours is the first single model to contribute to understanding all three of the nature, the location, and the sequence of changes to anatomical connectivity in the human brain due to Alzheimer’s disease. Our experimental results reveal new insights into Alzheimer's disease: that degeneration of anatomical connectivity in the brain may be a viable, even early, biomarker and should be considered when studying such neurodegenerative diseases.

Background and Objectives Longitudinal measurements of brain atrophy using structural MRI (sMRI) can provide powerful markers for tracking disease progression in neurodegenerative diseases. In this study, we use a disease progression model to learn individual-level disease times and hence reveal a new timeline of sMRI changes in Huntington disease (HD). Methods We use data from the 2 largest cohort imaging studies in HD—284 participants from TRACK-HD (100 control, 104 premanifest, and 80 manifest) and 159 participants from PREDICT-HD (36 control and 128 premanifest)—to train and test the model. We longitudinally register T1-weighted sMRI scans from 3 consecutive time points to reduce intraindividual variability and calculate regional brain volumes using an automated segmentation tool with rigorous manual quality control. Results Our model reveals, for the first time, the relative magnitude and timescale of subcortical and cortical atrophy changes in HD. We find that the largest (∼20% average change in magnitude) and earliest (∼2 years before average abnormality) changes occur in the subcortex (pallidum, putamen, and caudate), followed by a cascade of changes across other subcortical and cortical regions over a period of ∼11 years. We also show that sMRI, when combined with our disease progression model, provides improved prediction of onset over the current best method (root mean square error = 4.5 years and maximum error = 7.9 years vs root mean square error = 6.6 years and maximum error = 18.2 years). Discussion Our findings support the use of disease progression modeling to reveal new information from sMRI, which can potentially inform imaging marker selection for clinical trials.

Background: Compartmental analysis is a standard method to quantify metabolic processes using fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET). For liver studies, this analysis is complex due to the hepatocyte capability to dephosphorylate and release glucose and FDG into the blood. Moreover, a tracer is supplied to the liver by both the hepatic artery and the portal vein, which is not visible in PET images. This study developed an innovative computational approach accounting for the reversible nature of FDG in the liver and directly computing the portal vein tracer concentration by means of gut radioactivity measurements.Methods: Twenty-one mice were subdivided into three groups: the control group ‘CTR’ (n= 7) received no treatment, the short-term starvation group ‘STS’ (n= 7) was submitted to food deprivation with free access to water within 48 h before imaging, and the metformin group ‘MTF’ (n= 7) was treated with metformin (750 mg/Kg per day) for 1 month. All mice underwent a dynamic micro-PET study for 50 min after an¹⁸F-FDG injection. The compartmental analysis considered two FDG pools (phosphorylated and free) in both the gut and liver. A tracer was carried into the liver by the hepatic artery and the portal vein, and tracer delivery from the gut was considered as the sole input for portal vein tracer concentration. Accordingly, both the liver and gut were characterized by two compartments and two exchange coefficients. Each one of the two two-compartment models was mathematically described by a system of differential equations, and data optimization was performed by applying a Newton algorithm to the inverse problems associated to these differential systems.Results: All rate constants were stable in each group. The tracer coefficient from the free to the metabolized compartment in the liver was increased by STS, while it was unaltered by MTF. By contrast, the tracer coefficient from the metabolized to the free compartment was reduced by MTF and increased by STS.Conclusions: Data demonstrated that our method was able to analyze FDG kinetics under pharmacological or pathophysiological stimulation, quantifying the fraction of the tracer trapped in the liver or dephosphorylated and released into the bloodstream.