The financing function of land in China has been extensively documented, but little research has explored the role of land finance in the real estate market affecting local government debt. In light of the recent simultaneous increase in China’s real estate market risk and local government debt risk over the past two years, a pressing need to reevaluate the significance of land finance has arisen. Thus, this study explores the role of land finance in the relationship between the real estate market and local debt risk. The data were collected from 224 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2019. The study found that real estate market prosperity significantly promotes the expansion of local government debt. Land finance acts as a mediator and a moderator in this relationship. The study also found that during periods of real estate market booms, local governments tend to sell more land, which reinforces their debt-raising behavior and exacerbates the impact of the real estate market on local government debt; during periods of real estate market downturns, local governments tend to decrease debt, but the government debt repayment risk increases significantly. Furthermore, the amplifying effect of land finance is more pronounced in economically developed regions and cities with higher public budget revenues.

Housing prices in China have experienced rapid growth in recent decades, and land finance has long been discussed as an important factor in this growth. In this paper, we explore the interactions among housing prices, land transfer revenue and infrastructure investment from the perspective of government revenue and expenditure. Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2017, the empirical results show that land transfer revenue, infrastructure investment and housing prices are causally related and result in positive feedback. The grouped regression results show that infrastructure investment has greater impacts on housing prices in eastern region cities than in the other cities. In contrast, in the central and western regions, land sales revenue has a greater impact on housing prices, indicating that cities in less-developed areas are more dependent on land finance than are those in more developed regions. Finally, we use the vector error correction model (VECM) to add control variables for robustness testing. The results show that land transfer income and infrastructure investment have a positive impact on housing prices. Our results provide some references for the stable development of housing markets in China.

The factors affecting migrants’ settlement in host cities have been widely discussed, but the impact of housing financial support is still under exploration. This paper explores the effect of the Housing Provident Fund (HPF), which is a highly debated but markedly important housing financial policy in China, on migrants’ settlement intentions. Based on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), our results reveal that the HPF significantly improves migrants’ settlement intentions by increasing housing purchase intentions. The robustness test results further show that expanding the coverage of the HPF has a positive effect on urbanization. However, we highlight the conflict between the HPF effects and its specific impact on differentiated levels of coverage. We further discuss its potential challenges, describe a pilot study of a voluntary HPF in China, and offer recommendations for urban reform.