We determined the effects of past and future climate changes on the distribution of the Montivipera raddei species complex (MRC) that contains rare and endangered viper species limited to Iran, Turkey and Armenia. We also investigated the current distribution of MRC to locate unidentified isolated populations as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas for their conservation. Present distribution of MRC was modeled based on ecological variables and model performance was evaluated by field visits. Some individuals at the newly identified populations showed uncommon morphological characteristics. The distribution map of MRC derived through modeling was then compared with the distribution of protected areas in the region. We estimated the effectiveness of the current protected area network to be 10%, which would be sufficient for conserving this group of species, provided adequate management policies and practices are employed. We further modeled the distribution of MRC in the past (21,000 years ago) and under two scenarios in the future (to 2070). These models indicated that climatic changes probably have been responsible for an upward shift in suitable habitats of MRC since the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to isolation of allopatric populations. Distribution will probably become much more restricted in the future as a result of the current rate of global warming. We conclude that climate change most likely played a major role in determining the distribution pattern of MRC, restricting allopatric populations to mountaintops due to habitat alterations. This long-term isolation has facilitated unique local adaptations among MRC populations, which requires further investigation. The suitable habitat patches identified through modeling constitute optimized solutions for inclusion in the network of protected areas in the region.

The common pheasant is listed as a nationally protected species in Iran because it faces many threats such as habitat destruction, pollution from pesticides and overhunting. The species’ habitat selection remains unknown in Iran; consequently, conservation planning for the species is hampered by this lack of information. In this study we used predictor variables including topographic, anthropogenic, land cover and climate and 122 occurrence points to model the distribution of common pheasant (subspecies P. c. talischensis), in Gilan province, Iran. The results showed that distance to agriculture and orchards as well as distance to plantation forests were the most important variables in predicting species distribution. Furthermore, we found that the total potential suitable habitat for the species in Gilan province is 315,990 hectares. We observed a shift of the species to higher altitudes in the province. We recommend raising awareness about the presence of the species especially among private landowners, creating a network of protected areas on private land, and changing land-use policies at the provincial level as essential measures for the conservation of the species in Gilan province. Our results can be applied to management and conservation of the species in other modified or rapidly changing landscapes.

Summary: We developed a habitat suitability model for wintering populations of the Asian Houbara BustardChlamydotis macqueeniiin Iran and determined environmental variables affecting its occurrence. Our results indicate that various patches in central, western and eastern Iran provide the most suitable habitats for the Houbara. Annual precipitation, slope and distance to croplands were the most important variables for predicting Houbara occurrence. We also determined the effects future climate changes on the distribution of the Houbara in Iran. Results showed that suitable habitats for the wintering Houbara will increase in Iran, but will also considerably shift under future climatic conditions. The distribution maps that we present for the present and future climatic conditions can have important implications for the conservation and management of Houbara populations in Iran.