This study investigates the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuels in order to achieve the well below 2 °C, preferably 1.5 °C target set in the Paris Agreement. For this purpose, TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM), a global energy system model is used. In order to investigate global hydrogen and synfuel flows, cost potential curves are aggregated and implemented into TIAM, as well as demand technologies for the end use sectors. Furthermore, hydrogen and synfuel trades are established using liquid hydrogen transport (LH₂), and both new and existing technologies for synfuels are implemented. To represent a wide range of possible future events, four different scenarios are considered with different characteristics of climate and security of supply policies. The results show that in the case of climate policy, the renewable energies need tremendous expansion. The final energy consumption is shifting towards the direct use of electricity, while certain demand technologies (e.g., aviation and international shipping) require hydrogen and synfuels for full decarbonization. Due to different security of supply policies, the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuel production and exports is shifting, while the 1.5 °C target remains feasible in the different climate policy scenarios. Considering climate policy, Middle East Asia is the preferred region for hydrogen export. For synfuel production, several regions are competitive, including Middle East Asia, Mexico, Africa, South America and Australia. In the case of security of supply policies, Middle East Asia is sharing the export volume with Africa, while only minor changes can be seen in the synfuel supply.

This paper presents the potentials and costs of synthetic fuels (synfuels) produced by renewable energy via PEM water electrolysis and the subsequent Fischer–Tropsch process for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 in selected countries across the globe. The renewable energy potential was determined by the open-source tool pyGRETA and includes photovoltaic, onshore wind, and biomass. Carbon dioxide is obtained from biomass and the atmosphere by direct air capture. The potentials and costs were determined by aggregating minimal cost energy systems for each location on a state level. Each linear energy system was modelled and optimised by the optimisation framework urbs. The analysis focused on decentralised and off-grid synthetic fuels’ production. The transportation costs were roughly estimated based on the distance to the nearest maritime port for export. The distribution infrastructure was not considered since the already-existing infrastructure for fossil fuels can be easily adopted. The results showed that large amounts of synthetic fuels are available for EUR 110/MWh (USD 203/bbl) mainly in Africa, Central and South America, as well as Australia for 2050. This corresponds to a cost reduction of more than half compared to EUR 250/MWh (USD 461/bbl) in 2020. The synfuels’ potentials follow the photovoltaic potentials because of the corresponding low levelised cost of electricity. Batteries are in particular used for photovoltaic-dominant locations, and transportation costs are low compared to production costs.

To achieve the global 1.5 °C target and realize a climate-neutral energy system, decarbonizing all sectors of final energy consumption is crucial. Green hydrogen and green ammonia emerge as pivotal in decarbonizing, particularly in the industrial sector by 2100, given their potential as emission-free energy carriers. These can be efficiently produced in regions abundant in renewable resources, with lower production costs and then exported to high-demand areas. This study explores the most cost-effective global trade routes for supplying these energy carriers, considering future electricity production, the role of renewables by 2100, global emissions, final energy consumption, and the subsequent production and logistics of hydrogen and ammonia. We introduce four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), a 1.5 °C scenario (1_5D) aligning with specific CO₂ budgets, and two variants of the 1_5D scenario (SoS1 and SoS2) with varying restrictions on imports and domestic production. Employing the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM), our findings suggest a future energy landscape dominated by the electricity sector, with solar PV contributing over 50% of green electricity by 2100. Hydrogen demand could reach 13,500 TWh compared to 155,000 TWh global energy demand. Without import constraints, Middle East Asia, due to its renewable resource richness and strategic location, could fulfill the global demand for green hydrogen and ammonia.