Canada’s managed boreal forest, 54% of the nation’s total boreal forest area, stores 28 Pg carbon (C) in biomass, dead organic matter, and soil pools. The net C balance is dominated by the difference of two large continuous fluxes: C uptake (net primary production) and release during decomposition (heterotrophic respiration). Additional releases of C can be high in years, or in areas, that experience large anthropogenic or natural disturbances. From 1990 to 2008, Canada’s managed boreal forest has acted as C sink of 28 Tg C year⁻¹, removing CO₂from the atmosphere to replace the 17 Tg of C annually harvested and store an additional 11 Tg of C year⁻¹in ecosystem C pools. A large fraction (57%) of the C harvested since 1990 remains stored in wood products and solid waste disposal sites in Canada and abroad, replacing C emitted from the decay or burning of wood harvested prior to 1990 and contributing to net increases in product and landfill C pools. Wood product use has reduced emissions in other sectors by substituting for emission-intensive products (concrete, steel). The C balance of the unmanaged boreal forest is currently unknown. The future C balance of the Canadian boreal forest will affect the global atmospheric C budget and influence the mitigation efforts required to attain atmospheric CO₂stabilization targets. The single biggest threat to C stocks is human-caused climate change. Large C stocks have accumulated in the boreal because decomposition is limited by cold temperatures and often anoxic environments. Increases in temperatures and disturbance rates could result in a large net C source during the remainder of this century and beyond. Uncertainties about the impacts of global change remain high, but we emphasize the asymmetry of risk: sustained large-scale increases in productivity are unlikely to be of sufficient magnitude to offset higher emissions from increased disturbances and heterotrophic respiration. Reducing the uncertainties of the current and future C balance of Canada’s 270 Mha of boreal forest requires addressing gaps in monitoring, observation, and quantification of forest C dynamics, with particular attention to 125 Mha of unmanaged boreal forest with extensive areas of deep organic soils, peatlands, and permafrost containing large quantities of C that are vulnerable to global warming.

Canada's forests play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle because of their large and dynamic C stocks. Detailed monitoring of C exchange between forests and the atmosphere and improved understanding of the processes that affect the net ecosystem exchange of C are needed to improve our understanding of the terrestrial C budget. We estimated the C budget of Canada's 2.3 × 10⁶ km² managed forests from 1990 to 2008 using an empirical modelling approach driven by detailed forestry datasets. We estimated that average net primary production (NPP) during this period was 809 ± 5 Tg C yr⁻¹ (352 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) and net ecosystem production (NEP) was 71 ± 9 Tg C yr⁻¹ (31 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Harvesting transferred 45 ± 4 Tg C yr⁻¹ out of the ecosystem and 45 ± 4 Tg C yr⁻¹ within the ecosystem (from living biomass to dead organic matter pools). Fires released 23 ± 16 Tg C yr⁻¹ directly to the atmosphere, and fires, insects and other natural disturbances transferred 52 ± 41 Tg C yr⁻¹ from biomass to dead organic matter pools, from where C will gradually be released through decomposition. Net biome production (NBP) was only 2 ± 20 Tg C yr⁻¹ (1 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹); the low C sequestration ratio (NBP/NPP=0.3%) is attributed to the high average age of Canada's managed forests and the impact of natural disturbances. Although net losses of ecosystem C occurred during several years due to large fires and widespread bark beetle outbreak, Canada's managed forests were a sink for atmospheric CO₂ in all years, with an uptake of 50 ± 18 Tg C yr⁻¹ [net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂=−22 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹].

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO₂e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO₂e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO₂e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.