The absolute number of new cancer patients that will require at least one course of radiotherapy in each country of Europe was estimated. The incidence and relative frequency of cancer types from the year 2012 European Cancer Observatory estimates were used in combination with the population-based stage at diagnosis from five cancer registries. These data were applied to the decision trees of the evidence-based indications to calculate the Optimal Utilization Proportion (OUP) by tumour site. In the minimum scenario, the OUP ranged from 47.0% in the Russian Federation to 53.2% in Belgium with no clear geographical pattern of the variability among countries. The impact of stage at diagnosis on the OUP by country was rather limited. Within the 24 countries where data on actual use of radiotherapy were available, a gap between optimal and actual use has been observed in most of the countries. The actual utilization of radiotherapy is significantly lower than the optimal use predicted from the evidence based estimates in the literature. This discrepancy poses a major challenge for policy makers when planning the resources at the national level to improve the provision in European countries.

The objective of this HERO study was to assess the number of new cancer patients that will require at least one course of radiotherapy by 2025. European cancer incidence data by tumor site and country for 2012 and 2025 was extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. The projection of the number of new cases took into account demographic factors (age and size of the population). Population based stages at diagnosis were taken from four European countries. Incidence and stage data were introduced in the Australian Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) model. Among the different tumor sites, the highest expected relative increase by 2025 in treatment courses was prostate cancer (24%) while lymphoma (13%), head and neck (12%) and breast cancer (10%) were below the average. Based on the projected cancer distributions in 2025, a 16% expected increase in the number of radiotherapy treatment courses was estimated. This increase varied across European countries from less than 5% to more than 30%. With the already existing disparity in radiotherapy resources in mind, the data provided here should act as a leverage point to raise awareness among European health policy makers of the need for investment in radiotherapy.

The impact of differences in the distribution of major cancer sites and stages at diagnosis among 4 European countries on the optimal utilization proportion (OUP) of patients who should receive external beam radiotherapy was assessed within the framework of the ESTRO-HERO project. Data from Australian Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CCORE) were used. Population based stages at diagnosis from the cancer registries of Belgium, Slovenia, the Greater Poland region of Poland, and The Netherlands were used to assess the OUP for each country. A sensitivity analysis was carried out. The overall OUP by country varied from the lowest of 48.3% in Australia to the highest of 53.4% in Poland; among European countries the variation was limited to 3%. Cancer site specific OUPs showed differences according to the variability in stage at diagnosis across countries. The most important impact on the OUP by country was due to changes in relative frequency of tumours rather than stage at diagnosis. This methodology can be adapted using European data, thus facilitating the planning of resources required to cope with the demand for radiotherapy in Europe, taking into account the national variability in cancer incidence.

The analytical algorithm of Lynch syndrome (LS) is increasingly complex. BRAF V600E mutation and MLH1 promoter hypermethylation have been proposed as a screening tool for the identification of LS. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical usefulness and cost-effectiveness of both somatic alterations to improve the yield of the diagnostic algorithm of LS. A total of 122 colorectal tumors from individuals with family history of colorectal cancer that showed microsatellite instability and/or loss of mismatch repair (MMR) protein expression were studied. MMR germline mutations were detected in 57 cases (40 MLH1, 15 MSH2 and 2 MSH6). BRAF V600E mutation was assessed by single-nucleotide primer extension. MLH1 promoter hypermethylation was assessed by methylation-specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification in a subset of 71 cases with loss of MLH1 protein. A decision model was developed to estimate the incremental costs of alternative case-finding methods for detecting MLH1 mutation carriers. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of estimations. Sensitivity of the absence of BRAF mutations for depiction of LS patients was 96% (23/24) and specificity was 28% (13/47). Specificity of MLH1 promoter hypermethylation for depiction of sporadic tumors was 66% (31/47) and sensitivity of 96% (23/24). The cost per additional mutation detected when using hypermethylation analysis was lower when compared with BRAF study and germinal MLH1 mutation study. Somatic hypermethylation of MLH1 is an accurate and cost-effective pre-screening method in the selection of patients that are candidates for MLH1 germline analysis when LS is suspected and MLH1 protein expression is absent.