Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how ‘One Health’, where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 “National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance” (NSP-AMR) aims to reduce AMR morbidity by 50% through 20% reductions in human and 30% in animal antibacterial use (ABU). There is a need to understand the implications of such a plan within a One Health perspective. A model of ABU, gut colonisation with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria and transmission was calibrated using estimates of the prevalence of ESBL-producing bacteria in Thailand. This model was used to project the reduction in human ABR over 20 years (2020–2040) for each One Health driver, including individual transmission rates between humans, animals and the environment, and to estimate the long-term impact of the NSP-AMR intervention. The model predicts that human ABU was the most important factor in reducing the colonisation of humans with resistant bacteria (maximum 65.7–99.7% reduction). The NSP-AMR is projected to reduce human colonisation by 6.0–18.8%, with more ambitious targets (30% reductions in human ABU) increasing this to 8.5–24.9%. Our model provides a simple framework to explain the mechanisms underpinning ABR, suggesting that future interventions targeting the simultaneous reduction of transmission and ABU would help to control ABR more effectively in Thailand.

Background Identification of factors associated with decreased survival in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD) will allow more accurate prognosis. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is negatively associated with survival in dogs with DMVD. In human patients, multimarker strategies provide superior risk stratification compared with single markers. Hypothesis High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTnI) and other clinical variables will be associated with survival time in dogs with DMVD. Measuring hscTnI and NT-proBNP in combination will be prognostically superior to measurement of either marker alone. The rate of change of these markers will vary according to cause of death. Animals Client-owned dogs (n = 202) with DMVD of varying severity and age-matched healthy control dogs (n = 30) recruited from first opinion private practice. Methods Prospective cohort study relating clinical variables at enrollment in dogs with DMVD to survival time (all-cause, cardiac, and noncardiac mortality). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with survival. Measurements were obtained approximately every 6 months. Repeated measures models were constructed to assess changes over time. Results hscTnI, LVEDDN, heart rate, and age were independently associated with decreased survival time (all-cause mortality). Survival times were shortest in dogs in which both serum hscTnI and NT-proBNP were increased. hscTnI and NT-proBNP increased more rapidly in dogs that died of cardiac disease. Conclusions and Clinical Importance Serum hscTnI has prognostic value in dogs with DMVD. Measurement of NT-proBNP and hscTnI is prognostically superior to measuring either alone. Serial measurement strategies provide additional prognostic information.

Background: Several risk factors already have been determined for dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Risk factors often have been considered in isolation and have not always taken into account additional information provided by the history and physical examination (PE). Hypothesis/Objectives: Data obtained from history and PE of dogs with DMVD provide prognostic information and can be used for risk stratification. Animals: Client-owned dogs (n = 244) with DMVD recruited from first opinion practice. Methods: Prospective longitudinal follow-up of dogs with DMVD. History and PE data were obtained at 6-month intervals and analyzed with time-dependent Cox models to derive relative risk of cardiac death. Independent hazard ratios were used to derive a clinical severity score (CSS), the prognostic value of which was evaluated by analyzing the median survival times for different risk groups and ROC analysis. Analysis of the progression of CSS over time also was undertaken. Results: History of cough, exercise intolerance, decreased appetite, breathlessness (difficulty breathing) and syncope with PE findings of heart murmur intensity louder than III/VI and absence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia were independently associated with outcome and allowed development of the CSS. Clinical severity score distinguished groups of dogs with significantly different outcomes. Conclusions and Clinical Importance: Routinely obtained clinical findings allow risk stratification of dogs with DMVD. Results of ancillary diagnostic tests may be complementary to history and PE findings and always should be interpreted in conjunction with these findings.