One of the significant unanswered questions about COVID-19 epidemiology relates to the role of children in transmission. This study uses data on infections within households in order to estimate the susceptibility and infectivity of children compared to those of adults. The data were collected from households in the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, in which all household members were tested for COVID-19 using PCR (637 households, average household size of 5.3). In addition, serological tests were performed on a subset of the individuals in the study. Inspection of the PCR data shows that children are less likely to be tested positive compared to adults (25% of children positive over all households, 44% of adults positive over all households, excluding index cases), and the chance of being positive increases with age. Analysis of joint PCR/serological data shows that there is under-detection of infections in the PCR testing, which is more substantial in children. However, the differences in detection rates are not sufficient to account for the differences in PCR positive rates in the two age groups. To estimate relative transmission parameters, we employ a discrete stochastic model of the spread of infection within a household, allowing for susceptibility and infectivity parameters to differ among children and adults. The model is fitted to the household data using a simulated maximum likelihood approach. To adjust parameter estimates for under-detection of infections in the PCR results, we employ a multiple imputation procedure using estimates of under-detection in children and adults, based on the available serological data. We estimate that the susceptibility of children (under 20 years old) is 43% (95% CI: [31%, 55%]) of the susceptibility of adults. The infectivity of children was estimated to be 63% (95% CI: [37%, 88%]) relative to that of adults.

The efficacy of disease management programs in improving the outcome of heart failure patients remains uncertain and may vary across health systems. This study explores whether a countrywide disease management program is superior to usual care in reducing adverse health outcomes and improving well-being among community-dwelling adult patients with moderate-to-severe chronic heart failure who have universal access to advanced health-care services and technologies. In this multicenter open-label trial, 1,360 patients recruited after hospitalization for heart failure exacerbation (38%) or from the community (62%) were randomly assigned to either disease management or usual care. Disease management, delivered by multi-disciplinary teams, included coordination of care, patient education, monitoring disease symptoms and patient adherence to medication regimen, titration of drug therapy, and home tele-monitoring of body weight, blood pressure and heart rate. Patients assigned to usual care were treated by primary care practitioners and consultant cardiologists. The primary composite endpoint was the time elapsed till first hospital admission for heart failure exacerbation or death from any cause. Secondary endpoints included the number of all hospital admissions, health-related quality of life and depression during follow-up. Intention-to-treat comparisons between treatments were adjusted for baseline patient data and study center. During the follow-up, 388 (56.9%) patients assigned to disease management and 387 (57.1%) assigned to usual care had a primary endpoint event. The median (range) time elapsed until the primary endpoint event or end of study was 2.0 (0–5.0) years among patients assigned to disease management, and 1.8 (0–5.0) years among patients assigned to usual care (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.908; 95% confidence interval, 0.788 to 1.047). Hospital admissions were mostly (70%) unrelated to heart failure. Patients assigned to disease management had a better health-related quality of life and a lower depression score during follow-up. This comprehensive disease management intervention was not superior to usual care with respect to the primary composite endpoint, but it improved health-related quality of life and depression. A disease-centered approach may not suffice to make a significant impact on hospital admissions and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure who have universal access to health care. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00533013 . Trial registration date: 9 August 2007. Initial protocol release date: 20 September 2007.

Worldwide shortage of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection while the pandemic is still uncontrolled leads many states to the dilemma whether or not to vaccinate previously infected persons. Understanding the level of protection of previous infection compared to that of vaccination is critical for policy making. We analyze an updated individual-level database of the entire population of Israel to assess the protection efficacy of both prior infection and vaccination in preventing subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization with COVID-19, severe disease, and death due to COVID-19. Vaccination was highly effective with overall estimated efficacy for documented infection of 92·8% (CI:[92·6, 93·0]); hospitalization 94·2% (CI:[93·6, 94·7]); severe illness 94·4% (CI:[93·6, 95·0]); and death 93·7% (CI:[92·5, 94·7]). Similarly, the overall estimated level of protection from prior SARS-CoV-2 infection for documented infection is 94·8% (CI:[94·4, 95·1]); hospitalization 94·1% (CI:[91·9, 95·7]); and severe illness 96·4% (CI:[92·5, 98·3]). Our results question the need to vaccinate previously-infected individuals.

Summary: Background: One of the significant unanswered questions about COVID-19 epidemiology relates to the role of children in transmission. In this study we estimate susceptibility and infectivity of children compared to those of adults. Understanding the age-structured transmission dynamics of the outbreak provides precious and timely information to guide epidemic modelling and public health policy. Methods: Data were collected from households in the city of Bnei Brak, Israel, in which all household members were tested for COVID-19 using PCR. To estimate relative transmission parameters in the absence of data on who infected whom, we developed an estimation method based on a discrete stochastic dynamic model of the spread of the epidemic within a household. The model describes the propagation of the disease between household members allowing for susceptibility and infectivity parameters to vary among two age groups. The parameter estimates are obtained by a maximum likelihood method, where the likelihood function is computed based on the stochastic model via simulations. Findings: Inspection of the data reveals that children are less likely to become infected compared to adults (25% of children infected over all households, 44% of adults infected over all households, excluding index cases), and the chances of becoming infected increases with age. An interesting exception is that infants up to age one year are more likely to be infected than children between one and four. Using our modelling approach, we estimate that the susceptibility of children (under 20 years old) is 45% [40%, 55%] of the susceptibility of adults. The infectivity of children was estimated to be 85% [65%, 110%] relative to that of adults. Interpretation: It is widely observed that the percentage of children within confirmed cases is low. A common explanation is that children who are infected are less likely to develop symptoms than adults, and thus are less likely to be tested. We estimate that children are less susceptible to infection, which is an additional factor explaining their relatively low rate of occurrence within confirmed cases. Moreover, our results indicate that children, when infected, are somewhat less prone to infect others compared to adults; however, this result is not statistically significant. The resulting estimates of susceptibility and infectivity of children compared to adults are crucial for deciding on appropriate interventions, and for controlling the epidemic outbreak and its progress. These estimates can guide age-dependent public health policy such as school closure and opening. However, while our estimates of children’s susceptibility and infectivity are lower than those of adults within a household, it is important to bear in mind that their role in the spread of COVID-19 outside the household, is also affected by different contact patterns and hygiene habits.

Background: Ethnic minority populations exhibit disproportionately high rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Electronic health tools have the potential to facilitate the cultural adaptation and tailoring of T2DM education to improve the knowledge and management of diabetes mellitus (DM). Objective: This study aimed (1) to develop an adaptable Interactive Lifestyle Assessment, Counseling, and Education (I-ACE) software to support dietitian-delivered lifestyle counseling among low-socioeconomic status (SES) ethnic minority patients with T2DM and (2) to evaluate its effect on DM-related dietary knowledge and management compared with standard lifestyle advice (SLA) in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Methods: The I-ACE software, developed in consultation with clinical dieticians, incorporates evidence-based dietary and physical activity (PA) recommendations and educational materials. The features and behavioral change techniques include quantitative lifestyle (dietary intake and PA) assessment and simulation, individually tailored education and recommendations, motivational interviewing, and goal setting. For the unblinded pilot RCT, 50 overweight or obese Arab adults (aged 40-62 years) with poorly controlled T2DM were recruited from primary care clinics and randomly assigned to receive 4 in-person, dietician-delivered counseling sessions over 6 months using either (1) the I-ACE tool (experimental arm) or (2) the SLA methods (comparison arm). All outcome assessments were face-to-face. DM-related dietary knowledge (primary outcome) was measured at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months. Lifestyle and other parameters were measured before, during, and after the intervention. Multiple linear regression and repeated measures linear mixed models were used to compare the changes in study outcomes and explore time trends in between-group and within-group changes. Results: A total of 25 participants were enrolled in each arm, of whom 24 and 21 completed the final assessment of the primary outcome in the I-ACE and SLA arms, respectively. DM-related lifestyle knowledge increased more rapidly in the I-ACE arm than in the SLA arm (P value for study arm×time interaction=.02). Within the I-ACE arm, the mean (SE) differences in added sugar and dietary fiber intakes from baseline to 12 months were −2.6% (SE 1.0%) of total energy (P=.03) and 2.7 (SE 0.0) g/1000 kcal (P=.003), respectively. The odds of engaging in any leisure PA at 12 months tended to be higher in the I-ACE arm versus SLA arm, but did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio 2.8; 95% CI 0.7-11.6; P=.16). Both arms exhibited significant reductions in HbA1c (P value for change over time <.001). Conclusions: The use of the I-ACE software in a 6-month, 4-session dietician-delivered lifestyle counseling intervention improved the efficiency of lifestyle education, compared with SLA, among low-SES, ethnic minority patients with T2DM. This pilot trial provides justification for conducting a large-scale trial to evaluate its effectiveness and applicability in routine clinical care among ethnically diverse populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01858506; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01858506.