During the initial COVID-19 response, Germany's Federal Government implemented several nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that were instrumental in suppressing early exponential spread of SARS-CoV-2. NPI effect on the transmission of other respiratory viruses has not been examined at the national level thus far. Upper respiratory tract specimens from 3580 patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI), collected within the nationwide German ARI Sentinel, underwent RT-PCR diagnostics for multiple respiratory viruses. The observation period (weeks 1-38 of 2020) included the time before, during and after a far-reaching contact ban. Detection rates for different viruses were compared to 2017-2019 sentinel data (15350 samples; week 1-38, 11823 samples). The March 2020 contact ban, which was followed by a mask mandate, was associated with an unprecedented and sustained decline of multiple respiratory viruses. Among these, rhinovirus was the single agent that resurged to levels equalling those of previous years. Rhinovirus rebound was first observed in children, after schools and daycares had reopened. By contrast, other nonenveloped viruses (i.e. gastroenteritis viruses reported at the national level) suppressed after the shutdown did not rebound. Contact restrictions with a subsequent mask mandate in spring may substantially reduce respiratory virus circulation. This reduction appears sustained for most viruses, indicating that the activity of influenza and other respiratory viruses during the subsequent winter season might be low,whereas rhinovirus resurgence, potentially driven by transmission in educational institutions in a setting of waning population immunity, might signal predominance of rhinovirus-related ARIs. Robert Koch-Institute and German Ministry of Health.

Since the onset of the pandemic, many SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged, exhibiting substantial evolution in the virus’ spike protein¹, the main target of neutralizing antibodies². A plausible hypothesis proposes that the virus evolves to evade antibody-mediated neutralization (vaccine- or infection-induced) to maximize its ability to infect an immunologically experienced population^1,3. Because viral infection induces neutralizing antibodies, viral evolution may thus navigate on a dynamic immune landscape that is shaped by local infection history. Here we developed a comprehensive mechanistic model, incorporating deep mutational scanning data^4,5, antibody pharmacokinetics and regional genomic surveillance data, to predict the variant-specific relative number of susceptible individuals over time. We show that this quantity precisely matched historical variant dynamics, predicted future variant dynamics and explained global differences in variant dynamics. Our work strongly suggests that the ongoing pandemic continues to shape variant-specific population immunity, which determines a variant’s ability to transmit, thus defining variant fitness. The model can be applied to any region by utilizing local genomic surveillance data, allows contextualizing risk assessment of variants and provides information for vaccine design.

The World Health Organization framework for tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants has been updated to reflect the continued evolution of the virus; this framework could be adapted for other emerging respiratory diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential.

Background: Comprehensive pathogen genomic surveillance represents a powerful tool to complement and advance precision vaccinology. The emergence of the Alpha variant in December 2020 and the resulting efforts to track the spread of this and other severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern led to an expansion of genomic sequencing activities in Germany. Methods: At Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German National Institute of Public Health, we established the Integrated Molecular Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (IMS-SC2) network to perform SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance at the national scale, SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from laboratories distributed across Germany regularly undergo whole-genome sequencing at RKI. Results: We report analyses of 3623 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between December 2020 and December 2021, of which 3282 were randomly sampled. All variants of concern were identified in the sequenced sample set, at ratios equivalent to those in the 100-fold larger German GISAID sequence dataset from the same time period. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed variant assignments. Multiple mutations of concern emerged during the observation period. To model vaccine effectiveness in vitro, we employed authentic-virus neutralization assays, confirming that both the Beta and Zeta variants are capable of immune evasion. The IMS-SC2 sequence dataset facilitated an estimate of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence based on genetic evolution rates. Together with modeled vaccine efficacies, Delta-specific incidence estimation indicated that the German vaccination campaign contributed substantially to a deceleration of the nascent German Delta wave. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 molecular and genomic surveillance may inform public health policies including vaccination strategies and enable a proactive approach to controlling coronavirus disease 2019 spread as the virus evolves.

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are important causes of respiratory illness, especially in young children. However, surveillance for HPIV is rarely performed continuously, and national-level epidemiologic and genetic data are scarce. Within the German sentinel system, to monitor acute respiratory infections (ARI), 4463 respiratory specimens collected from outpatients < 5 years of age between October 2015 and September 2019 were retrospectively screened for HPIV 1–4 using real-time PCR. HPIV was identified in 459 (10%) samples. HPIV-3 was the most common HPIV-type, with 234 detections, followed by HPIV-1 (113), HPIV-4 (61), and HPIV-2 (49). HPIV-3 was more frequently associated with age < 2 years, and HPIV-4 was more frequently associated with pneumonia compared to other HPIV types. HPIV circulation displayed distinct seasonal patterns, which appeared to vary by type. Phylogenetic characterization clustered HPIV-1 in Clades 2 and 3. Reclassification was performed for HPIV-2, provisionally assigning two distinct HPIV-2 groups and six clades, with German HPIV-2s clustering in Clade 2.4. HPIV-3 clustered in C1, C3, C5, and, interestingly, in A. HPIV-4 clustered in Clades 2.1 and 2.2. The results of this study may serve to inform future approaches to diagnose and prevent HPIV infections, which contribute substantially to ARI in young children in Germany.

The first waves of the COVID‐19 pandemic were accompanied by an unprecedented decrease of influenza activity which persisted throughout the 2020/21 and 2021/22 winter seasons. Here, we report on the unusual influenza circulation patterns that followed in the year 2022, which was dominated throughout by A(H3N2) influenza viruses. After a delayed spring wave in 2022, A(H3N2) influenza viruses circulated at low levels throughout the summer and rose to a prominent, prematurely‐timed fall/winter wave peaking in December, with highest positivity rates observed in 10–12‐years old children. This winter wave ended abruptly with the national school holidays, when positivity rates decreased sharply not only in children but also in other age groups. Genetic analysis of influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) showed cocirculation of 10 A(H3N2) clades, of which three (2a.1b, 2a.3a.1, and 2b) became dominant in late 2022. All A(H3N2) viruses, including those assigned to the new clades, displayed high titers in HA inhibition tests with postinfection ferret antiserum raised against the A(H3N2) vaccine strains A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 and A/Darwin/9/2021. All viruses were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors and the polymerase inhibitor baloxavir marboxil, but carried the M2‐S31N substitution conferring adamantane resistance. Our findings shed light on disturbed seasonality of A(H3N2) circulation in the post‐COVID‐19 era.