The achievement of carbon neutrality requires a deep transformation of the Polish power sector. This paper analyses the impact of increased electricity generation from wind and solar technologies envisaged in the newest version of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 on the operation of dispatchable generators in 2030. The analysis was carried out using the Model of Economic Dispatch and Unit commitment for System Analysis (MEDUSA) model, which solves a mixed integer problem related to unit commitment and economic dispatch in electrical power production. At first, the model was validated based on the real operation data from 2018. Next, five scenarios were built to analyse the operation of the system in 2030. The overall result of the study is that the safest solution from the point of view of power system stability is to extend the decommissioning of coal units of 200 and 300 MW classes, to invest in renewable energy sources (RES) according to the energy policy, to build new gas power plants with the total capacity of ca. 4 GW, and to enforce Demand Side Management (DSM) programs for shifting the electrical load. The proposed framework for the optimization of power system planning helps to avoid wrong investment decisions that would have a negative impact on energy prices.

The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO₂ emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO₂ capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security.

Poland faces two great challenges in the field of environment and atmosphere protection: improving air quality, especially by reducing particulate matter (PM) emissions, and reducing relatively high greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this research was to investigate how the fuel and technological transformations in the power, road transport, and household and tertiary sectors aimed at reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Poland would affect air quality, human health, and the associated external costs. The study was conducted for 2050 while considering 2015 as the base year. Ambient PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm) concentration was used as a proxy air quality indicator. The analysis was based on decarbonization scenarios developed within the REFLEX Project (Analysis of the European energy system under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress). The three scenarios of the REFLEX Project focused on the reduction of CO₂ emissions up to 2050 from various sectors, mainly by the means of fuel and technological switches. This also led to the changes in the emission levels of pollutants that directly affect air quality, which were calculated with the use of fuel- and technology-specific emission factors. Next, for each emission scenario, ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and others pollutants were calculated with the use of the Polyphemus—an Eulerian-type air quality modelling system. Subsequently, the health impact of population exposed to air pollution and associated external costs were calculated using the πESA (Platform for Integrated Energy System Analysis) platform. The health impacts considered were the number of years of life lost, restricted activity days, and number of chronic bronchitis cases. The results showed that the largest reductions in both greenhouse gas and PM emissions—and consequently improvements of air quality resulting in a decrease of negative impacts on human health and a decrease of external costs—can be achieved by the transformation of heat production in the household and tertiary sector. The results also showed that the decrease in PM2.5 emissions envisaged in the analyzed scenarios in 2050 will lead to a reduction in the number of lost years of life by about 35 thousand and an avoidance of external costs by EUR 2.4 billion.

The use of fossil fuels, which still dominate global primary energy consumption, results not only in emissions of greenhouse gas but also in emissions of pollutants such as SO₂, NO_x, and PM. Damage caused by air pollution can be expressed in monetary terms in the form of external costs to society. The goal of this paper is to answer the following questions: How much will the energy sector’s emissions change as a result of decarbonization? What is the estimated level of external costs related to human health in future energy scenarios? How large are the estimated external costs compared to the planned investments in this sector? The study conducted for the period 2018–2050 used the impact pathway approach and covered the centralized power and heat generation sector in Poland. The reported values of the concentration–response functions that relate human exposure to air pollution with health impact were reviewed. The results show that external costs decrease from an estimated annual level in the range of EUR 782–1911 million in 2018 to EUR 36–876 million in 2050. The cumulative value of avoided external costs between 2018 and 2050 is significantly lower than the planned capital expenditures in the energy sector in Poland.

In this work, complex energy and greenhouse gas emissions analysis on a regional scale was presented. In the framework of analysis, the 3E (Energy–Economy–Environment) class optimisation model was developed. The objective function includes the costs of energy in the medium and long term. The model covers the following sectors: energy, industry, agriculture, households, tertiary, transport, and forestry. Data such as (i) potential of individual technologies, (ii) potential of renewable energy sources, (iii) technology and fuel costs, (iv) the legal environment, and (v) sectoral goals indicated in strategic documents at various levels (regional, national, European) were implemented into the model. The aim of the study was to indicate the optimal paths to achieve climate neutrality for a selected coal region of Europe (Małopolska Voivodeship, Poland). For this purpose, four scenarios were developed, with different goals and activities. The base year for the research is 2020, and the scenarios were developed until 2050. The research we carried out allowed us to obtain results on greenhouse gas emissions, fuel consumption, decommissioning old technologies and installing new ones, and costs system development by 2050.