The urban fringe is the transitional area from rural form to urban form, and it is also the urban space reserve land in the Territorial Spatial Plan. However, few researchers predict its overall evolution and guide the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan. This study attempts to explore the dynamic evolution law of urban fringe, analyze its driving factors, predict its future development, and put forward management suggestions for the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan. In this paper, the land use data of Wuhan in 2000, 2010 and 2020 are applied to delimit the urban fringe area of Wuhan by means of a sliding t-test. Fifteen driving factors are selected from three dimensions, natural factors, socio-economic factors and traffic accessibility, and brought into the Logistic model to explore the driving factors of its spatial evolution. The CA–Markov model is used to predict the fringe area of Wuhan in 2035. The results show that the transformation of rural hinterland into urban fringe is obviously affected by the distance from railway stations, highways, commercial centers and urban main roads. It is predicted that the outer boundary of Wuhan’s fringe area in 2035 will be basically the same as the planned urban development boundary. In order to realize the intention of land space planning, the development and construction of the northwest of the Huangpi District, the East Lake Scenic Area, and the west side of the Jiangxia District should be restricted. From the perspective of the evolution of the fringe area, this paper puts forward some management suggestions for the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan and makes a beneficial attempt in theory and method to understand the development characteristics of the fringe area and promote the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan.

Rationally relieving the population of urban centers in large cities, such as megacities and supercities, is one of the current goals of population development in China. The fringe area of a large city is a potential area to undertake the population of the central area. Studying the relationship between the population and the built environment in this area can help urban planners formulate targeted construction strategies to attract the population of the city center to move to the fringe areas. This paper takes the fringe areas of Wuhan in 2010 and 2020 as its specific research object and puts forward the “5D” index system of built environments that affects the spatial distribution of population based on population data and built environment data. The OLS model is used to screen the influencing factors. This paper analyzes the correlation between population and built environment using a multi-scale geographic weighted regression model as well. According to the results of the regression analysis combined with the development and construction of the fringe areas of remote urban areas in Wuhan over the past 20 years, some suggestions are put forward for the planning and construction of remote urban areas. The results show that the “5D” index system of the built environment covers the influencing factors of the spatial distribution of the population. MGWR reveals the correlation between the influencing factors and the spatial distribution of population in the marginal areas on the global scale and the local scale, respectively, which provides a clear direction for the development of planning and construction to improve the attractiveness of the non-central areas to the population.

Achieving effective integration of urban–rural relationships and promoting the flow of resources between urban and rural areas in megacities are a key priority in the development of China’s new urbanization efforts. As a transitional zone between urban and rural areas, the urban fringe is the frontier of urban–rural integration. The specific research object of this paper is the urban fringe areas of Wuhan City. This paper quantifies the neighborhood vitality of the fringe areas by the short-stay visitors in the fringe areas and selects the 5D elements of the built environment and social media data from multiple sources to construct the indicator system assessing the neighborhood vitality of the urban fringe areas. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of neighborhood vitality and its influencing factors in urban fringe areas and investigates the connection between neighborhood vitality and its influencing factors through the application of the multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. Based on the regression results, relevant planning recommendations are made on how to enhance the vitality of neighborhoods in urban fringe areas. The results show that the index system constructed by “5D” elements of built environment and social media data can well explain the spatial distribution of neighborhood vitality in urban fringe areas. Among the influencing factors, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient of network exposure is the largest, followed by road density and functional density. Thanks to the different bandwidths given by MGWR to the influencing factors, the global influencing factors are only two indicators—development intensity and functional mixing degree—while the other influencing factors are all local, and the influence degree of different regions is different, so it is necessary to analyze and put forward different planning suggestions accordingly.