Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana’s geographical distribution, including the driest month’s precipitation, the coldest month’s minimum temperature, the wettest month’s precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 10⁴ km² in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.

The effects of invasive species on the local community (e.g., structure and stability) are highly environmentally dependent. Invasions of amphibious species usually take place in both xeric and humid environments, yet they are relatively poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed the communities that were dominated by Alternanthera philoxeroides using ecological niche and interspecific association. A total of 66 species and 67 species were recorded in the xeric environment and humid environment, respectively. In both environments, species in family Gramineae, such as Echinochloa crusgalli and Cynodon dactylon, exhibited a higher level of importance values and greater ecological niche widths. The interspecific association and stability of the dominant species were weak and the dominant species were relatively independent of each other. In the xeric environment, A. philoxeroides was more compatible with E. crusgalli and C. dactylon in terms of ecological niche requirements and habitat suitability. In humid habitats, A. philoxeroides had a greater correlation with E. crusgalli, C. dactylon, and Persicaria lapathifolia, suggesting a higher possibility of concomitant occurrence. Overall, we suggested that during the revegetation after A. philoxeroides invasion, E. crusgalli and C. dactylon can be the alternative plants. Meanwhile, alternative control measures for A. philoxeroides invasion in agricultural fields should give more consideration to the use of plants with economic or ecological value.