Impacts of urban land use can include increased stormwater runoff temperature (T_w) leading to receiving water quality impairment. There is therefore a need to target and mitigate sources of thermal pollution in urban areas. However, complex relationships between urban development, stormwater runoff and stream water heating processes are poorly understood. A nested-scale experimental watershed study design was used to investigate stormwater runoff temperature impacts to receiving waters in a representative mixed-use urbanizing watershed of the central US. Daily maximum T_w exceeded 35.0 °C (threshold for potential mortality of warm-water biota) at an urban monitoring site for a total of five days during the study period (2011–2013). Sudden increases of more than 1.0 °C within a 15 min time interval of T_w following summer thunderstorms were significantly correlated (CI = 95%; p < 0.01) to cumulative percent urban land use (r² = 0.98; n = 29). Differences in mean T_w between monitoring sites were significantly correlated (CI = 95%; p = 0.02) to urban land use practices, stream distance and increasing discharge. The effects of the 2012 Midwest USA drought and land use on T_w were also observed with maximum T_w 4.0 °C higher at an urban monitoring site relative to a rural site for 10.5 h. The current work provides quantitative evidence of acute increases in T_w related to urban land use. Results better inform land managers wishing to create management strategies designed to preserve suitable thermal stream habitats in urbanizing watersheds.

Land managers are often inadequately informed to make management decisions in contemporary watersheds, in which sources of impairment are simultaneously shifting due to the combined influences of land use change, rapid ongoing human population growth, and changing environmental conditions. There is, thus, a great need for effective collaborative adaptive management (CAM; or derivatives) efforts utilizing an accepted methodological approach that provides data needed to properly identify and address past, present, and future sources of impairment. The experimental watershed study design holds great promise for meeting such needs and facilitating an effective collaborative and adaptive management process. To advance understanding of natural and anthropogenic influences on sources of impairment, and to demonstrate the approach in a contemporary watershed, a nested-scale experimental watershed study design was implemented in a representative, contemporary, mixed-use watershed located in Midwestern USA. Results identify challenges associated with CAM, and how the experimental watershed approach can help to objectively elucidate causal factors, target critical source areas, and provide the science-based information needed to make informed management decisions. Results show urban/suburban development and agriculture are primary drivers of alterations to watershed hydrology, streamflow regimes, transport of multiple water quality constituents, and stream physical habitat. However, several natural processes and watershed characteristics, such as surficial geology and stream system evolution, are likely compounding observed water quality impairment and aquatic habitat degradation. Given the varied and complicated set of factors contributing to such issues in the study watershed and other contemporary watersheds, watershed restoration is likely subject to physical limitations and should be conceptualized in the context of achievable goals/objectives. Overall, results demonstrate the immense, globally transferrable value of the experimental watershed approach and coupled CAM process to address contemporary water resource management challenges.

Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods). Multiple methods (n = 19) were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS) values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160) in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.