This study focuses on the effects of China’s carbon peaking policy, investigating how to balance nonfossil energy consumption and coal consumption to achieve China’s carbon peaking policy goal. The research applies the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of China’s energy planning policies using five scenarios to analyze the carbon emissions and economic effects of China’s energy planning policy from the perspectives of energy use, carbon emissions, the macroeconomy, and institutional income. The simulation results indicate that to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by 2030, the annual installed capacity of nonfossil energy must reach 112.29 gigawatts, and average annual coal consumption in the China 15th Five-Year Plan and 16th Five-Year Plan should be reduced by 20 million and 40 million tons, respectively, which will result in the proportion of nonfossil energy in primary energy consumption reaching about 25%. Limiting coal consumption will slow economic growth, whereas increasing the installed capacity of nonfossil energy will stimulate economic growth. The combined policies will have a significant impact on reducing carbon emissions and achieving the carbon peaking goal and will also offset the adverse effects of such policies on the macroeconomy.

China plans to achieve the carbon peaking target by 2030 and will maybe implement a series of environmental regulation policies, primarily including energy supply policy (such as coal consumption constraint and non-fossil energy development) and carbon tax policy. This paper simulates these policies using a computable general equilibrium model. The simulation results indicate that carbon tax policy has a finite impact on the economy, the emissions reduction effect is also limited and carbon tax policy alone is insufficient to achieve China's 2030 carbon peaking target. The coal consumption constraint policy has a good emissions reduction effect, but is not conducive to economic growth. The non-fossil energy development policy can increase energy supply and promote economic growth, but the emissions reduction effect is inadequate. In general, the simultaneous implementation of the coal consumption constraint and non-fossil energy development policies could not only achieve the carbon peaking goal, but also narrow the energy gap and reduce pressure on economic growth. However, it is notable that if carbon tax policy and energy supply policy are implemented simultaneously, the emissions reduction effect of carbon tax policy would be significantly reduced; therefore, it is likely that no carbon tax will be levied in China.