Objective The rising incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Asia supports the importance of environmental risk factors in disease aetiology. This prospective population-based case-control study in Asia-Pacific examined risk factors prior to patients developing IBD. Design 442 incident cases (186 Crohn's disease (CD); 256 UC; 374 Asians) diagnosed between 2011 and 2013 from eight countries in Asia and Australia and 940 controls (frequency-matched by sex, age and geographical location; 789 Asians) completed an environmental factor questionnaire at diagnosis. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted ORs (aOR) and 95% CIs. Results In multivariate model, being breast fed >12 months (aOR 0.10; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.30), antibiotic use (aOR 0.19; 0.07 to 0.52), having dogs (aOR 0.54; 0.35 to 0.83), daily tea consumption (aOR 0.62; 0.43 to 0.91) and daily physical activity (aOR 0.58; 0.35 to 0.96) decreased the odds for CD in Asians. In UC, being breast fed >12 months (aOR 0.16; 0.08 to 0.31), antibiotic use (aOR 0.48; 0.27 to 0.87), daily tea (aOR 0.63; 0.46 to 0.86) or coffee consumption (aOR 0.51; 0.36 to 0.72), presence of hot water tap (aOR 0.65; 0.46 to 0.91) and flush toilet in childhood (aOR 0.71; 0.51 to 0.98) were protective for UC development whereas ex-smoking (aOR 2.02; 1.22 to 3.35) increased the risk of UC. Conclusions This first population-based study of IBD risk factors in Asia-Pacific supports the importance of childhood immunological, hygiene and dietary factors in the development of IBD, suggesting that markers of altered intestinal microbiota may modulate risk of IBD later in life.

Objectives Serous cystic neoplasm (SCN) is a cystic neoplasm of the pancreas whose natural history is poorly known. The purpose of the study was to attempt to describe the natural history of SCN, including the specific mortality. Design Retrospective multinational study including SCN diagnosed between 1990 and 2014. Results 2622 patients were included. Seventy-four per cent were women, and median age at diagnosis was 58 years (16–99). Patients presented with non-specific abdominal pain (27%), pancreaticobiliary symptoms (9%), diabetes mellitus (5%), other symptoms (4%) and/or were asymptomatic (61%). Fifty-two per cent of patients were operated on during the first year after diagnosis (median size: 40 mm (2–200)), 9% had resection beyond 1 year of follow-up (3 years (1–20), size at diagnosis: 25 mm (4–140)) and 39% had no surgery (3.6 years (1–23), 25.5 mm (1–200)). Surgical indications were (not exclusive) uncertain diagnosis (60%), symptoms (23%), size increase (12%), large size (6%) and adjacent organ compression (5%). In patients followed beyond 1 year (n=1271), size increased in 37% (growth rate: 4 mm/year), was stable in 57% and decreased in 6%. Three serous cystadenocarcinomas were recorded. Postoperative mortality was 0.6% (n=10), and SCN's related mortality was 0.1% (n=1). Conclusions After a 3-year follow-up, clinical relevant symptoms occurred in a very small proportion of patients and size slowly increased in less than half. Surgical treatment should be proposed only for diagnosis remaining uncertain after complete workup, significant and related symptoms or exceptionally when exists concern with malignancy. This study supports an initial conservative management in the majority of patients with SCN. Trial registration number IRB 00006477.

Objective To develop and validate a clinical risk score predictive of risk for colorectal advanced neoplasia for Asia. Methods A prospective, cross-sectional and multicentre study was carried out in tertiary hospitals in 11 Asian cities. The subjects comprise 2752 asymptomatic patients undergoing screening colonoscopy. From a development set of 860 asymptomatic subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy, multiple logistic regression was applied to identify significant risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia defined as invasive carcinoma or advanced adenoma. The ORs for significant risk factors were utilised to develop a risk score ranging from 0 to 7 (Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score). Three tiers of risk were arbitrarily defined: 0–1 ‘average risk’ (AR); 2–3 ‘moderate risk’ (MR); and 4–7 ‘high risk’ (HR). Subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy between July 2006 and December 2007 were prospectively enrolled to form an independent validation group. Each subject had a personal APCS score calculated by summing the points attributed from the presence of risk factors in the individuals. The performance of the APCS score in predicting risk of advanced neoplasia was evaluated. Results There were 860 subjects in the derivation set and 1892 subjects in the validation set, with a baseline prevalence of advanced neoplasia of 4.5% and 3%, respectively. Applying the APCS stratification in the validation set, 559 subjects (29.5%) were in the AR tier, 966 subjects (51.1%) in the MR tier and 367 (19.4%) subjects in the HR tier. The prevalence of advanced neoplasia in the AR, MR and HR groups was 1.3, 3.2 and 5.2%, respectively. The subjects in the MR and HR tiers had 2.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 6.0) and 4.3-fold (95% CI 1.8 to 10.3) increased prevalence of advanced neoplasia, respectively, than those in the AR tier. Conclusions The APCS score based on age, gender, family history and smoking is useful in selecting asymptomatic Asian subjects for priority of colorectal screening.