Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship. We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied "earlyR" package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied "projections" package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively. The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) pandemic has swept all over the world, posing a great pressure on critical care resources due to large number of patients needing critical care. Statements from front-line experts in the field of intensive care are urgently needed. Sixteen front-line experts in China fighting against the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan were organized to develop an expert statement after 5 rounds of expert seminars and discussions to provide trustworthy recommendation on the management of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Each expert was assigned tasks within their field of expertise to provide draft statements and rationale. Parts of the expert statement are based on epidemiological and clinical evidence, without available scientific evidences. A comprehensive document with 46 statements are presented, including protection of medical personnel, etiological treatment, diagnosis and treatment of tissue and organ functional impairment, psychological interventions, immunity therapy, nutritional support, and transportation of critically ill COVID-19 patients. Among them, 5 recommendations were strong (Grade 1), 21 were weak (Grade 2), and 20 were experts’ opinions. A strong agreement from voting participants was obtained for all recommendations. There are still no targeted therapies for COVID-19 patients. Dynamic monitoring and supportive treatment for the restoration of tissue vascularization and organ function are particularly important.

Background: The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of abnormal urine analysis and kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 patients and to determine the association of acute kidney injury (AKI) with the severity and prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Methods: The electronic database of Embase and PubMed were searched for relevant studies. A meta-analysis of eligible studies that reported the prevalence of abnormal urine analysis and kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 was performed. The incidences of AKI were compared between severe versus non-severe patients and survivors versus non-survivors. Results: A total of 24 studies involving 4963 confirmed COVID-19 patients were included. The proportions of patients with elevation of sCr and BUN levels were 9.6% (95% CI 5.7–13.5%) and 13.7% (95% CI 5.5–21.9%), respectively. Of all patients, 57.2% (95% CI 40.6–73.8%) had proteinuria, 38.8% (95% CI 26.3–51.3%) had proteinuria +, and 10.6% (95% CI 7.9–13.3%) had proteinuria ++ or +++. The overall incidence of AKI in all COVID-19 patients was 4.5% (95% CI 3.0–6.0%), while the incidence of AKI was 1.3% (95% CI 0.2–2.4%), 2.8% (95% CI 1.4–4.2%), and 36.4% (95% CI 14.6–58.3%) in mild or moderate cases, severe cases, and critical cases, respectively. Meanwhile, the incidence of AKI was 52.9%(95% CI 34.5–71.4%), 0.7% (95% CI − 0.3–1.8%) in non-survivors and survivors, respectively. Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) was required in 5.6% (95% CI 2.6–8.6%) severe patients, 0.1% (95% CI − 0.1–0.2%) non-severe patients and 15.6% (95% CI 10.8–20.5%) non-survivors and 0.4% (95% CI − 0.2–1.0%) survivors, respectively. Conclusion: The incidence of abnormal urine analysis and kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 was high and AKI is closely associated with the severity and prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Therefore, it is important to increase awareness of kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND. Corticosteroids are widely used in patients with COVID 19, although their benefit-to-risk ratio remains controversial. METHODS. Patients with severe COVID-19–related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were included from December 29, 2019 to March 16, 2020 in 5 tertiary Chinese hospitals. Cox proportional hazards and competing risks analyses were conducted to analyze the impact of corticosteroids on mortality and SARS–CoV-2 RNA clearance, respectively. We performed a propensity score (PS) matching analysis to control confounding factors. RESULTS. Of 774 eligible patients, 409 patients received corticosteroids, with a median time from hospitalization to starting corticosteroids of 1.0 day (IQR 0.0–3.0 days) . As compared with usual care, treatment with corticosteroids was associated with increased rate of myocardial (15.6% vs. 10.4%, P = 0.041) and liver injury (18.3% vs. 9.9%, P = 0.001), of shock (22.0% vs. 12.6%, P < 0.001), of need for mechanical ventilation (38.1% vs. 19.5%, P < 0.001), and increased rate of 28-day all-cause mortality (44.3% vs. 31.0%, P < 0.001). After PS matching, corticosteroid therapy was associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01–2.13, P = 0.045). High dose (>200 mg) and early initiation (≤3 days from hospitalization) of corticosteroid therapy were associated with a higher 28-day mortality rate. Corticosteroid use was also associated with a delay in SARS–CoV-2 coronavirus RNA clearance in the competing risk analysis (subhazard ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.17–2.15, P = 0.003). CONCLUSION. Administration of corticosteroids in severe COVID-19–related ARDS is associated with increased 28-day mortality and delayed SARS–CoV-2 coronavirus RNA clearance after adjustment for time-varying confounders. FUNDING. None.

Nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir (Paxlovid) reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in high-risk, ambulatory adults with COVID-19. We aimed at studying the efficacy and safety of Paxlovid in hospitalized adult patients with SARS-Cov-2 (Omicron BA.2.2 variant) infection and severe comorbidities. We conducted an open-label, multicenter, randomized controlled trial in which hospitalized adult patients with severe comorbidities were eligible and assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either 300 mg of nirmatrelvir plus 100 mg of ritonavir every 12 h for 5 days with standard treatment or only standard treatment. All-cause mortality on day 28, the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance, and safety were evaluated. 264 patients (mean age, 70.35 years; 122 [46.21%] female) who met the criteria were enrolled at 5 sites in Shanghai from April 10 to May 19 in 2022. After randomization, a total of 132 patients were assigned to receive Paxlovid treatment plus standard treatment, and 132 patients were assigned to receive only standard treatment. The overall 28-day mortality was 4.92%, 8 patients died in the standard treatment group and 5 died in the Paxlovid plus standard treatment group. There was no significant difference in mortality from any cause at 28 days between the Paxlovid plus standard treatment group and the standard treatment group (absolute risk difference [ARD], 2.27; 95% CI -2.94 to 7.49, P = 0.39). There was no significant difference in the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance among the two groups (mean days, 10 in Paxlovid plus standard treatment group and 10.50 in the standard treatment group; ARD, -0.62; 95% CI -2.29 to 1.05, P = 0.42). The incidence of adverse events that occurred during the treatment period was similar in the two groups (any adverse event, 10.61% with Paxlovid plus standard treatment vs. 7.58% with the standard, P = 0.39; serious adverse events, 4.55% vs. 3.788%, P = 0.76). Paxlovid showed no significant reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality on day 28 and the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance in hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients with severe comorbidities. National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 82172152, 81873944).