Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention. British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Background: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the pathogenesis of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition). Methods: In this prospective study of 409 885 men and women in 9 European countries, diet was assessed with validated questionnaires and calibrated with 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During a mean of 12.6 years of follow-up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died of IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined with Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates. Results: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06–1.33) for a 100-g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09–1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89–0.98] per 100-g/d increment), cheese (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86–0.98] per 30-g/d increment), and eggs (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88–0.99] per 20-g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and nonsignificant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish, or milk. In analyses modeling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese, or eggs was associated with ≈20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese, and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.

Chronic, low-grade inflammation is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The inflammatory impact of diet can be reflected by concentrations of inflammatory markers in the bloodstream and the inflammatory potential of diet can be estimated by the dietary inflammatory index (DIITM), which has been associated with cardiovascular disease risk in some previous studies. We aimed to examine the association between the DII and the risk of first myocardial infarction (MI) in a population-based study with long follow-up. We conducted a prospective case–control study of 1389 verified cases of first MI and 5555 matched controls nested within the population-based cohorts of the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS), of which the largest is the ongoing Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) with nearly 100 000 participants during the study period. Median follow-up from recruitment to MI diagnosis was 6.4 years (6.2 for men and 7.2 for women). DII scores were derived from a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) administered in 1986–2006. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using quartile 1 (most anti-inflammatory diet) as the reference category. For validation, general linear models were used to estimate the association between the DII scores and two inflammatory markers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in a subset (n = 605) of the study population. Male participants with the most pro-inflammatory DII scores had an increased risk of MI [ORQ4vsQ1 = 1.57 (95% CI 1.21–2.02) P trend = 0.02], which was essentially unchanged after adjustment for potential confounders, including cardiovascular risk factors [ORQ4vsQ1 = 1.50 (95% CI 1.14–1.99), P trend = 0.10]. No association was found between DII and MI in women. An increase of one DII score unit was associated with 9% higher hsCRP (95% CI 0.03–0.14) and 6% higher IL-6 (95% CI 0.02–0.11) in 605 controls with biomarker data available. A pro-inflammatory diet was associated with an elevated risk of first myocardial infarction in men; whereas for women the relationship was null. Consideration of the inflammatory impact of diet could improve prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Background and Purpose: C-reactive protein (CRP) is a determinant of stroke, but there are no prospective studies on CRP and first ischemic stroke divided into etiologic subtypes. Our primary aim was to study CRP as a determinant of ischemic stroke, classified according to Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria, and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a prospective study. A secondary aim was to study the relationship between the 1444C>T polymorphism, plasma levels of CRP and stroke. Methods: The study was a prospective population-based case-referent study nested within the Northern Sweden Cohorts. We defined 308 cases of ischemic stroke and 61 ICH. Two controls for each case were defined from the same cohort. Results: The OR for the highest (>3 mg/l) versus lowest group (<1 mg/l) of CRP was 2.58 (95% CI 1.74–3.84) for ischemic stroke and 1.63 (95% CI 0.67–3.93) for ICH. In a multivariate model including traditional risk factors, CRP remained associated with ischemic stroke (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.29–3.29). Small-vessel disease was associated with CRP in the multivariate model (OR 3.88; 95% CI 1.10–13.7). The CRP 1444 (CC/CT vs. TT) polymorphism was associated with plasma levels of CRP but neither with ischemic stroke nor with ICH. Conclusions: This prospective population-based study shows that CRP is significantly associated with the risk of having a first ischemic stroke, especially for small-vessel disease. No significant associations were found between the CRP 1444C>T polymorphism and any stroke subtype.

Preventing sudden cardiac death (SCD) due to acute myocardial infarction (MI) in previously healthy patients is challenging. Proteomic analysis may lead to an understanding of biological mechanisms and provide predictive biomarkers. In this prospective, nested case-control study from northern Sweden, 87 candidate cardiovascular protein biomarkers were studied in 244 individuals who later died within 24 h from an incident MI and 244 referents without MI and individually matched for age, sex and date of health examination and alive at the date of event in the index person. Association analysis was conducted using conditional logistic regression. Bonferroni correction was applied to avoid false positive findings. Ten proteins were associated with future SCD due to acute MI in the non-adjusted analysis. The strongest association were found for growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41, 2.25) per standard deviation increase in protein, and urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor with an OR of 1.66 (95% CI 1.34, 2.06). In models adjusted for lipid levels, body mass index, education, smoking, hypertension and C-reactive protein, only association with GDF-15 remained (OR 1.47 (95% 1.11, 1.95)). Elevated levels of GDF-15 are associated with increased risk of SCD within 24 h of incident MI. Further research may enable the use of GDF-15 together with other clinical and biological markers to guide primary preventive interventions for individuals at high risk for SCD.