The impacts of land use/cover changes (LUCCs) on groundwater resources are a global issue. The Shiyang River Basin of China is a typical, ecologically fragile area. Focusing on the Wuwei sub-basin of the central plain, this study analyzed typical remote sensing image data for 17 specific dates since 1970. Before the Comprehensive Treatment Program in 2007, the area of natural oases decreased at a rate of 16.25 km²/year, while the area of farmland expanded at a rate of 13.85 km²/year. The farmland expansion preferentially occurred in low-vegetation-coverage oases, where the groundwater depth increased from 4 to 20 m. The consumption of groundwater increased from 7319.5 × 10⁴ m³/year to 12,943.2 × 10⁴ m³/year. During the period 2008–2018, the areas of both the natural oases and farmland decreased at rates of 2.57 km²/year and 8.99 km²/year, respectively. The groundwater level rose significantly in the south and west, as well as near the main river channel. Groundwater consumption has been restored to 7270.4 × 10⁴ m³/year. Only 0.12 km² of every 1.17 km² of the original natural oases were restored through the natural farmland–natural oases conversion process. Groundwater depth increased significantly with the continuous expansion of farmland. Since the farmland area was effectively controlled, the trend of groundwater-level decline was significantly improved. These findings provide scientific support for the ecological restoration and reconstruction of oases, as well as an efficient and balanced development of river basin water resources.

Adding a series of surface-water transfer projects still cannot solve the current water shortages in the arid area of northwestern China. Selecting a rational allocation plan for the water resources is the key to coordinating water use for the national economy and ecological environment. In this study, taking the Wuwei Basin as the study area, long-term data of source-sink terms from 2007 to 2018 were analyzed. Following the calibration and validation of the numerical simulation model of the groundwater system, the data was highly fitted. Based on this model, the groundwater system balance, water level variations, and suitable ecological water level area in 2050 under four water resource allocation plans were compared. Under plan 4, the groundwater resources change from an average decrease of 7656.4 × 10⁴ m³·yr⁻¹ from 2007 to 2018, to an increase of 4624.6 × 10⁴ m³·yr⁻¹ in 2050, which means the groundwater systems are almost in a positive balance state. Compared with 2018, the water level with small groundwater depth drops by 2.2–5.7 m, while that with large groundwater depths steadily rises by 2.7–8.6 m. In addition, it can maintain the 9 km² natural oasis wetland area and the 116 km² well-growing natural vegetation area, which can effectively promote the benign evolution and efficient, balanced sustainable development of the regional water resources, economy, and ecological environment.

Arid inland basins represent critical hotspots of intensified conflict among water resources, ecological integrity, and economic development on a global scale. The coevolution of groundwater systems and land use patterns plays a pivotal role in shaping regional sustainability trajectories. This study synthesizes multi-source data spanning 2000 to 2020 from the Wuwei Basin, located within the Shiyang River watershed in China, to elucidate the synergistic dynamics between hydrological and land use transformations. Key findings reveal: (1) Around 2010, a significant structural shift in land use occurred, transitioning from production-oriented expansion to ecologically driven priorities. This shift was characterized by a reduction in cultivated land, increased utilization of artificial surfaces, and accelerated ecological restoration efforts. These changes were jointly influenced by enhanced water governance frameworks and spatial planning policies. (2) Groundwater levels exhibit marked spatial variability. While stability is maintained in piedmont and discharge zones, persistent overdraft has led to pronounced declines in transitional and distal recharge areas. This heterogeneity is primarily governed by the interplay of hydrogeological factors—such as recharge capacity and aquifer permeability—and anthropogenic pressures, including the extent of cultivated land and intensity of groundwater extraction. Notably, these patterns cannot be explained solely by the proportion of cultivated land or total extraction volumes. (3) A positive feedback mechanism—termed the “gain-loss regime shift”—has been identified in the discharge zone, where simultaneous increases in groundwater extraction and water-level recovery are observed. However, human activities have disrupted the natural coupling between precipitation and groundwater recharge, resulting in a significant attenuation of recharge rates (exceeding 80%). These findings offer a robust scientific basis for implementing spatially differentiated water resource management strategies and optimizing land use in arid basin environments. The implications extend beyond regional contexts, contributing to broader efforts in harmonizing human–environment interactions globally.