Clonal expansions driven by somatic mutations become pervasive across human tissues with age, including in the haematopoietic system, where the phenomenon is termed clonal haematopoiesis^1–4. The understanding of how and when clonal haematopoiesis develops, the factors that govern its behaviour, how it interacts with ageing and how these variables relate to malignant progression remains limited^5,6. Here we track 697 clonal haematopoiesis clones from 385 individuals 55 years of age or older over a median of 13 years. We find that 92.4% of clones expanded at a stable exponential rate over the study period, with different mutations driving substantially different growth rates, ranging from 5% (DNMT3A and TP53) to more than 50% per year (SRSF2^P95H). Growth rates of clones with the same mutation differed by approximately ±5% per year, proportionately affecting slow drivers more substantially. By combining our time-series data with phylogenetic analysis of 1,731 whole-genome sequences of haematopoietic colonies from 7 individuals from an older age group, we reveal distinct patterns of lifelong clonal behaviour. DNMT3A-mutant clones preferentially expanded early in life and displayed slower growth in old age, in the context of an increasingly competitive oligoclonal landscape. By contrast, splicing gene mutations drove expansion only later in life, whereas TET2-mutant clones emerged across all ages. Finally, we show that mutations driving faster clonal growth carry a higher risk of malignant progression. Our findings characterize the lifelong natural history of clonal haematopoiesis and give fundamental insights into the interactions between somatic mutation, ageing and clonal selection.

Genomewide association studies of autoimmune diseases have mapped hundreds of susceptibility regions in the genome. However, only for a few association signals has the causal gene been identified, and for even fewer have the causal variant and underlying mechanism been defined. Coincident associations of DNA variants affecting both the risk of autoimmune disease and quantitative immune variables provide an informative route to explore disease mechanisms and drug-targetable pathways. Using case–control samples from Sardinia, Italy, we performed a genomewide association study in multiple sclerosis followed by TNFSF13B locus–specific association testing in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Extensive phenotyping of quantitative immune variables, sequence-based fine mapping, cross-population and cross-phenotype analyses, and gene-expression studies were used to identify the causal variant and elucidate its mechanism of action. Signatures of positive selection were also investigated. A variant in TNFSF13B, encoding the cytokine and drug target B-cell activating factor (BAFF), was associated with multiple sclerosis as well as SLE. The disease-risk allele was also associated with up-regulated humoral immunity through increased levels of soluble BAFF, B lymphocytes, and immunoglobulins. The causal variant was identified: an insertion–deletion variant, GCTGT→A (in which A is the risk allele), yielded a shorter transcript that escaped microRNA inhibition and increased production of soluble BAFF, which in turn up-regulated humoral immunity. Population genetic signatures indicated that this autoimmunity variant has been evolutionarily advantageous, most likely by augmenting resistance to malaria. A TNFSF13B variant was associated with multiple sclerosis and SLE, and its effects were clarified at the population, cellular, and molecular levels. (Funded by the Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis and others.)