Accurate monthly streamflow prediction is crucial for effective flood mitigation and water resource management. The present study proposes an innovative similarity-derived model (SDM), developed based on the observation that similar monthly streamflow patterns recur across different years under comparable hydrological and climate conditions. The model is applied to the Lancang River Basin in China. The model performance is compared with the commonly used support vector machine (SVM) and Mean methods. Evaluation measures such as RMSE, MAPE, and NSE confirm that SDM6 with a reference period of six months achieves the best performance, improving the Mean model by 79.9 m³/s in RMSE, 6.07% in MAPE, and 8.62% in NSE, and the SVM by 53.65 m³/s, 0.24%, and 5.53%, respectively.

Operators often have a dilemma in deciding what water levels the over-year hydropower reservoirs should drawdown at the end of dry seasons, either too high to achieve a large firm hydropower output during the dry seasons in the current year and minor spillage in coming flood seasons, or too low to refill to the full storage capacity at the end of the flood seasons and a greater firm hydropower output in the coming year. This work formulates a third-monthly (in an interval of about ten days) hydropower scheduling model, which is linearized by linearly concaving the nonlinear functions and presents a rolling strategy to simulate many years of reservoir operations to investigate how the water level at the end of dry seasons will impact the performances, including the energy production, firm hydropower output, full-refilling rate, etc. Applied to 11 cascaded hydropower reservoirs in a river in southwest China, the simulation reveals that targeting a drawdown water level between 1185–1214 m for one of its major over-year reservoirs and 774–791 m for another is the most favorable option for generating more hydropower and yielding larger firm hydropower output.