Future conditions of coastal Louisiana are highly uncertain due to the dynamic nature of deltas, climate change, tropical storms, and human reliance on natural resources and ecosystem services. Managing a system in which natural and socio-economic components are highly integrated is inherently difficult. Sediment diversions are a unique restoration tool that would reconnect the Mississippi River to its deltaic plain to build and sustain land. Diversions are innately adaptable as operations can be modified over time. An expert working group was formed to explore how various operational strategies may affect the complex interactions of coastal Louisiana’s ecological and social landscape and provide preliminary recommendations for further consideration and research. For example, initial operations should be gradually increased over 5 to 10 years to facilitate the development of a distributary channel network, reduce flood risk potential to communities, limit erosion of adjacent marshes and reduce stress to vegetation and fish and wildlife species. Diversions should operate over winter peaks to capture the highest sediment concentration, reduce vegetation loss while dormant, and reduce detrimental effects to fish and wildlife. Operations during the spring/summer should occur over shorter periods to capture the highest sediment load during the rising limb of the flood peak and minimize impacts to the ecosystem. Operational strategies should strive to build and sustain as much of the coastal landscape as possible while also balancing the ecosystem and community needs.

Deltas and estuaries built by the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River (MAR) in the United States and the Usumacinta/Grijalva River (UGR) in Mexico account for 80 percent of all Gulf of Mexico (GoM) coastal wetlands outside of Cuba. They rank first and second in freshwater discharge to the GoM and owe their natural resilience to a modular geomorphology that spreads risk across the coast-scape while providing ecosystem connectivity through shelf plumes that connect estuaries. Both river systems generate large plumes that strongly influence fisheries production over large areas of the northern and southern GoM continental shelves. Recent watershed process simulations (DLEM, MAPSS) driven by CMIP3 General Circulation Model (GCM) output indicate that the two systems face diverging futures, with the mean annual discharge of the MAR predicted to increase 11 to 63 percent, and that of the UGR to decline as much as 80 percent in the 21st century. MAR delta subsidence rates are the highest in North America, making it particularly susceptible to channel training interventions that have curtailed a natural propensity to shift course and deliver sediment to new areas, or to refurbish zones of high wetland loss. Undoing these restrictions in a controlled way has become the focus of a multi-billion-dollar effort to restore the MAR delta internally, while releasing fine-grained sediments trapped behind dams in the Great Plains has become an external goal. The UGR is, from an internal vulnerability standpoint, most threatened by land use changes that interfere with a deltaic architecture that is naturally resilient to sea level rise. This recognition has led to successful efforts in Mexico to protect still intact coastal systems against further anthropogenic impacts, as evidenced by establishment of the Centla Wetland Biosphere Preserve and the Terminos Lagoon Protected Area. The greatest threat to the UGR system, however, is an external one that will be imposed by the severe drying predicted for the entire Mesoamerican “climate change hot-spot”, a change that will necessitate much greater international involvement to protect threatened communities and lifeways as well as rare habitats and species.

The existence of the Mississippi River (MR) and Tributaries’ levees in coastal Louisiana could block storm surge and cause surge setup in adjacent basins. In order to reduce storm surge amplification caused by these barriers, one possible solution is to build “floodways” through the mainstem MR levees to allow surge during tropical events to cross. The primary purpose of this study is to examine if these floodways/openings can help reduce storm surge in adjacent basins. Using Hurricane Isaac (2012) as an example, a pre-validated Delft3D-based hydrodynamic model was applied to study the effect of levee openings on storm surge. Model results and flux analysis show that these levee openings were not effective in reducing storm surge in Barataria Basin and Breton Sound due to the complex interaction between the cross flow from the surge and the MR flow. During Isaac, the MR water could be diverted to Barataria and/or Breton, which resulted in an increase in storm surge, essentially defeating the primary objective of the levee openings. Overall, the impact of levee openings at the selected locations on storm surge reduction in adjacent basins of coastal Louisiana was minor and very limited.