Analyzing the drug abuse epidemic: There is a developing drug epidemic in the United States. Jalal et al. analyzed nearly 600,000 unintentional drug overdoses over a 38-year period. Although the overall mortality rate closely followed an exponential growth curve, the pattern itself is a composite of several underlying subepidemics of different drugs. Geographic hotspots have developed over time, as well as drug-specific demographic differences. Science , this issue p. eaau1184

Objective To systematically compare midlife mortality patterns in the United States across racial and ethnic groups during 1999-2016, documenting causes of death and their relative contribution to excess deaths. Design Trend analysis of US vital statistics among racial and ethnic groups. Setting United States, 1999-2016. Population US adults aged 25-64 years (midlife). Main outcome measures Absolute changes in mortality measured as average year-to-year change during 1999-2016 and 2012-16; excess deaths attributable to increasing mortality; and relative changes in mortality measured as relative difference between mortality in 1999 versus 2016 and the nadir year versus 2016, and the slope of modeled mortality trends for 1999-2016 and for intervals between joinpoints. Results During 1999-2016, all cause mortality in midlife increased not only among non-Hispanic (NH) whites but also among NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives. Although all cause mortality initially decreased among NH blacks, Hispanics, and NH Asians and Pacific Islanders, this trend ended in 2009-11. Drug overdoses were the leading cause of increased mortality in midlife in each population, but mortality also increased for alcohol related conditions, suicides, and organ diseases involving multiple body systems. Although midlife mortality among NH whites increased across a multitude of conditions, a similar trend affected non-white populations. Absolute (year-to-year) increases in midlife mortality among non-white populationsoften matched or exceeded those of NH whites, especially in 2012-16, when the rate of increase intensified for many causes of death. During 1999-2016, NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives experienced large increases in midlife mortality from 12 causes, not only drug overdoses (411.4%) but also hypertensive diseases (269.3%), liver cancer (115.1%), viral hepatitis (112.1%), and diseases of the nervous system (99.8%). NH blacks experienced increased midlife mortality from 17 causes, including drug overdoses (149.6%), homicides (21.4%), hypertensive diseases (15.5%), obesity (120.7%), and liver cancer (49.5%). NH blacks also experienced retrogression: after a period of stable or declining midlife mortality early in 1999-2016, death rates increased for alcohol related liver disease, chronic lower respiratory tract disease, suicides, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer. Among Hispanics, midlife mortality increased across 12 causes, including drug overdoses (80.0%), hypertensive diseases (40.6%), liver cancer (41.8%), suicides (21.9%), obesity (106.6%), and metabolic disorders (60.0%). Retrogression also occurred in this population; after a period of declining mortality, death rates increased for alcohol related liver disease, mental and behavioral disorders involving psychoactive substances, and homicides. NH Asians and Pacific Islanders were least affected by this trend but also experienced increases in midlife mortality from drug overdoses (300.6%), alcohol related liver disease (62.9%), hypertensive diseases (28.3%), and brain cancer (56.6%). The suicide rate in this group increased by 29.7% after 2001. The relative increase in US midlife mortality differed by sex and geography. For example, the relative increase in fatal drug overdoses was greater among women than among men. Although the relative increase in midlife mortality was generally greater in non-metropolitan (ie, rural) areas, the relative increase in drug overdoses among NH whites and Hispanics was greatest in suburban fringe areas of large cities, and among NH blacks was greatest in small cities. Conclusions Mortality in midlife in the US has increased across racial-ethnic populations for a variety of conditions, especially in recent years, offsetting years of progress in lowering mortality rates. This reversal carries added consequences for racial groups with high baseline mortality rates, such as for NH blacks and NH American Indians and Alaskan Natives. That death rates are increasing throughout the US population for dozens of conditions signals a systemic cause and warrants prompt action by policy makers to tackle the factors responsible for declining health in the US.

A complete and accurate count of the number of opioid-related overdose deaths is essential to properly allocate resources. We determined the rate of unintentional overdose deaths (non–opioid-related, opioid-related, or unspecified) in the United States and by state from 1999 to 2015 and the possible effects of underreporting on national estimates of opioid abuse. We abstracted unintentional drug overdose deaths (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes X40-X44) with contributory drug-specific T codes (T36.0-T50.9) from the Mortality Multiple Cause Micro-Data Files. We assumed that the proportion of unspecified overdose deaths that might be attributed to opioids would be the same as the proportion of opioid-related overdose deaths among all overdose deaths and calculated the number of deaths that could be reallocated as opioid-related for each state and year. We then added these reallocated deaths to the reported deaths to determine their potential effect on total opioid-related deaths. From 1999 to 2015, a total of 438 607 people died from unintentional drug overdoses. Opioid-related overdose deaths rose 401% (from 5868 to 29 383), non–opioid-related overdose deaths rose 150% (from 3005 to 7505), and unspecified overdose deaths rose 220% (from 2255 to 29 383). In 5 states (Alabama, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania), more than 35% of unintentional overdose deaths were coded as unspecified. Our reallocation resulted in classifying more than 70 000 unspecified overdose deaths as potential additional opioid-related overdose deaths. States may be greatly underestimating the effect of opioid-related overdose deaths because of incomplete cause-of-death reporting, indicating that the current opioid overdose epidemic may be worse than it appears.

Infants and children are particularly vulnerable to in utero and early-life exposures. Thus, a mother’s exposures before and during pregnancy could have important consequences for her child’s health, including cancer development. We examined whether birth certificate–derived maternal anthropometric characteristics were associated with increased risk of subsequent childhood cancer development, accounting for established maternal and infant risk factors. Pennsylvania birth and cancer registry files were linked by the state Department of Health, yielding a virtual cohort of births and childhood cancers from 2003 through 2016. The analysis included 1,827,875 infants (13,785,309 person-years at risk), with 2,352 children diagnosed with any cancer and 747 with leukemia before age 14 years. Children born to mothers with a body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)²) of ≥40 had a 57% (95% confidence interval: 12, 120) higher leukemia risk. Newborn size of ≥30% higher than expected was associated with 2.2-fold and 1.8-fold hazard ratios for total childhood cancer and leukemia, respectively, relative to those with expected size. Being <30% below expected size also increased the overall cancer risk (P for curvilinearity < 0.0001). Newborn size did not mediate the association between maternal obesity and childhood cancer. The results suggest a significant role of early-life exposure to maternal obesity- and fetal growth–related factors in childhood cancer development.