The estuarine areas provide necessary spawning habitat, nursing habitat, and migratory for a variety of fishes and the environmental conditions are of significant heterogeneity.Coilia mystusis the key commercial fish that spawns in the Yangtze Estuary and the yield has declined sharply in the past 30 years. In order to understand the spawning habitat selection mechanism ofC. mystus, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was applied to explore the non-stationary effect of environmental variables [e.g., the sea surface temperature (SST) and the sea surface salinity (SSS)] and geographical variables [e.g., the distance to the coast (DTC) and the depth (DEP) of water] on the egg density distribution ofC. mystus. The data were derived from the spring and summer ichthyoplankton surveys carried out from 2019 to 2020 in the Yangtze Estuary, China. The GWR model results showed that the key variables in different seasons had spatial non-stationary effects on the distribution of spawning habitat ofC. mystus, which were mainly caused by regional rise in temperature and saltwater intrusion of the South Branch. In the spring, the SSS, the DTC, and the DEP were the main impact factors and saltwater intrusion in the South Branch might lead to the trend that the spawning habitat moved further upstream to the Changxing Island. The SST was most important in the summer and the relatively lower SST was more crucial in the spawning habitat selection than the DTC and the DEP. The GWR model performed well in the study ofC. mystuspotential spawning habitat in the Yangtze Estuary. We recommend that more attention should be paid in regional variation of environmental factors to explore fish potential spawning habitat in the estuarine areas.

A fishery-independent survey can provide detailed information for fishery assessment and management. However, the sampling design for the survey on ichthyoplankton in the estuary area is still poorly understood. In this study, we developed six stratified schemes with various sample sizes, attempting to find cost-efficient sampling designs for monitoring Coilia mystus ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary. The generalized additive model (GAM) with the Tweedie distribution was used to quantify the “true” distribution of C. mystus eggs and larvae, based on the data from the fishery-independent survey in 2019–2020. The performances of different sampling designs were evaluated by relative estimation error (REE), relative bias (RB), and coefficient of variation (CV). The results indicated that appropriate stratifications with intra-stratum homogeneity and inter-stratum heterogeneity could improve precision. The stratified schemes should be divided not only between the North Branch and South Branch but between river and sea. No less than two stratifications in the South Branch could also get better performance. The sample sizes of 45–55 were considered as the cost-efficient range. Compared to other monitoring programs, monitoring ichthyoplankton in the estuary area required a more complex stratification and a higher resolution sampling. The design ideology and optimization methodology in our study would provide references to sampling designs for ichthyoplankton in the estuary area.

Estuaries provide nursery habitats for a variety of fish species of different ecological guilds and have complicated environmental conditions. In this study, we applied ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to four abundant and different ecological guild larval fish species (Hemiculter bleekeri (freshwater guild), Pseudolaubuca sinensis (freshwater guild), Coilia mystus (brackish water guild), and Engraulis japonicus (marine guild)) to explore their suitable habitats and the fish–habitat relationships in the Yangtze Estuary. The results showed that random forest (RF) demonstrated the best performance in all single algorithms and the surface range envelop (SRE) model was scarcely accurate. The ensemble SDMs demonstrated a superior predictive ability compared with any single algorithm, with the true skill statistic (TSS) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores being above 0.899 and 0.641, respectively. Binary presence–absence maps showed the different spatial distribution patterns of the four species. We primarily found the freshwater species (P. sinensis and H. bleekeri) present in the South Branch (west of 122° E), whereas we found the marine species (E. japonicus) anywhere except inside the South Branch (west of 121.8° E). The area for P. sinensis (1615.93 km²) was relatively larger than that for H. bleekeri (1136.87 km²). We predicted that the brackish water species (C. mystus) would most likely be present inside the North Branch (west of 122° E), Eastern Chongming, and outside the South Branch (east of 121.8° E). Salinity, as a key environmental variable, contributed to the spatial variability. A low salinity (sea surface salinity (SSS) < 3) was beneficial for P. sinensis and H. bleekeri but was not suitable for E. japonicus. The SSS suitable range for C. mystus was 5–10 and 12–20. Multiple ecological guild species dwelled in the confluence of salt and fresh water. Our results will play an important role in the design of specific conservation strategies for fishery resources in this area.

Estuaries, as important fish nursery habitats, usually include a variety of larval fishes of different ecological guilds and exhibit complicated changing environmental conditions. We carried out a survey to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of different ecological guild larval fishes and their relationships with environmental factors in the springs and summers from 2018 to 2020 in the Yangtze Estuary (China). The aims of the study were to provide detailed information on the characteristics of the larval fish assemblage and to explore the spatiotemporal variation in different ecological guild species and the effects of environmental variables on assemblage structure. More than 140,000 fish larvae from 26 families and 99 species were gathered during the six cruises, with the spring being the most prolific. The assemblage was dominated by a few species and was divided into three ecological guilds. Engraulidae was the most abundant family, followed by Cyprinidae and Gobiidae. Hemiculter bleekeri (freshwater), Pseudolaubuca sinensis (freshwater), Coilia mystus (brackish water), and Engraulis japonicas (marine) were the predominant species. Seasonal variations in larval fish assemblage structure were closely influenced by temperature, and the fluctuation in salinity mainly determined the spatial distribution of the larval fish community. Freshwater flows also played an important role in shaping the larval fish assemblage structure and dynamics. The conclusions improve the understanding of the ecological dynamics of larval fish assemblages in environmentally heterogeneous areas and may be applicable to other estuary ecosystems.