The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is situated in the hinterland of northwest China, which is an extremely arid and fragile ecological zone. In recent years, the region’s ecological civilization construction has been facing huge challenges that are exacerbated by climate change and human activities. In order to verify the current ecological status of TRB, this paper explores the spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem service value (ESV) and the impact mechanism based on LUCC data from 2000 to 2020, using the adjusted unit area value equivalent method, the elasticity index method and the geo-probe analysis method. The results show that: (1) the ESV of the TRB has fluctuated since 2000, increasing by CNY 14.02 billion, especially in the Hotan River region. Among the individual ecosystem services, the increase in regulatory services is the largest, rising to CNY 8.842 billion. The growth of ESV mostly occurred in the mountains and oases. (2) The rise in ESV is mainly due to the conversion of barren land to water and grassland; ESV loss is mainly affected by the conversion of water to cropland and barren land and grassland to cropland and barren land. (3) Human activity impact or intensity (HAI) is the key driving factor for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV, followed by elevation (DEM). In the interaction analysis, HAI∩DEM interaction is the primary reason for ESV’s spatial differentiation. The study’s findings show that the combined effects of human activities, DEM, and hydrothermal conditions underlie the spatial stratified heterogeneity of ESV in the TRB. This conclusion provides a scientific basis for future ecological civilization construction planning.

To obtain timely, accurate, and reliable information on wheat yield dynamics. The UAV DJI Wizard 4-multispectral version was utilized to acquire multispectral images of winter wheat during the tasseling, grouting, and ripening periods, and to manually acquire ground yield data. Sixteen vegetation indices were screened by correlation analysis, and eight textural features were extracted from five single bands in three fertility periods. Subsequently, models for estimating winter wheat yield were developed utilizing multiple linear regression (MLR), partial least squares (PLS), BP neural network (BPNN), and random forest regression (RF), respectively. (1) The results indicated a consistent correlation between the two variable types and yield across various fertility periods. This correlation consistently followed a sequence: heading period > filling period > mature stage. (2) The model’s accuracy improves significantly when incorporating both texture features and vegetation indices for estimation, surpassing the accuracy achieved through the estimation of a single variable type. (3) Among the various models considered, the partial least squares (PLS) model integrating texture features and vegetation indices exhibited the highest accuracy in estimating winter wheat yield. It achieved a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.852, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 74.469 kg·hm⁻², and a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41%. This study validates the significance of utilizing image texture features along with vegetation indices to enhance the accuracy of models estimating winter wheat yield. It demonstrates that UAV multispectral images can effectively establish a yield estimation model. Combining vegetation indices and texture features results in a more accurate and predictive model compared to using a single index.

Urbanization not only affects a region’s economic development but also impacts its land use structure. As the largest inland river basin in China, the Tarim River Basin has experienced rapid economic growth and urbanization in recent years, posing a serious threat to its soil and water resources and ecological sustainability. In this study, four remote sensing data products from 1990–2020 are selected to explore the distribution of land use types and their land structure changes in the basin in the context of rapid urbanization. The results show that the built-up land area increased by 2855.74 km² during 1990–2020, mainly from the transfer of grassland and barren land. Furthermore, the migration of the center of gravity of built-up land moved from the desert to oasis areas, indicating that the urbanization process intensified during the study period. The overall trend is toward a continuous increase in arable and built-up land area and a continuous decrease in barren land. Future trends in the Tarim River Basin predict that arable land will decrease and that built-up land will continue to increase. However, the increase in built-up land will level off, mainly due to the transfer of arable land and grassland, which accounts for 37.94% and 20.40%, respectively. The migration characteristics of the center of gravity of each land type in the basin varied widely during 1990–2020, but the land structure will tend toward a gradual balance in the future. Therefore, in the context of increasing urbanization, focusing on the sustainable development of regional soil and water resources and ecology is crucial for the coordinated development of regional resources and economy.

Xinjiang is located in arid northwest China, which is a key area for promoting the high-quality development of the regional ecological environment. In recent years, against a background of increasing human activities and rapid natural changes, Xinjiang has faced enormous ecological challenges. This paper utilizes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 to verify the region’s current state of the ecosystem. Additionally, it uses the value equivalent factor per unit area, ecosystem service value (ESV) loss and gain matrix, and double-factor spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the spatial and temporal variabilities of ESV in Xinjiang and its attribution to spatial correlation. The results show that (1) the ESV in Xinjiang exhibits an overall increasing trend during 2000–2020, with a total increase of about CNY 18.202 billion. Regulation-service ESV takes the main position in the single-service function, accounting for about 67.18% of the total ESV. In northern Xinjiang, the ESV demonstrates a decreasing trend, dropping by about CNY 16.885 billion, while in southern Xinjiang, the ESV shows an increasing trend, rising by CNY 35.086 billion. (2) For the study period, the main loss of ESV in Xinjiang is the conversion of ecological land with a high ESV into cropland or barren land with a low ESV. The conversion of bare land to grassland led to the largest increase in ESV (about CNY 209.308 billion), whereas the conversion of grassland to barren land led to the largest loss (about CNY 183.046 billion). (3) There are positive correlations among ESV, net primary productivity (NPP), and human activity intensity (HAI). However, all of the relationships weaken year by year. The spatial agglomeration of ESV ∩ NPP is significantly greater than that of ESV ∩ HAI, so NPP is the dominant factor in the spatial correlation of ESV in Xinjiang. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for promoting high-quality regional ecological development in China’s arid northwest.

Northern Xinjiang is the center of gravity for Xinjiang's economic development, and "production-living-ecological space" (PLES) is of great significance to the optimization of regional territorial spatial structure. Taking northern Xinjiang as our study area, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the ecological and environmental effects of PLES evolution from 2000 to 2020. To do so, we apply the grid cell method, the ecological and environmental quality index, the global autocorrelation model, and the kernel density estimation. Additionally, we use a geographic detector model to reveal the drivers of spatial variation in ecological and environmental quality. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, PLES in the study area is mainly ecological accommodation land. However, there is an obvious trend showing a decrease in ecological accommodation land area and an increase in other land types. Production land and living land increased the most, among which agricultural land and industrial land were mainly converted from grassland ecological land and water ecological land, respectively. The quality of the ecological environment is basically stable during the study period, with an overall slight declining trend, which indicates the quality of ecological environment has decreased slightly. The spatial distribution of the eco-environmental effect shows a significant spatial autocorrelation pattern of "dense in the west and sparse in the east", along with a spatial clustering phenomenon. The main factor of spatial variation in ecological quality is elevation, and the interactions between the factors are mainly non-linearly and double-factor enhanced. The spatial differentiation of ecological environmental quality in the study area is the result of multiple factors. Exploring the ecological and environmental effects of PLES evolution and its driving factors can provide a scientific basis for the implementation of territorial spatial planning and ecological environmental protection in northern Xinjiang.

Habitat quality is an important basis for human well-being and the achievement of sustainable development. Based on land-use data for the Bosten Lake Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022, the PLUS and InVEST models are applied in this study to predict and analyze land-use changes and explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the region’s habitat quality. Additionally, we use a geographic detector model to reveal the drivers of spatial variation in habitat quality. The results show that: (1) Land use in Bosten Lake Basin is dominated by grassland and bare land, with an area share of 93.21%. Habitat quality shows a trend of degradation followed by improvement, with a spatial pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. (2) Habitat quality in 2030 increased from 2022 in all cases, with a mean of 0.354 for the natural development scenario, a maximum of 0.355 for the ecological development scenario, and a minimum of 0.353 for the economic development scenario. (3) The main drivers affecting habitat quality in the Bosten Lake watershed are DEM, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and GDP per capita. X1∩X4 (0.50) and X4∩X10 (0.51) are the interaction factors with the largest dominant effect in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively.