Objective: To study the best possible luteinizing hormone (LH) threshold to predict ovulation within the 24, 48, and 72 h. Design: Observational study. Setting: Multicenter collaborative study. Patients: A total of 107 women. Interventions: Women collected daily first morning urine for hormonal assessment and underwent serial ovarian ultrasound. This is a secondary analysis of 283 cycles. Main outcome measures: The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were estimated for varying ranges of LH thresholds. Receiver operating characteristic curves and cost–benefit ratios were used to estimate the best thresholds to predict ovulation. Results: The best scenario to predict ovulation at random was within 24 h after the first single positive test. The false-positive rate was found to increase as (1) the cycle progressed or (2) two or three consecutive tests were used, or (3) ovulation was predicted within 48 or 72 h. Testing earlier in the cycle increases the predictive value of the test. The ideal thresholds to predict ovulation ranged between 25 and 30 mIU/ml with a PPV (50–60%), NPV (98%), LR+ (20–30), and LR− (0.5). At least, one day with LH ≥25 mIU/ml followed by three negatives (LH <25) occurred before ovulation in 31% of all cycles. When used throughout the cycle and evaluated together, peak-fertility type mucus with a positive LH test ≥25 mIU/ml provides a higher specificity than either mucus or LH testing alone (97–99 vs. 77–95 vs. 91%, respectively). Conclusion: We identified that beginning LH testing earlier in the cycle (day 7) with a threshold of 25–30 mIU/ml may present the best predictive value for ovulation within 24 h. However, prediction by LH testing alone may be affected negatively by several confounding factors so LH testing alone should not be used to define the end of the fertile window. Complementary markers should be further investigated to predict ovulation and identify the fertile window. The use of the peak cervical mucus along with an LH test may provide a higher specificity and predictive value than either of them alone. We recommend that manufacturers disclose their tests’ threshold to the public.

Rationale Ovulation confirmation is a fundamental component of the evaluation of infertility. Purpose To inform the design of a larger clinical trial to determine the effectiveness of a new home-based pregnanediol glucuronide (PDG) urine test to confirm ovulation when compared with the standard of serum progesterone. Methods In this observational prospective cohort study (single group assignment) in an urban setting (stage 1), a convenience sample of 25 women (aged 18–42 years) collected daily first morning urine for luteinisinghormone (LH), PDG and kept a daily record of their cervical mucus for one menstrual cycle. Serum progesterone levels were measured to confirm ovulation. Sensitivity and specificity were used as the main outcome measures. Estimation of number of ultrasound (US)-monitored cycles needed for a future study was done using an exact binomial CI approach. Results Recruitment over 3 months was achieved (n=28) primarily via natural fertility regulation social groups. With an attrition rate of 22%, specificity of the test was 100% for confirming ovulation. Sensitivity varied depending on whether a peak-fertility mucus day or a positive LH test was observed during the cycle (85%–88%). Fifty per cent of participants found the test results easy to determine. A total of 73 US-monitored cycles would be needed to offer a narrow CI between 95% and 100%. Conclusion This is first study to clinically evaluate this test when used as adjunct to the fertility awareness methods. While this pilot study was not powered to validate or test efficacy, it helped to provide information on power, recruitment and retention, acceptability of the procedures and ease of its use by the participants. Given this test had a preliminary result of 100% specificity, further research with a larger clinical trial (stage 2) is recommended to both improve this technology and incorporate additional approaches to confirm ovulation. Trial registration number NCT03230084

Objective: Explore potential relationships between preovulatory, periovulatory, and luteal-phase characteristics in normally cycling women. Design: Observational study. Setting: Eight European natural family planning clinics. Patient(s): Ninety-nine women contributing 266 menstrual cycles. Intervention(s): The participants collected first morning urine samples that were analyzed for estrone-3 glucuronide (E1G), pregnanediol-3- alpha-glucuronide (PDG), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), and luteinizing hormone (LH). The participants underwent serial ovarian ultrasound examinations. Main Outcome Measure(s): Four outcome measures were analyzed: short luteal phase, low mid-luteal phase PDG level (mPDG), normal then low luteal PDG level, low then normal luteal PDG level. Results: A long preovulatory phase was a predictor of short luteal phase, with or without adjustment for other variables. A high periovulatory PDG level was a predictor for short luteal phase as well as normal then low luteal PDG level. A low periovulatory PDG level predicted low mPDG and low then normal luteal PDG level, with or without adjustment for other variables. A small maximum follicle predicted normal then low luteal PDG level, with or without adjustment for other variables. The relationship between small maximum follicle size and short luteal phase or small maximum follicle size and low mPDG was no longer present when the regression was adjusted for certain characteristics. A younger age at menarche and a high body mass index were both predictors of low mPDG. Conclusion: Luteal phase abnormalities exist over a spectrum where some ovulation disorders may exist as deviations from the normal ovulatory process.This study confirms the negative impact of a small follicle size on the quality of the luteal phase. The occurrence of normal then low luteal PDG level is confirmed as a potential sign of luteal phase abnormality.

What is the effect of oestrogen and progesterone at the beginning of the menstrual cycle in delaying entry into the fertile window? Both oestrogen and progesterone contribute to a delay in the onset of the fertile window. Oestrogen enhances cervical mucus secretion while progesterone inhibits it. Observational study. Daily observation of 220 menstrual cycles contributed by 88 women with no known menstrual cycle disorder. Women recorded cervical mucus daily and collected first-morning urine samples for analysis of oestrone-3-glucuronide, pregnanediol-3-alpha-glucuronide (PDG), FHS, and LH. They underwent serial ovarian ultrasound examinations. The main outcome measure was the timing within the cycle of the onset of the fertile window, as identified by the appearance of mucus felt or seen at the vulva. Low oestrogen secretion and persistent progesterone secretion during the first week of the menstrual cycle both negatively affect mucus secretion. Doubling oestrogen approximately doubled the odds of entering the fertile window (OR: 1.82 95% CI=1.23; 2.69). Increasing PDG from below 1.5 to 4 µg/mg creatinine was associated with a 2-fold decrease in the odds of entering the fertile window (OR: 0.51 95% CI=0.31; 0.82). Prolonged progesterone secretion during the first week of the menstrual cycle was also statistically significantly associated with higher LH secretion. Finally, the later onset of the fertile window was associated with statistically significant persistently elevated LH secretion during the luteal phase of the previous menstrual cycle. This post hoc study was conducted to assess the potential impact of residual progesterone secretion at the beginning of the menstrual cycle. It was conducted on an existing data set because of the scarcity of data available to answer the question. Analysis with other datasets with similar hormone results would be useful to confirm these findings. This study provides evidence for residual progesterone secretion in the early latency phase of some menstrual cycles, which may delay the onset of the fertile window. This progesterone secretion may be supported by subtly increased LH secretion during the few days before and after the onset of menses, which may relate to follicular waves in the luteal phase. Persistent progesterone secretion should be considered in predicting the onset of the fertile window and in assessing ovulatory dysfunction. The authors declare no conflicts of interest. No funding was provided for this secondary data analysis. N/A.

University-affiliated private family practice in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.