Recent decades have seen food markets and value chains become increasingly global—a trend that creates challenges as well as opportunities for food systems. Positive trade effects on food security are not always self-evident in food deficit low-income countries. Moreover, whereas international trade may also be used to balance regional differences in climate change impacts and biodiversity, trade can exacerbate environmental challenges associated with food production, land use and climate change. This article argues that, for trade to drive inclusive and sustainable growth of nutritious food production in food deficit low-income countries, policies and investments in these countries must focus on three key priorities: 1) diversifying production and markets to increase resilience to external shocks; 2) enhancing competitiveness and improving market access for local farmers and SMEs, and 3) incorporating externalities in international trade. The latter requires collective international action.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to exacerbate food insecurity around the world, as both countries are major exporters of grains and other agricultural products. In this model-based scenario study, medium-term effects of the war are quantified on agricultural production, trade flows, market prices, food security, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios assess the possible consequences of macro-economic and agricultural production impacts in Ukraine, trade sanctions against Russia, and conflict-related energy price developments for global trade, food security, and greenhouse gas emissions. From a food security perspective, we conclude that there is enough food on the global level, but higher food and energy prices cause problems for low-income populations, spending a large part of their income on staple foods. Agricultural production and area expansion in parts of the world other than Ukraine and Russia could pose a risk to biodiversity and lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions related to land. However, total greenhouse gas emissions might decrease as lower emissions from less use of fossil energy due to higher energy and fertilizer prices in the whole economy dominate additional emissions resulting from land use change.

The urbanisation in the Global South provides opportunities for improved rural livelihoods in the vicinity of cities, but these opportunities do not automatically occur. The literature shows that urban expansion leads to more intensive land use around cities and a shift of production towards high-value products. However, competition for land around growing cities can lead to increasing socioeconomic vulnerability in affected areas, particularly for those who have no or weak land ownership or tenancy rights. Urban expansion can also have negative ecological consequences such as the extinction of wetlands and deforestation. In the current literature, there are very few studies to be found that comprehensively and simultaneously analyse the effects of growing cities on food security, equity, and the ecological impacts on food systems in rural areas. To better map and understand the consequences of urban growth for agricultural dynamics, rural livelihoods, and the environment, a three-track research agenda is proposed: comparative field studies that analyse farmers’ decision-making processes under increased competition for factors of production due to urban sprawl; the role of urban–rural connectivity, city size, and urbanisation patterns in agricultural dynamics around the city; and studies that analyse the socioeconomic and environmental effects of urban sprawl on agricultural development opportunities around cities.

Whereas most indicators for food systems performance only focus on outcomes, we explore the prospects for a kind of Food Systems Index (FSI) that tries to capture several key components that influence differences in food system performance at country level. We outline the theoretical foundations and methodological approach underlying the FSI framework and illustrate its relevance for understanding major food system characteristics. We therefore focus on major FSI differences between regions and types of countries and compare FSI outcomes across different types of food systems and in relationship to other indicators of change in the rural and economic structure. We explain the potential of the FSI framework for identifying more coherent food system policies but also acknowledge the challenges for its further operationalization.