In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Central basin hypoxia. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 40(2), 226-246. doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2014.02.00

Daloğlu, I., J. I. Nassauer, R. Riolo, and D. Scavia. 2014. An integrated social and ecological modeling framework—impacts of agricultural conservation practices on water quality. Ecology and Society 19(3): 12.http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06597-190312

For millennia, cities have invested in inter- and intra-regional infrastructure to transfer water from neighboring sources. This study analyzed how climate change can affect the balance of water supply and demand in the megacity of Istanbul, Turkey over the next 100 years. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) method was used to examine three long-term scenarios for water availability based on differences in water supply: 1) a continuation of current supply sources; 2) expansion of water resources based on construction of additional water infrastructure; and 3) reduction in water resources to rely on local resources only. Our findings show that extending dependence on inter-regional water supplies is not only likely to increase Istanbul’s own water insecurity, but may also affect the human populations, biodiversity and economies of neighboring cities, representing an unsustainable solution that can only exacerbate regional water insecurity in the long run.