Abstract  We propose a simple statistical approach for using Dispersal–Vicariance Analysis (DIVA) software to infer biogeographic histories without fully bifurcating trees. In this approach, ancestral ranges are first optimized for a sample of Bayesian trees. The probability P of an ancestral range r at a node is then calculated as where Y is a node, and F(r_Y) is the frequency of range r among all the optimal solutions resulting from DIVA optimization at node Y, t is one of n topologies optimized, and Pt is the probability of topology t. Node Y is a hypothesized ancestor shared by a specific crown lineage and the sister of that lineage “x”, where x may vary due to phylogenetic uncertainty (polytomies and nodes with posterior probability <100%). Using this method, the ancestral distribution at Y can be estimated to provide inference of the geographic origins of the specific crown group of interest. This approach takes into account phylogenetic uncertainty as well as uncertainty from DIVA optimization. It is an extension of the previously described method called Bayes‐DIVA, which pairs Bayesian phylogenetic analysis with biogeographic analysis using DIVA. Further, we show that the probability P of an ancestral range at Y calculated using this method does not equate to pp*F(r_Y) on the Bayesian consensus tree when both variables are <100%, where pp is the posterior probability and F(r_Y) is the frequency of range r for the node containing the specific crown group. We tested our DIVA‐Bayes approach using Aesculus L., which has major lineages unresolved as a polytomy. We inferred the most probable geographic origins of the five traditional sections of Aesculus and of Aesculus californica Nutt. and examined range subdivisions at parental nodes of these lineages. Additionally, we used the DIVA‐Bayes data from Aesculus to quantify the effects on biogeographic inference of including two wildcard fossil taxa in phylogenetic analysis. Our analysis resolved the geographic ranges of the parental nodes of the lineages of Aesculus with moderate to high probabilities. The probabilities were greater than those estimated using the simple calculation of pp*F(r_y) at a statistically significant level for two of the six lineages. We also found that adding fossil wildcard taxa in phylogenetic analysis generally increased P for ancestral ranges including the fossil's distribution area. The ΔP was more dramatic for ranges that include the area of a wildcard fossil with a distribution area underrepresented among extant taxa. This indicates the importance of including fossils in biogeographic analysis. Exmination of range subdivision at the parental nodes revealed potential range evolution (extinction and dispersal events) along the stems of A. californica and sect. Parryana.

The eastern Asian (EAS)-eastern North American (ENA) floristic disjunction is one of the best-known biogeographic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent paleontological and molecular analyses have illuminated the origins of the biogeographic pattern, but subsequent diversification and evolution of the disjunct floras in each of the two continents after isolation remains poorly understood. Although similar in climate and floristic composition, EAS has twice as many species as ENA in genera occurring in both regions. Explaining such differences in species diversity between regions with similar environmental conditions (diversity anomalies) is an important goal of the study of the global patterns of biodiversity. We used a phylogenetic approach to compare rates of net speciation and molecular evolution between the two regions. We first identified EAS-ENA disjunct sister clades from ten genera (Asarum, Buckleya, Carpinus, Carya, Cornus, Hamamelis, Illicium, Panax, Stewartia, and Styrax) that represent diverse angiosperm lineages using phylogenetic analyses of ITS (internal transcribed spacer of nuclear ribosomal DNA) sequence data. Species richness and substitution rate of ITS between sister clades were compared. The results revealed a pattern of greater species diversity in the EAS counterparts. A positive relationship between species diversity and ITS substitution rate was also documented. These results suggest greater net speciation and accelerated molecular evolution in EAS. The data support the idea that a regional difference in net speciation rate related to topographic heterogeneity contributes to the diversity anomaly between EAS and ENA. The close relationship between rates of ITS evolution and species richness further suggests that species production may be directly linked to rate of nucleotide substitution.

Premise: Cornales is an order of flowering plants containing ecologically and horticulturally important families, including Cornaceae (dogwoods) and Hydrangeaceae (hydrangeas), among others. While many relationships in Cornales are strongly supported by previous studies, some uncertainty remains with regards to the placement of Hydrostachyaceae and to relationships among families in Cornales and within Cornaceae. Here we analyzed hundreds of nuclear loci to test published phylogenetic hypotheses and estimated a robust species tree for Cornales.Methods: Using the Angiosperms353 probe set and existing data sets, we generated phylogenomic data for 158 samples, representing all families in the Cornales, with intensive sampling in the Cornaceae.Results: We curated an average of 312 genes per sample, constructed maximum likelihood gene trees, and inferred a species tree using the summary approach implemented in ASTRAL‐III, a method statistically consistent with the multispecies coalescent model.Conclusions: The species tree we constructed generally shows high support values and a high degree of concordance among individual nuclear gene trees. Relationships among families are largely congruent with previous molecular studies, except for the placement of the nyssoids and the Grubbiaceae‐Curtisiaceae clades. Furthermore, we were able to place Hydrostachyaceae within Cornales, and within Cornaceae, the monophyly of known morphogroups was well supported. However, patterns of gene tree discordance suggest potential ancient reticulation, gene flow, and/or ILS in the Hydrostachyaceae lineage and the early diversification of Cornus. Our findings reveal new insights into the diversification process across Cornales and demonstrate the utility of the Angiosperms353 probe set.

The arcto-Tertiary relictual flora is comprised of many genera that occur non-contiguously in the temperate zones of eastern Asia, Europe, eastern North America, and western North America. Within each distributional area, species are typically endemic and may thus be widely separated from closely related species within the other areas. It is widely accepted that this common pattern of distribution resulted from of the fragmentation of a once more-continuous arcto-Tertiary forest. The historical biogeographic events leading to the present-day disjunction have often been investigated using a phylogenetic approach. Limitations to these previous studies have included phylogenetic uncertainty and uncertainty in ancestral range reconstructions. However, the recently described Bayes-DIVA method handles both types of uncertainty. Thus, we used Bayes-DIVA analysis to reconstruct the stem lineage distributions for 185 endemic lineages from 23 disjunct genera representing 17 vascular plant families. In particular, we asked whether endemic lineages within each of the four distributional areas more often evolved from (1) widespread ancestors, (2) ancestors dispersed from other areas, or (3) endemic ancestors. We also considered which of these three biogeographic mechanisms may best explain the origins of arcto-Tertiary disjunct endemics in the neotropics. Our results show that eastern Asian endemics more often evolved from endemic ancestors compared to endemics in Europe and eastern and western North America. Present-day endemic lineages in the latter areas more often arose from widespread ancestors. Our results also provide anecdotal evidence for the importance of dispersal in the biogeographic origins of arcto-Tertiary species endemic in the neotropics.