The literature on gravity equations has recently shown that flows between two countries are not merely impacted by their structural bilateral determinants but also affected by their relative accessibility vis-à-vis other countries. The idea can be extended to tourism analysis: bilateral tourism flows are not only determined by factors affecting the attractiveness of the destination country but also depend on the attractiveness of alternative destinations. This effect can be termed ‘multilateral resistance to tourism’ (MRT) and embodied in cross-sectional correlation across the main tourism determinants. In this paper, we show that the standard estimation techniques applied in tourism analysis fail to properly account for the MRT, yielding biased estimates and nonstationary residuals. We cast the gravity model into the common factor framework and employ the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator to obtain unbiased estimates of some standard determinants of tourism flows in the context of 35 OECD members during 1995–2015. Our CCE results show that the impact of a number of regressors becomes negligible and insignificant, highlighting their role as vectors of cross-section dependence. Our findings stress the need for analyzing the data to detect the magnitude of the cross-sectional dependence and, when the latter is omnipresent, employing MRT-robust estimations.
Using regional data encompassing 155 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) regions across the EU-28 member states, we estimate the effect of tourist arrivals (total, domestic, and foreign) on regional growth over 2000-2018. Our empirical strategy tackles three data properties that cripple common econometric approaches: cross-section dependence, nonstationarity, and the endogeneity of the regressors. In addition to “pooled” models that assume common parameters across regions, we run “heterogeneous” models where parameters are allowed to differ between regions. Results of the pooled estimations show that domestic and total tourism inflows have positively and significantly contributed to growth, and the positive effect of foreign tourism is statistically discernible in regions that are mainly destinations for foreign tourists. Findings based on region-specific regressions reveal that the average impact on regional growth of tourist inflows is positive and significant, and large regional disparities in terms of the growth impact of domestic/foreign tourism exist.
We use regional data across 27 European countries and look into the effect of tourist arrivals on regional growth during 2000–2017. The research is set in an augmented Solow model estimated via a rich and flexible empirical strategy, with different underlying assumptions about the impacts of the regressors and unobservables. A first demarcation line across our set of estimators is between the ‘pooled’ estimators (assuming common parameters across regions) and the ‘heterogeneous’ ones (allowing for region-specific parameters). An additional axis of differentiation lies in the way the impact of unobservables is accounted for via the estimation method: some methodologies hypothesize a common impact of the latter across space, while others make room for a possible differentiated effect over the regions. Among the pooled estimators, our preferred one reveals a positive and significant contribution of tourism to regional growth. Among the heterogeneous estimators, our favored one corroborates the previous result and uncovers vast regional disparities in terms of the effect of tourist arrivals on growth. A preliminary investigation suggests that regions endowed with a large share of highly educated population experienced the greatest growth-impact of tourist arrivals.
1 January 2016 in Review of Middle East Economics and Finance
With the entry into force of the Pan Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) in 2005, intra-Arab trade became tariff free, completing the trade liberalization process started in 1998. Making use of data covering the 1998–2012 period, we estimate the impact of PAFTA on intra-Arab trade in manufactured goods using a gravity model and applying panel data estimation techniques. Results suggest that PAFTA has increased intra-members’ trade by nearly 20 %. We also examine potential changes in the trends of Arab countries’ imports of manufactured goods from their main providers after the entry into force of PAFTA. In this respect, there is some evidence of an increase in Arab countries’ imports from Asia from 2005 onwards, in relation to the 1998–2004 period.
We employ a recent empirical strategy to estimate country-specific and time-varying total factor productivity (TFP) levels for the manufacturing sector of 63 countries over 40 years. The methodology is based on estimated country-specific production functions while accounting for cross-section dependence and nonstationary series. We then analyze the derived TFP series across the entire sample and several regional groupings (Asia, Europe and Central Asia (ECA), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and the USA). Our analysis reveals the following. Firstly, the TFP that is common across countries has an upward trend with a significant slump in 2008. Secondly, the leading positions in terms of productivity in the manufacturing sector remained the prerogative of major developed countries. Thirdly, several countries succeeded in climbing the ladder through outstanding productivity growth. Fourthly, despite a clear hierarchy in terms of manufacturing productivity across regional blocs, all regions witnessed an increase in productivity over the period. Fifthly, there is evidence of convergence in the TFP across countries and within Asia and ECA before a potential break in 2008.
28 June 2024 in The Journal of Economic Integration