We define a mean-field semantics for S-PALPS, a process calculus for spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling of ecological systems. The new semantics of S-PALPS allows an interpretation of the average behavior of a system as a set of recurrence equations. Recurrence equations are a useful approximation when dealing with a large number of individuals, as it is the case in epidemiological studies. As a case study, we compute a set of recurrence equations capturing the dynamics of an individual-based model of the transmission of dengue in Bello (Antioquia), Colombia.Comment: In Proceedings DCM 2015, arXiv:1603.0053

This paper presents the parameter estimation of a biological system with real data extracted from literature, and different model structures: Lotka-Volterra model (basic predator-prey model) and saturation predator-prey model. A third model is proposed and tested in simulation due to lack of appropriated real data; it includes inputs that excite the system and makes the estimation process more manageable. The model parameters were estimated using a genetic algorithm, which gives a combination of parameters used in simulation to compare outputs with real data and decide, using a cost function, which parameters are better. Comparing the models, the Lotka-Volterra model provides better adjustment but with unrealistic assumptions, while saturation model represents a system with real assumptions but the fit is not very high.