Few studies have been conducted on the effect of air pollution on morbidity in Latin America. This study analyzed the effects of air pollution on respiratory and circulatory morbidity in four major cities in Colombia. An ecological time-series analysis was conducted with pollution data from air quality monitoring networks and information on emergency department visits between 2011 and 2014. Daily 24-h averages were calculated for NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and SO₂ as well as 8-h averages for CO and O₃. Separate time-series were constructed by disease group and pollutant. Conditional negative binomial regression models were used with average population effects. Effects were calculated for the same day and were adjusted for weather conditions, age groups, and their interactions. The results showed that effects of some of the pollutants differed among the cities. For NO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5, the multi-city models showed greater and statistically significant percentage increases in emergency department visits for respiratory diseases, particularly for the 5 to 9-year-old age group. These same pollutants also significantly affected the rate of emergency department visits for circulatory diseases, especially for the group of persons over 60 years of age.

Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

Either benznidazole (BZN) or nifurtimox (NFX) is recommended as equivalent to treat Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Nonetheless, supportive data from randomised trials is limited to individuals treated with BZN in southern cone countries of Latin America. The goal of this randomised, concealed, blind, parallel-group trial is to inform the trypanocidal efficacy and safety of NFX and its equivalence to BZN among individuals with T. cruzi positive serology (TC+). Eligible individuals are TC+, 20–65 years old, with no apparent symptoms/signs or uncontrolled risk factors for cardiomyopathy and at negligible risk of re-infection. Consenting individuals (adherent to a 10-day placebo run-in phase) receive a 120-day BID blinded treatment with NFX, BZN or matching placebo (2:2:1 ratio). The four active medication arms include (1) a randomly allocated sequence of 60-day, conventional-dose (60CD) regimes (BZN 300 mg/day or NFX 480 mg/day, ratio 1:1), followed or preceded by a 60-day placebo treatment, or (2) 120-day half-dose (120HD) regimes (BZN 150 mg/day or NFX 240 mg/day, ratio 1:1). The primary efficacy outcome is the proportion of participants testing positive at least once for up to three polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays (1 + PCR) 12–18 months after randomisation. A composite safety outcome includes moderate to severe adverse reactions, consistent blood marker abnormalities or treatment abandons. The trial outside Colombia (expected to recruit at least 60% of participants) is pragmatic; it may be open-label and not include all treatment groups, but it must adhere to the randomisation and data administration system and guarantee a blinded efficacy outcome evaluation. Our main comparisons include NFX groups with placebo (for superiority), NFX versus BZN groups and 60CD versus 120HD groups (for non-inferiority) and testing for the agent-dose and group-region interactions. Assuming a 1 + PCR ≥ 75% in the placebo group, up to 25% among BZN-treated and an absolute difference of up to ≥ 25% with NFX to claim its trypanocidal effect, 60–80 participants per group (at least 300 from Colombia) are needed to test our hypotheses (80–90% power; one-sided alpha level 1%). The EQUITY trial will inform the trypanocidal effect and equivalence of nitroderivative agents NFX and BZN, particularly outside southern cone countries. Its results may challenge current recommendations and inform choices for these agents. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02369978 . Registered on 24 February 2015.

Rapidly urbanizing cities in Latin America experience high levels of air pollution which are known risk factors for population health. However, the estimates of long-term exposure to air pollution are scarce in the region. We developed intraurban land use regression (LUR) models to map long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in the five largest cities in Colombia. We conducted air pollution measurement campaigns using gravimetric PM_2.5 and passive NO₂ sensors for 2 weeks during both the dry and rainy seasons in 2021 in the cities of Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Bogotá, Cali, and Medellín, and combined these data with geospatial and meteorological variables. Annual models were developed using multivariable spatial regression models. The city annual PM_2.5 mean concentrations measured ranged between 12.32 and 15.99 µg/m³ while NO₂ concentrations ranged between 24.92 and 49.15 µg/m³. The PM_2.5 annual models explained 82% of the variance (R²) in Medellín, 77% in Bucaramanga, 73% in Barranquilla, 70% in Cali, and 44% in Bogotá. The NO₂ models explained 65% of the variance in Bucaramanga, 57% in Medellín, 44% in Cali, 40% in Bogotá, and 30% in Barranquilla. Most of the predictor variables included in the models were a combination of specific land use characteristics and roadway variables. Cross-validation suggests that PM_2.5 outperformed NO₂ models. The developed models can be used as exposure estimate in epidemiological studies, as input in hybrid models to improve personal exposure assessment, and for policy evaluation.

According to the World Health Organization, 98% of fatal dengue cases can be prevented; however, endemic countries such as Colombia have recorded higher case fatality rates during recent epidemics. We aimed to identify the predictors of mortality that allow risk stratification and timely intervention in patients with dengue. We conducted a hospital-based, case–control (1:2) study in two endemic areas of Colombia (2009–2015). Fatal cases were defined as having either 1) positive serological test (IgM or NS1), 2) positive virological test (RT-PCR or viral isolation), or 3) autopsy findings compatible with death from dengue. Controls (matched by state and year) were hospitalized nonfatal patients and had a positive serological or virological dengue test. Exposure data were extracted from medical records by trained staff. We used conditional logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, disease’s duration, and health-care provider) in the context of multiple imputation to estimate exposure to case–control associations. We evaluated 110 cases and 217 controls (mean age: 35.0 versus 18.9; disease’s duration pre-admission: 4.9 versus 5.0 days). In multivariable analysis, retro-ocular pain (odds ratios [OR] = 0.23), nausea (OR = 0.29), and diarrhea (OR = 0.19) were less prevalent among fatal than nonfatal cases, whereas increased age (OR = 2.46 per 10 years), respiratory distress (OR = 16.3), impaired consciousness (OR = 15.9), jaundice (OR = 32.2), and increased heart rate (OR = 2.01 per 10 beats per minute) increased the likelihood of death (AUC: 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 0.99). These results provide evidence that features of severe dengue are associated with higher mortality, which strengthens the recommendations related to triaging patients in dengue-endemic areas.