Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power integration. Because the traditional single model cannot fully characterize the fluctuating characteristics of wind power, scholars have attempted to build other prediction models based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) or ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to tackle this problem. However, the prediction accuracy of these models is affected by modal aliasing and illusive components. Aimed at these defects, this paper proposes a multi-frequency combination prediction model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD). We use a back propagation neural network (BPNN), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) to predict high, intermediate, and low frequency components, respectively. Based on the predicted values of each component, the BPNN is applied to combine them into a final wind power prediction value. Finally, the prediction performance of the single prediction models (ARMA, BPNN, LS-SVM) and the decomposition prediction models (EMD and EEMD) are used to compare with the proposed VMD model according to the evaluation indices such as average absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error to validate its feasibility and accuracy. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed VMD model is higher.

Due to the existing large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power generation installations, accurate PV power forecasting is critical to the safe and economical operation of electric power systems. In this study, a hybrid short-term forecasting method based on the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) technique, the Deep Belief Network (DBN) and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) is proposed to deal with the problem of forecasting accuracy. The DBN model combines a forward unsupervised greedy layer-by-layer training algorithm with a reverse Back-Projection (BP) fine-tuning algorithm, making full use of feature extraction advantages of the deep architecture and showing good performance in generalized predictive analysis. To better analyze the time series of historical data, VMD decomposes time series data into an ensemble of components with different frequencies; this improves the shortcomings of decomposition from Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) processes. Classification is achieved via the spectrum characteristics of modal components, the high-frequency Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) components are predicted using the DBN, and the low-frequency IMFs components are predicted using the ARMA. Eventually, the forecasting result is generated by reconstructing the predicted component values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, it is tested based on the practical information of PV power generation data from a real case study in Yunnan. The proposed approach is compared, respectively, with the single prediction models and the decomposition-combined prediction models. The evaluation of the forecasting performance is carried out with the normalized absolute average error, normalized root-mean-square error and Hill inequality coefficient; the results are subsequently compared with real-world scenarios. The proposed approach outperforms the single prediction models and the combined forecasting methods, demonstrating its favorable accuracy and reliability.

Interval prediction of wind power, which features the upper and lower limits of wind power at a given confidence level, plays a significant role in accurate prediction and stability of the power grid integrated with wind power. However, the conventional methods of interval prediction are commonly based on a hypothetic probability distribution function, which neglects the correlations among various variables, leading to decreased prediction accuracy. Therefore, in this paper, we improve the multi-objective interval prediction based on the conditional copula function, through which we can fully utilize the correlations among variables to improve prediction accuracy without an assumed probability distribution function. We use the multi-objective optimization method of non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) to obtain the optimal solution set. The particular best solution is weighted by the prediction interval average width (PIAW) and prediction interval coverage probability (PICP) to pick the optimized solution in practical examples. Finally, we apply the proposed method to three wind power plants in different Chinese cities as examples for validation and obtain higher prediction accuracy compared with other methods, i.e., relevance vector machine (RVM), artificial neural network (ANN), and particle swarm optimization kernel extreme learning machine (PSO-KELM). These results demonstrate the superiority and practicability of this method in interval prediction of wind power.

Reducing carbon emissions and increasing the integration of new energy sources are key steps towards achieving sustainable development. Virtual power plants (VPPs) play a significant role in enhancing grid security and promoting the transition to clean, low-carbon energy. The core equipment of the VPP, the CHP unit, utilizes a thermal engine or power station to generate electricity and useful heat simultaneously. However, the intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy sources, as well as the “heat-driven power generation” mode of combined heat and power (CHP) units, presents contradictions that severely affect their peak-shifting capability and lead to high carbon emissions. To address these issues, a novel VPP is established by integrating traditional power plants with carbon capture and hydrogen energy storage. This approach utilizes a “hydrogen energy storage–electric boiler” decoupling method to address the operational mode of CHP, strengthens the coupling relationship between electric and thermal hydrogen loads, and considers a tiered carbon-trading mechanism. With the net profit of the VPP as the optimization objective, the model balances economic and environmental considerations and establishes a low-carbon economic dispatch model for the VPP. A genetic algorithm is employed for solving, and three different dispatch strategies are set for simulation in three distinct seasonal scenarios. The comprehensive comparative analysis of the dispatch results reveals a reduction in carbon emissions and an increase in net profit to varying degrees across all three seasons. Overall, the proposed dispatch strategy demonstrates the ability to enhance the new energy-integration capacity and total revenue of a VPP while simultaneously achieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions.

Reducing noise pollution in signals is of great significance in the field of signal detection. In order to reduce the noise in the signal and improve the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), this paper takes the singular value decomposition theory as the starting point, and constructs various singular value decomposition denoising models with multiple multi-division structures based on the two-division recursion singular value decomposition, and conducts a noise reduction analysis on two experimental signals containing noise of different power. Finally, the SNR and mean square error (MSE) are used as indicators to evaluate the noise reduction effect, it is verified that the two-division recursion singular value decomposition is the optimal noise reduction model. This noise reduction model is then applied to the diagnosis of faulty bearings. By this method, the fault signal is decomposed to reduce noise and the detail signal with maximum kurtosis is extracted for envelope spectrum analysis. Comparison of several traditional signal processing methods such as empirical modal decomposition (EMD), ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), variational mode decomposition (VMD), wavelet decomposition, etc. The results show that multi-resolution singular value decomposition (MRSVD) has better noise reduction effect and can effectively diagnose faulty bearings. This method is promising and has a good application prospect.