Predicting the deformation of landslides is significant for landslide early warning. Taking the Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) as a case, the displacement is decomposed into two components by a time series model (TSM). The least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) is selected to predict the landslide displacement prediction based on rainfall and reservoir water level (RWL). Five parameters, including rainfall over the previous month, rainfall over the previous two months, RWL, change in RWL over the previous month and period displacement over the previous half year, are selected as the input variables. The relationships between the five parameters and the landslide displacement are revealed by grey correlation analysis. The PSO-LSSVM model is used to predict the periodic term displacement (PTD), and the least squares method is applied to predict the trend term displacement (TTD). With the same input variables, the back propagation (BP) model and the PSO-SVM model are also developed for comparative analysis. In the PSO-LSSVM model, the R² of three monitoring stations is larger than 0.98, and the MAE values and the RMSE values are the smallest among the three models. The outcomes demonstrate that the PSO-LSSVM model has a high accuracy in predicting landslide displacement.

The rock mass on the bank slope of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area often suffers from a drying–wetting cycle (DWC). How the DWCs significantly affect the mechanical properties and the stability of the rock mass is worth comprehensively investigating. In this study, the influence of the DWC on the mechanical properties of red-bed rock, mainly purplish red argillaceous siltstone, is explored in detail. Triaxial compression tests were conducted on siltstones that were initially subjected to different DWCs. The results show that DWCs lead to a decrease in mechanical properties such as peak stress, residual stress, and elastic modulus, while an increase in confining pressure (CP) levels leads to an increase in these mechanical properties. Significant correlations are found between the energy parameters and the DWC or the CP. Notably, the total absorption energy (TAE) demonstrates a positive correlation with the CP, but the capability of siltstones to absorb energy shows a negative correlation with DWC. Moreover, the study also examines the damage evolution laws of rocks under different DWCs by proposing a damage variable (DV). Results demonstrate that the effect of the CP on the DV is more pronounced than that of DWCs. A novel brittleness index (BI) was also proposed for estimating rock brittleness through damage strain rate analysis. The effectiveness of the proposed BI is validated by evaluating the effects of DWCs and CP on rock brittleness. Finally, the failure mechanism of the rocks under water–rock interaction is revealed. The weakening of mechanical properties occurs due to the formation of microcracks in response to DWCs. These findings provide valuable guidance for the long-term stability assessment of bank slope engineering projects under DWCs.

The Upper Permian Longtan Shale is a significant reservoir in western Guizhou. To clarify the main factors controlling the low-mature marine–continental transitional shale pore development in western Guizhou, pore types were classified with scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and the pore developmental stages and morphological structures were quantitatively characterized by nitrogen adsorption isotherm analyses. Additionally, the qualitative or semi-quantitative relationships between the pore developmental stages and the main controlling factors were established via geochemical analysis. The results showed that the Longtan Shale pores include intergranular pores, intragranular pores, organic pores, and microfractures. The intergranular pore structures were categorized into ink-bottle, slit, layered, and irregular types. The intragranular pores were found to be of the elliptical, nearly circular, ink-bottle, and irregular varieties. The organic pores were categorized into elliptical, bubble-like, and irregular polygonal variants. The microfractures were only of the elongated type. The clay-mineral-related intergranular pores were the predominant pore type. The organic pores were found to be poorly developed. The mesopores were predominant, followed by macropores. The shale pore diameters ranged between 1 nm and 100 nm, and they are characterized by multiple peaks. The specific surface area (SSA) was primarily provided by nanopores in the range of 5 nm to 10 nm, such that the smaller pores provided a greater contribution to the SSA, and they are more conducive to shale gas adsorption and accumulation. Clay mineral content was the dominant internal factor controlling pore development and the SSA, with the illite–smectite mixed layer being the most obvious controlling factor. While too low or too high clay mineral content is adverse to macropore development, brittle mineral content, carbonate mineral content, and total organic carbon (TOC) content are adverse to pore development and the SSA. Thermal maturity has no remarkable control effect on pore volume and the SSA of non-organic pores.