This study contributes to estimate the total waste generated at global level. A few studies have provided an efficient and comprehensive global estimate. However, data reporting is globally inconsistent due to varying interpretation of terminology, lacking standardised categories and varying methodologies used to observe and measure waste amounts. This study employs regression analysis and material flow analysis approaches to ensure a cross-comparability of waste generation data. The result implies that total global waste arisings are around 20 billion tonnes in 2017. This corresponds to 2.63 tonnes of total waste per capita (cap) per year. The total global waste generated is expected to grow to 46 billion tonnes by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a much smaller amount, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 billion tonnes (average of 2.7 billion tonnes) in 2019. This figure reflects an increase of between 30% and 50% in MSW generated during the last 15 years (2004–2019). MSW generated is expected to grow to 2.89–4.54 billion tonnes by 2050, depending on which assumptions are used. This represents a 26%–45% increase compared to 2019. The overall assessment in this study reveals that almost one-third of the total MSW generated is not collected, and most of what is collected is not treated accordingly to current ideas of sound management. Moreover, almost 42% of MSW goes to open dumping or uncontrolled burning. The finding provides valuable insight for policymakers to design and assess circular economy policy instruments towards achieving sustainable development goals.

This review provides the history and current paradigms of waste management (WM) practices in developing nations during the last five decades. It explores the evolution of the challenges, complexities, and trends during this period. This paper, for the first time, presents an estimation of the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated in developing nations in the last five decades based on the material flow analysis approach. Overall, the amount of MSW in developing countries has increased from about 0.64 billion Mt in 1970 to 2 billion Mt in 2019. This review demonstrates the importance of finding new WM approaches in developing nations in the context of formulating policies, strategies, and highlights the major trends that re-define WM in developing countries. It also aims to present the holistic changes in technology, economic and environmental feasibility aspects to attain an integrated sustainable WM system in developing countries. Specific focus on open-burning, open-dumping, informal recycling, food waste, plastic pollution, and waste collection with reference to Sustainable Development Goals are explained. Drivers for the way forward including circular economy are investigated.

Proper management and treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW) plays a central role towards the reduction or elimination of uncontrolled disposal and the achievement of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with the reduction of its vast adverse environmental and health impacts. Despite that, till now, there has never been a quantitative analysis of the progress in waste management infrastructure delivery worldwide. In this paper, we provide valuable insights regarding the progress in new MSW infrastructure delivery based on a dataset of 1764 projects from 156 countries, for the period 2014–2019. We also estimate the magnitude of uncontrolled waste disposal practices worldwide by estimating the gap between the current MSW infrastructure delivery and actual changes in MSW generation. Our results show that the new capacity delivered during the six years period amounted to 243 million metric tonnes (Mt) (40 million Mt per year), out of which 45% was delivered in high-income countries, 37.5% in the People’s Republic of China and 17.5% in the rest of the world, mainly through thermal treatment (~57%) and landfilling (8%). The average allocated per capita budget of these projects during this period is about US$14, equivalent to US$2.33 (cap*year)⁻¹. Our main conclusion is that the share of uncontrolled disposal will continue to rise at least until 2028, reaching almost 730 million Mt per year. Evidently, the global community continues to face a serious challenge towards the implementation of the UN SDG 12, target 12.4 by 2020. The analysis demonstrates that infrastructure delivery must increase by four folds to eliminate uncontrolled disposal practices.