Impacts of global warming on streamflows were estimated for four large watersheds in New York State using a daily streamflow model. Three different 100-yr daily weather sequences were input to the model. The first was produced using statistics of current (1961–90) weather records. The second and third sequences were based on modifications of these historic statistics according to the monthly mean temperature and precipitation changes associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 as predicted by two different general circulation models. For 2 × CO 2 conditions, mean annual water balances for all four watersheds indicated modest (1–9%) decreases in precipitation, but much larger (16–42%) decreases in streamflow due to increases in evapotranspiration. Winter flows generally increased, but flows in the remaining seasons often decreased. Monthly streamflow changes varied considerably among watersheds, and we could not attribute these changes to specific differences in land uses or soils.

Oceania rivers are hotspots of DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) and DIP (dissolved inorganic phosphorus) transport due to humid/warm climate, typhoon-induced episodic rainfall and high tectonic activity that create an environment favorable for high/rapid runoff and soil erosion. In spite of its uniqueness, effects of hydrologic controls and land use on the transport behaviors of DIN and DIP are rarely documented. A 2 yr monitoring study for DIN and DIP from three headwater catchments with different cultivation gradient (0 To 8.9%) was implemented during a ~ 3 day interval with an additional monitoring campaign at a 3 h interval during typhoon periods. Results showed the DIN yields in the pristine, moderately cultivated (2.7%), and intensively cultivated (8.9%) watersheds were 8.3, 26, and 37 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively. For the DIP yields, they were 0.36, 0.35, and 0.56 kg P ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively. Higher year-round DIN concentrations and five times larger in DIN yields in intensively cultivated watersheds indicate DIN is more sensitive to land use changes. The high background DIN yield from the relatively pristine watershed was likely due to high atmospheric nitrogen deposition and large subterranean N pool. The correlations between runoff and concentration reveals that typhoon floods purge out more DIN from the subterranean reservoir, i.e., soil, by contrast, runoff washes off surface soil resulting in higher suspended sediment with higher DIP. Collectively, typhoon runoff contributes 20–70% and 47–80%, respectively, to the annual DIN and DIP exports. The DIN yield to DIP yield ratio varied from 97 to 410, which is higher than the global mean of ~ 18. Such a high ratio indicates a P-limiting condition in stream and the downstream aquatic environment. Based on our field observation, we constructed a conceptual model illustrating different remobilization mechanisms for DIN and DIP from headwaters in a mountainous river, which is analogous to typical Oceania rivers and the headwater of large rivers in similar climate zones. Our study advanced our understanding about the role of cyclones, which exert hydrological control, and land use on nutrient export in the Oceania region, benefiting watershed management under the context of climate change.

Hydrological assessment is critical to the successful implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of seven global circulation models (GCMs) associated with high and medium–low Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) for the period 2021–2040 and 2081–2100 were adopted to assess changes on runoffs in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive a hydrological model for impact assessment. Despite the projected magnitude of changes varied among different GCMs and RCPs, increasing runoffs in wet-season and decreasing in dry-season are observed in both periods, mainly attributed to the change in projected precipitation. Such changes are profound in cases of RCP 8.5 with respect to those of RCP 4.5 and in cases of 2081–2100 with respect to those of 2021–2040. Although the increasing runoffs would provide greater inflow to Lake Tana, the increase of precipitation in wet-season would imply a higher possibility of flash floods. On the other hand, decrease runoffs in dry-season further intensify existing shortage of irrigation water demand. These changes will have deleterious consequences on the economic wellbeing of the country and require successful implementation of adaption measures to reduce vulnerability.