Plantago asiatica L. is an important medicinal and edible plant in China, whose wild resources have declined sharply due to overharvesting. Accurately assessing its potential suitable habitats and identifying the dominant environmental factors are of great scientific significance for germplasm conservation. In this study, we focused on Jiangxi Province and, based on 79 field occurrence records and 29 environmental variables, employed a MaxEnt model optimized using the kuenm package (version 1.1.9) (AUC = 0.806) to simulate the potential distribution of this species under current and three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicated that static non-climatic factors at the regional scale—specifically, soil clay content (contribution rate: 56.7%)—were the dominant force determining the distribution of Plantago asiatica, with an influence far exceeding that of climatic and topographic factors. Under all future SSP scenarios, its distribution range exhibited notable spatiotemporal conservatism, and the centroid showed no long-distance migration. This study provides a scientific reference for optimizing the conservation framework of Plantago asiatica germplasm resources, identifying priority cultivation areas, and formulating regional adaptive management strategies.

Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of regional carbon storage is of great significance for achieving the “dual carbon” goals and optimizing territorial spatial patterns. This study integrated the PLUS and InVEST models to systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon storage in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, simulate its evolution trajectory under different scenarios in 2030, and identify its driving mechanisms using the GeoDetector model. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cropland was the dominant land use type in Hebei Province, and carbon storage exhibited a spatial pattern of “high in the northwest, low in the southeast.” Carbon storage increased from 16.23 × 10⁸ t to 16.31 × 10⁸ t, with a significantly slowed growth rate after 2010. (2) Multi-scenario simulations for 2030 indicate that under the natural development and economic priority scenarios, construction land expands significantly while cropland and grassland continue to decrease. In contrast, carbon storage shows an increasing trend under the ecological protection and cropland protection scenarios. (3) Driving factor analysis reveals that the spatial differentiation of carbon storage is primarily controlled by natural factors such as slope, elevation, and NDVI, while the explanatory power of anthropogenic factors, particularly population density, has significantly increased. The interaction between NDVI and slope exhibits a synergistic enhancement effect. This study elucidates the coupling mechanisms between land use change and carbon storage under different policy orientations, providing a scientific basis for territorial spatial optimization and the formulation of differentiated carbon neutrality pathways in Hebei Province.