The fourth industrial revolution (4IR) and the COVID-19 pandemic have profoundly influenced global trade dynamics and e-commerce activities. This study examines the impact of the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 alongside the opportunities created by artificial intelligence (AI) technologies under 4IR in the economies of the BRICS nations, with a specific focus on South Africa (SA). A performance assessment is conducted using non-positivist multi-criteria decision-making methods. South Africa's performance is compared with data from the public and private sectors in BRICS countries, considering factors such as rising unemployment and the growth of e-commerce, through a purposeful criterion selection framework. The integration of AI has not only maintained commercial flow but also enhanced sustainability and competitiveness during the pandemic. As economic activity slowed due to COVID-19, the pandemic simultaneously accelerated the adoption of e-commerce platforms as countries moved towards digital solutions. The South African analysis emphasizes the importance of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), as well as trade relations in the context of the 4IR. South African businesses are advised to invest in developing effective e-commerce strategies. The study also highlights issues such as inadequate infrastructure and limited access to digital resources, which have hindered the e-commerce sector during the pandemic.

Emerging stock markets provide great opportunities for investment growth and risk diversification. However, they are more vulnerable to extreme market events. This study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock performance in sub-Saharan African stock markets. An event study method was used to determine whether there was any significant difference in sector returns before and during the pandemic, and panel data regression was used to determine the causal relationship between COVID-19 events and the abnormal returns observed. Four stock exchanges were chosen, including the two largest and two fastest-growing markets in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the study’s findings, the information technology, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors outperformed during the pandemic, while the industrials, materials, and real estate sectors underperformed. The financial and consumer discretionary proved to be the most stable sectors during the pandemic. We also observed that the imposition of lockdown had a negative impact on the performance of most sectors in sub-Saharan African markets, whereas government assistance in the form of economic stimulus packages had no significant positive impact on stock performance except in the South African market. Furthermore, we find that increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths had no negative impact on capital markets, where stocks have responded positively to economic recovery aid. The study concludes that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stocks reacted more to government actions than the occurrence of the pandemic itself.

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sector volatility in sub-Saharan Africa by drawing evidence from two large and two small stock exchanges in the region. The analysis included stock-specific data, COVID-19 metrics, and macroeconomic indicators from January 2019 to July 2022. This study employs generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to estimate volatility and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in the form of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify significant factors driving stock volatility during the pandemic. The findings reveal significant volatility increases at the onset of the pandemic, with government stringency measures leading to increased volatility in larger exchanges, while the introduction of vaccination programs helped to reduce volatility. Weaker macroeconomic fundamentals impact volatility in smaller exchanges. The healthcare sector has emerged as the most resilient, while non-essential sectors, such as consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate, face greater vulnerability, especially in smaller exchanges. The research findings reveal that the heightened stock market volatility observed was mainly a result of the government’s actions to combat the spread of the pandemic, rather than its outbreak. We recommend that governments introduce sound policies to balance public health measures and economic stability, and that investors diversify their investments to reduce the impact of pandemics.