Plastic contamination of the environment is a global problem whose magnitude justifies the consideration of plastics as emergent geomaterials with chemistries not previously seen in Earth’s history. At the elemental level, plastics are predominantly carbon. The comparison of plastic stocks and fluxes to those of carbon reveals that the quantities of plastics present in some ecosystems rival the quantity of natural organic carbon and suggests that geochemists should now consider plastics in their analyses. Acknowledging plastics as geomaterials and adopting geochemical insights and methods can expedite our understanding of plastics in the Earth system. Plastics also can be used as global-scale tracers to advance Earth system science.

Mississippi River floods rank among the costliest climate-related disasters in the world. Improving flood predictability, preparedness, and response at seasonal to decadal time-scales requires an understanding of the climatic controls that govern flood occurrence. Linking flood occurrence to persistent modes of climate variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has proven challenging, due in part to the limited number of high-magnitude floods available for study in the instrumental record. To augment the relatively short instrumental record, we use output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to investigate the dynamical controls on discharge extremes of the lower Mississippi River. We show that through its regional influence on surface water storage, the warm phase of ENSO preconditions the lower Mississippi River to be vulnerable to flooding. In the 6–12 months preceding a flood, El Niño generates a positive precipitation anomaly over the lower Mississippi basin that gradually builds up soil moisture and reduces the basin’s infiltration capacity, thereby elevating the risk of a major flood during subsequent rainstorms. Our study demonstrates how natural climate variability mediates the formation of extreme floods on one of the world’s principal commercial waterways, adding significant predictive ability to near- and long-term forecasts of flood risk.

Climate exerted constraints on the growth and decline of past human societies but our knowledge of temporal and spatial climatic patterns is often too restricted to address causal connections. At a global scale, the inter-hemispheric thermal balance provides an emergent framework for understanding regional Holocene climate variability. As the thermal balance adjusted to gradual changes in the seasonality of insolation, the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated southward accompanied by a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon. Superimposed on this trend, anomalies such as the Little Ice Age point to asymmetric changes in the extratropics of either hemisphere. Here we present a reconstruction of the Indian winter monsoon in the Arabian Sea for the last 6000 years based on paleobiological records in sediments from the continental margin of Pakistan at two levels of ecological complexity: sedimentary ancient DNA reflecting water column environmental states and planktonic foraminifers sensitive to winter conditions. We show that strong winter monsoons between ca. 4500 and 3000 years ago occurred during a period characterized by a series of weak interhemispheric temperature contrast intervals, which we identify as the early neoglacial anomalies (ENA). The strong winter monsoons during ENA were accompanied by changes in wind and precipitation patterns that are particularly evident across the eastern Northern Hemisphere and tropics. This coordinated climate reorganization may have helped trigger the metamorphosis of the urban Harappan civilization into a rural society through a push–pull migration from summer flood-deficient river valleys to the Himalayan piedmont plains with augmented winter rains. The decline in the winter monsoon between 3300 and 3000 years ago at the end of ENA could have played a role in the demise of the rural late Harappans during that time as the first Iron Age culture established itself on the Ghaggar-Hakra interfluve. Finally, we speculate that time-transgressive land cover changes due to aridification of the tropics may have led to a generalized instability of the global climate during ENA at the transition from the warmer Holocene thermal maximum to the cooler Neoglacial.

Significance: Our article examines the relationship between the population size of Cahokia, one of the most significant archaeological sites in North America, and evidence for major flooding and drought events. We use changes in the concentrations of fecal molecules contained in lake sediment as a proxy of population change and directly compare these variations with paleoenvironmental data from the same sediment core. These data show that a shift to decreased summer precipitation and a Mississippi River flood occurred circa 1150 CE, coinciding with a decline in the region’s population and a major climate transition. Our study highlights the importance of multiple, concurrent environmental stressors in combination with societal tensions as contributors to sociopolitical change.

Floating microplastics are susceptible to sunlight-driven photodegradation, which can convert plastic carbon to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and can facilitate microplastic fragmentation by mechanical forces. To understand the photochemical fate of sub-millimeter buoyant plastics, ∼0.6 mm polypropylene microplastics were photodegraded while tracking plastic mass, carbon, and particle size distributions. Plastic mass loss and carbon loss followed linear kinetics. At most time points DOC accumulation accounted for under 50% of the total plastic carbon lost. DOC accumulation followed sigmoidal kinetics, not the exponential kinetics previously reported for shorter irradiations. Thus, we suggest that estimates of plastic lifespan based on exponential DOC accumulation are inaccurate. Instead, linear plastic-C mass and plastic mass loss kinetics should be used, and these methods result in longer estimates of photochemical lifetimes for plastics in surface waters. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that photoirradiation produced two distinct patterns of cracking on the particles. However, size distribution analyses indicated that fragmentation was minimal. Instead, the initial population of microplastics shrank in size during irradiations, indicating photoirradiation in tranquil waters (i.e., without mechanical forcing) dissolved sub-millimeter plastics without fragmentation.

Hydrologists and engineers routinely use flood frequency analyses to compute flood probabilities for mitigation, infrastructure planning, and emergency management. Conventional flood frequency analyses—in which annual discharge maxima from a stream gage are fit to a statistical probability distribution—often encounter large uncertainties when estimating extreme flood levels. Most gage records span relatively short periods of time (<100 years), and thus the most extreme and infrequently occurring flood events tend to be poorly represented in instrumental data sets. Here, we demonstrate how a new generation of paleoflood records derived from floodplain sediments can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of extreme flood probability estimates along alluvial rivers. We use a series of simulation experiments to show that incorporating large numbers of paleoflood events in flood frequency analyses can significantly reduce the uncertainty of extreme flood estimates when the paleoflood data are sufficiently accurate and precise. Our results illustrate that robust paleoflood records can improve the shape parameter of flood frequency distributions, which determine the thickness of distribution tails, when as many as 50 paleoflood events are incorporated. We conclude by demonstrating how an alluvial paleoflood data set reduces uncertainty in a flood frequency analysis for a gage on the lower Mississippi River. Finally, we provide recommendations for how to incorporate paleoflood information into flood frequency analysis to improve the accuracy of extreme flood probabilities.