Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)‐producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24°C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain‐specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain‐specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth—slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short‐term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.
The history of expansion of bloom-forming cold water dinoflagellates in the Northern Baltic Sea was studied using 100-year-old sediment archives of their resting cysts. Vertical cyst distributions of Biecheleria baltica and Apocalathium malmogiense, two dinoflagellates indistinguishable by light microscopy and not recognized as distinct species in monitoring, and chain-forming Peridiniella catenata were analysed in Pb210 and Cs137 dated layers of a sediment core from deep, hypoxic accumulation bottoms of the Gulf of Finland. Cyst profiles showed that B. baltica and A. malmogiense were already present in the Baltic spring phytoplankton community at the beginning of the 20th century. This confirms that B. baltica, which was only recognized in the late 1980s, is a native species in the area. A drastic increase in B. baltica cyst concentrations in the 1930s to 1960s coincided with the acceleration of anthropogenic eutrophication. Large cyst deposits accumulated over several decades in the sediment which, by the 1980s, amounted to the seed stock necessary to inoculate dominant blooms. In the cyst records A. malmogiense always contributed a minor fraction of the two species. P. catenata had a relatively short cyst record in Gulf of Finland sediments despite demonstrated long-term presence in the plankton, which emphasizes that cyst-based historic surveys are not suitable for all cyst-forming dinoflagellates. This was corroborated by correspondence analyses of long-term plankton and cyst records which validated the trends from the sediment archive for B. baltica and A. malmogiense, but failed to do so for P. catenata. Germination experiments with 100-year-old cysts revealed a remarkable long-term survival capacity of A. malmogiense, making this species a suitable model for resurrection studies testing adaptation in heavily impacted systems such as the Baltic Sea.