Non-migration is an adaptive strategy that has received little attention in environmental migration studies. We explore the leveraging factors of non-migration decisions of communities at risk in coastal Bangladesh, where exposure to both rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters is high. We apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to empirical data and assess how threat perception and coping appraisal influences migration decisions in farming communities suffering from salinization of cropland. This study consists of data collected through quantitative household surveys (n = 200) and semi-structured interviews from four villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Results indicate that most respondents are unwilling to migrate, despite better economic conditions and reduced environmental risk in other locations. Land ownership, social connectedness, and household economic strength are the strongest predictors of non-migration decisions. This study is the first to use the PMT to understand migration-related behaviour and the findings are relevant for policy planning in vulnerable regions where exposure to climate-related risks is high but populations are choosing to remain in place.

Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended.

People live under the constant threats of natural hazards in the coastal areas all over the world. Thus raise the questions: how do they react to the risk of those natural calamities and how do they adapt with the adverse situations that are derived by those calamities. Taking these into considerations, this research explores the ‘atlas of the locally adopted strategies’ to cope with adverse effects of cyclone Aila in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Particularly, this research has explored the community level practices in agriculture, housing, water resources, communication and employment generations. An empirical survey was undertaken with 145 respondents by using semi-structured interviews with selected social groups and their households’ assistants. Besides face-to-face interviews, this survey applied group level qualitative assessment methods i.e. FGD (focus group discussion), Social Domain Analyses, and In-depth Interviews to collect the data. Results show that people have started to cultivate saline tolerant rice and vegetables on raised homesteads. They are using dripping irrigation methods. Rain water harvesting and artificial aquifer tube-well have been introduced for water management. The houses’ mud walls have been replaced by or even newly rebuilt with Goran wood or bamboo sticks to save lives. They have formed groups to save money for the next disaster and taken out loans for small entrepreneurship projects. Due to the crises of fodder, pastureland and freshwater, people have started to rear small animals and birds like sheep, goat and pigeon instead of cow and buffalo. New technology based shrimp farming is another new innovation. Discussions were held on the pros and cons of all of the above strategies that help to design the long-term risk reduction planning at the local level and addresses the ‘not the need-based planning but the acceptance-based strategies’ mantra of development in context of community based disaster management planning. This paper adds values to the climate change adaptation field by addressing the acceptance of modern disaster risk reduction technologies into a traditionally modified approach based on the empirical evidence of coastal livelihood analysis in Bangladesh.

Migration is often understood to be a livelihood strategy to cope with the effects of environmental threats and climate change. Yet, the extent to which migration decisions differ due to the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events has been little explored. This paper employs household surveys in southwestern Bangladesh to explore this research gap. A multinominal regression model is used to simulate reported future migration decisions (200 sample households) in the context of both rapid-onset (i.e. cyclone and flood) and slow-onset (salinity, siltation, and riverbank erosion) environmental phenomena. Results show: i) previous disaster experience and increasing conflict in the community motivate migration in the near future in the context of slow-onset phenomena (salinity); (ii) economic strength and self-efficacy increase non-migration intention in both contexts of sudden and slow-onset events; and (iii) the extent and pattern of these influences on migration differ across demographics, including education, religion, and age. Importantly, this analysis shows that the relationship between migration decisions and the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events is influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, this research supports future adaptation planning specifically tailored to the type and exposure of extreme environmental events.

Due to climate change and its consequences to islands and coastal countries, the relocation of the people living in those vulnerable places has received a lot of attention from policy makers as well as academicians. There have been similar kinds of programs running in Bangladesh since the country’s independence in 1971, and people who are landless or victimized due to river bank erosion, cyclones, or floods have been relocated under the umbrella program called ‘Guchchagram’, i.e., cluster villages. Different ruling parties had used different names for the project due to the financial nature of the project, but none of them have significantly differed from the overall goals and objectives of relocated settlements and the betterment of the landless and extreme event victims. Particularly, this study asks how and to what extent the livelihood of relocated households has changed, and what the potentials and constraints of the relocated settlements are. Based on an empirical study at four Guchchagrams of Gopalganj Sadar Upazila, the study shows that there is a significant improvement in the livelihood conditions of the migrated people, but the locational disadvantages and access to agricultural production, the local employment market, and some of the targeted objectives of the project have not achieved. To some extent, the rehabilitated families have similar risks as they had before; however, available agricultural lands and proper allocation can reduce such livelihood risks.