The authors have intercompared the following six surface buoyancy flux estimates, averaged over the years 2005–07: two reanalyses [the recent ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim; hereafter ERA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–NCAR reanalysis 1 (hereafter NCEP1)], two recent flux products developed as an improvement of NCEP1 [the flux product by Large and Yeager and the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE)], and two ad hoc air–sea flux estimates that are obtained by combining the NCEP1 or ERA net radiative fluxes with turbulent flux estimates using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.0 bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA input variables. The accuracy of SOSE adjustments of NCEP1 atmospheric fields (which SOSE uses as an initial guess and a constraint) was assessed by verification that SOSE reduces the biases in the NCEP1 fluxes as diagnosed by the Working Group on Air–Sea Fluxes (Taylor), suggesting that oceanic observations may be a valuable constraint to improve atmospheric variables. Compared with NCEP1, both SOSE and Large and Yeager increase the net ocean heat loss in high latitudes, decrease ocean heat loss in the subtropical Indian Ocean, decrease net evaporation in the subtropics, and decrease net precipitation in polar latitudes. The large-scale pattern of SOSE and Large and Yeager turbulent heat flux adjustment is similar, but the magnitude of SOSE adjustments is significantly larger. Their radiative heat flux adjustments patterns differ. Turbulent heat fluxes determined by combining COARE bulk formulas with NCEP1 or ERA should not be combined with unmodified NCEP1 or ERA radiative fluxes as the net ocean heat gain poleward of 25°S becomes unrealistically large. The other surface flux products (i.e., NCEP1, ERA, Large and Yeager, and SOSE) balance more closely. Overall, the statistical estimates of the differences between the various air–sea heat flux products tend to be largest in regions with strong ocean mesoscale activity such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the western boundary currents.

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is examined using the data-assimilating, eddy-permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate, for 2005 and 2006. Surface formation due to air–sea buoyancy flux is estimated using Walin analysis, and diapycnal mixing is diagnosed as the difference between surface formation and transport across 30°S, accounting for volume change with time. Water in the density range 26.5 < σθ < 27.1 kg m−3 that includes SAMW is exported northward in all three ocean sectors, with a net transport of (18.2, 17.1) Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1; for years 2005, 2006); air–sea buoyancy fluxes form (13.2, 6.8) Sv, diapycnal mixing removes (−14.5, −12.6) Sv, and there is a volume loss of (−19.3, −22.9) Sv mostly occurring in the strongest SAMW formation locations. The most vigorous SAMW formation is in the Indian Ocean by air–sea buoyancy flux (9.4, 10.9) Sv, where it is partially destroyed by diapycnal mixing (−6.6, −3.1) Sv. There is strong export to the Pacific, where SAMW is destroyed both by air–sea buoyancy flux (−1.1, −4.6) Sv and diapycnal mixing (−5.6, −8.4) Sv. In the South Atlantic, SAMW is formed by air–sea buoyancy flux (5.0, 0.5) Sv and is destroyed by diapycnal mixing (−2.3, −1.1) Sv. Peaks in air–sea flux formation occur at the Southeast Indian and Southeast Pacific SAMWs (SEISAMWs, SEPSAMWs) densities. Formation over the broad SAMW circumpolar outcrop windows is largely from denser water, driven by differential freshwater gain, augmented or decreased by heating or cooling. In the SEISAMW and SEPSAMW source regions, however, formation is from lighter water, driven by differential heat loss.

The Ocean Observatories Initiative air‐sea flux mooring deployed at 54.08°S, 89.67°W, in the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, is the farthest south long‐term open ocean flux mooring ever deployed. Mooring observations (February 2015 to August 2017) provide the first in situ quantification of annual net air‐sea heat exchange from one of the prime Subantarctic Mode Water formation regions. Episodic turbulent heat loss events (reaching a daily mean net flux of −294 W/m²) generally occur when northeastward winds bring relatively cold, dry air to the mooring location, leading to large air‐sea temperature and humidity differences. Wintertime heat loss events promote deep mixed layer formation that lead to Subantarctic Mode Water formation. However, these processes have strong interannual variability; a higher frequency of 2 σ and 3 σ turbulent heat loss events in winter 2015 led to deep mixed layers (>300 m), which were nonexistent in winter 2016.

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the Pacific forms in two distinct pools in the south central and southeast Pacific, which subduct into the ocean interior and impact global storage of heat and carbon. Wintertime thickness of the central and eastern SAMW pools vary predominantly out of phase with each other, by up to ±150 m between years, resulting in an interannual thickness see‐saw. The thickness in the eastern (central) pool is found to be strongly positively (negatively) correlated with both the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relative phases of the SAM and ENSO set the SAMW thickness, with in phase reinforcing modes in 2005–2008 and 2012–2017 driving strong differences between the pools. Between 2008 and 2012 out of phase atmospheric modes result in less coherent SAMW patterns. SAMW thickness is dominated by local formation driven by SAM and ENSO modulated wind stress and turbulent heat fluxes.

Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) forms in deep mixed layers just north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in winter, playing a fundamental role in the ocean uptake of heat and carbon. Using a gridded Argo product and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for years 2004-2018, the seasonal evolution of the SAMW volume is analyzed using both a kinematic estimate of the subduction rate and a thermodynamic estimate of the air-sea formation rate. The seasonal SAMW volume changes are separately estimated within the monthly mixed layer and in the interior below it. We find that the variability of SAMW volume is dominated by changes in SAMW volume in the mixed layer. The seasonal variability of SAMW volume in the mixed layer is governed by formation due to air-sea buoyancy fluxes (45%, lasting from July to August), entrainment (35%), and northward Ekman transport across the Subantarctic Front (10%). The interior SAMW formation is entirely controlled by exchanges between the mixed layer and the interior (i.e. instantaneous subduction), which occurs mainly during August-October. The annual mean subduction estimate from a Lagrangian approach shows strong regional variability with hotspots of large SAMW subduction. The SAMW subduction hotspots are consistent with the distribution and export pathways of SAMW over the central and eastern parts of the south Indian and Pacific Oceans. Hotspots in the south Indian Ocean produce strong subduction of 8 and 9 Sv for the light and southeast Indian SAMW, respectively, while SAMW subduction of 6 and 4 Sv occurs for the central and southeast Pacific SAMW, respectively.

The top 2000 m of the Southern Ocean has freshened and warmed over recent decades. However, the high-latitude (south of 50°S) southeast Pacific was observed to be cooler and fresher in the years 2008–10 compared to 2005–07 over a wide depth range including surface, mode, and intermediate waters. The causes and impacts of this event are analyzed using the ocean–sea ice data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) and observationally based products. In 2008–10, a strong positive southern annular mode coincided with a negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation and a deep Amundsen Sea low. Enhanced meridional winds drove strong sea ice export from the eastern Ross Sea, bringing large amounts of ice to the Amundsen Sea ice edge. In 2008, together with increased precipitation, this introduced a strong freshwater anomaly that was advected eastward by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), mixing along the way. This anomaly entered the ocean interior not only as Antarctic Intermediate Water, but also as lighter Southeast Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water (SEPSAMW). A numerical particle release experiment carried out in SOSE showed that the Ross Sea sector was the dominant source of particles reaching the SEPSAMW formation region. This suggests that large-scale climate fluctuations can induce strong interannual variability of volume and properties of SEPSAMW. These fluctuations act at different time scales: instantaneously via direct forcing and also lagged over advective time scales of several years from upstream regions.