We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus are the most common viruses associated with acute lower respiratory infections in young children (<5 years) and older people (≥65 years). A global report of the monthly activity of these viruses is needed to inform public health strategies and programmes for their control. In this systematic analysis, we compiled data from a systematic literature review of studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2017; online datasets; and unpublished research data. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported laboratory-confirmed incidence data of human infection of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, or metapneumovirus, or a combination of these, for at least 12 consecutive months (or 52 weeks equivalent); stable testing practice throughout all years reported; virus results among residents in well-defined geographical locations; and aggregated virus results at least on a monthly basis. Data were extracted through a three-stage process, from which we calculated monthly annual average percentage (AAP) as the relative strength of virus activity. We defined duration of epidemics as the minimum number of months to account for 75% of annual positive samples, with each component month defined as an epidemic month. Furthermore, we modelled monthly AAP of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus using site-specific temperature and relative humidity for the prediction of local average epidemic months. We also predicted global epidemic months of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus on a 5° by 5° grid. The systematic review in this study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018091628. We initally identified 37 335 eligible studies. Of 21 065 studies remaining after exclusion of duplicates, 1081 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 185 were identified as eligible. We included 246 sites for influenza virus, 183 sites for respiratory syncytial virus, 83 sites for parainfluenza virus, and 65 sites for metapneumovirus. Influenza virus had clear seasonal epidemics in winter months in most temperate sites but timing of epidemics was more variable and less seasonal with decreasing distance from the equator. Unlike influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus had clear seasonal epidemics in both temperate and tropical regions, starting in late summer months in the tropics of each hemisphere, reaching most temperate sites in winter months. In most temperate sites, influenza virus epidemics occurred later than respiratory syncytial virus (by 0·3 months [95% CI -0·3 to 0·9]) while no clear temporal order was observed in the tropics. Parainfluenza virus epidemics were found mostly in spring and early summer months in each hemisphere. Metapneumovirus epidemics occurred in late winter and spring in most temperate sites but the timing of epidemics was more diverse in the tropics. Influenza virus epidemics had shorter duration (3·8 months [3·6 to 4·0]) in temperate sites and longer duration (5·2 months [4·9 to 5·5]) in the tropics. Duration of epidemics was similar across all sites for respiratory syncytial virus (4·6 months [4·3 to 4·8]), as it was for metapneumovirus (4·8 months [4·4 to 5·1]). By comparison, parainfluenza virus had longer duration of epidemics (6·3 months [6·0 to 6·7]). Our model had good predictability in the average epidemic months of influenza virus in temperate regions and respiratory syncytial virus in both temperate and tropical regions. Through leave-one-out cross validation, the overall prediction error in the onset of epidemics was within 1 month (influenza virus -0·2 months [-0·6 to 0·1]; respiratory syncytial virus 0·1 months [-0·2 to 0·4]). This study is the first to provide global representations of month-by-month activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus. Our model is helpful in predicting the local onset month of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus epidemics. The seasonality information has important implications for health services planning, the timing of respiratory syncytial virus passive prophylaxis, and the strategy of influenza virus and future respiratory syncytial virus vaccination. European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe (RESCEU).

Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

The interplay between nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage, viral coinfection, and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) is poorly understood. We explored this association in Vietnamese children aged less than 5 years. A hospital-based case-control study of pediatric LRTIs was conducted in Nha Trang, Vietnam. A total of 550 hospitalized children (274 radiologically confirmed pneumonia [RCP] and 276 other LRTIs) were enrolled and 350 healthy controls were randomly selected from the community. Polymerase chain reaction-based methods were used to measure bacterial loads of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP), Haemophilus influenzae, and Moraxella catarrhalis and to detect 13 respiratory viruses and bacterial serotypes in nasopharyngeal samples of study participants. The median nasopharyngeal bacterial load of SP was substantially higher in children with RCP compared with healthy controls or children with other LRTIs (P < 0.001). SP load was 15-fold higher in pneumonia children with viral coinfection compared with those children without viral coinfection (1.4 × 107/mL vs. 9.1 × 105/mL; P = 0.0001). SP load was over 200-fold higher in serotypeable SP compared with nontypeable SP (2.5 × 106/mL vs. 1 × 104/mL; P < 0.0001). These associations were independent of potential confounders in multiple regression models. No clear association was found between nasopharyngeal load of Haemophilus influenzae or Moraxella catarrhalis and viral coinfection in either RCP or other LRTIs groups. An increased load of SP in the nasopharynx was associated with RCP, viral coinfection, and presence of pneumococcal capsule.

The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally. The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996. Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.