Increased uncertainty in the trade environment has become a reality. However, so far, there is no well-established indicator system to quantify the international competitiveness of forest products in the context of increased uncertainty in the trade environment. Based on expanding the concept of international competitiveness, we constructed an evaluation indicator system of international competitiveness including market performance and competitive advantage, which highlighted market stability and market sustainability indicators. We obtained a comprehensive international competitiveness index of the forest products by Deviation Maximization Method. This study aims to compare and evaluate the international competitiveness of forest products in the top 10 exporting countries using a comprehensive international competitiveness index. The results showed that it is more accurate and comprehensive to use the comprehensive international competitiveness index to evaluate the international competitiveness of forest products, compared to using only a single index. Additionally, the changes to the composite index of international competitiveness went hand-in-hand with the uncertainties the observed countries face, indicating that the indicator system is applicable to the measurement of international competitiveness in an uncertain environment. Large differences exist in the level of international competitiveness of forest products among observed countries. German paper products and wood chips, Chinese wood furniture, wood-based panels and wood products, U.S. logs and wood pulp, and Canadian sawn wood were the most competitive. On the whole, China, Germany and Italy have the highest level of overall international competitiveness in forest products, with Brazil and Poland showing the most significant increases.

Price competition and quality competition are the main ways to increase and maintain international competitiveness in the world. However, competitive strategies can vary significantly from product to product. With the utility function and trade gravity model as the research framework in this paper, we use the top 10 countries in terms of the trade volume of forest products from 2012 to 2021 as samples to systematically explore the differential impacts of price and quality on the international competitiveness of forest products. The results of the panel data model that show the regression coefficient of forest product price in terms of international competitiveness are significantly negative, while the regression coefficient of forest product quality is significantly positive, but the absolute value of the regression coefficient of product quality is higher than that of forest product price. Thus, the price and quality of forest products are key factors affecting international competitiveness in general, with the quality of forest products having a higher impact on international competitiveness than the price. However, a further analysis of different forest product categories and countries revealed significant differences in the significance and magnitude of price and quality impacts on international competitiveness. The quality of forest products contributes more to international competitiveness in Brazil, Canada, Germany, Russia, Sweden and the United States. Conversely, the price of forest products in China, Finland, Italy and Poland contributes more to international competitiveness. Therefore, an objective choice of price, quality or a quality:price ratio strategy, taking into account the industry and characteristics of forest products in each country, can contribute to the sustainable improvement of the international competitiveness of forest products.

In 2025, the U.S. reciprocal tariff policy destabilized global multilateral trade and accelerated the advance of regional trade cooperation. As the world’s most populous regional trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) plays an important role in regional economic and trade integration. In this paper, the RCEP’s signing is considered a quasi-natural experiment, and a double machine learning (DML) model is used to analyze the impact of the RCEP’s implementation on the export of forest products among member countries. The sample used for the empirical analysis is product dimension panel data of RCEP member countries from 2012 to 2023. We found that the implementation of the RCEP agreement has facilitated the growth of forest product exports among member countries, as evidenced by the synchronized growth in the quantity, type, and price of forest product exports. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effects of RCEP implementation vary significantly across product categories and across countries. Our study provides evidentiary support for scholars to more fully understand the policy effects of the RCEP and may also serve as a policy reference for RCEP member countries to expand intra-regional forest product exports.