Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo’s third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.

GRANDMA is a network of 25 telescopes of different sizes, including both photometric and spectroscopic facilities. The network aims to coordinate follow-up observations of gravitational-wave candidate alerts, especially those with large localisation uncertainties, to reduce the delay between the initial detection and the optical confirmation. In this paper, we detail GRANDMA’s observational performance during Advanced LIGO/Advanced Virgo Observing Run 3 (O3), focusing on the second part of O3; this includes summary statistics pertaining to coverage and possible astrophysical origin of the candidates. To do so, we quantify our observation efficiency in terms of delay between gravitational-wave candidate trigger time, observations, and the total coverage. Using an optimised and robust coordination system, GRANDMA followed-up about 90% of the gravitational-wave candidate alerts, i.e. 49 out of 56 candidates. This led to coverage of over 9000 deg² during O3. The delay between the gravitational-wave candidate trigger and the first observation was below 1.5 hour for 50% of the alerts. We did not detect any electromagnetic counterparts to the gravitational-wave candidates during O3, likely due to the very large localisation areas (on average thousands of degrees squares) and relatively large distance of the candidates (above 200 Mpc for 60% of BNS candidates). We derive constraints on potential kilonova properties for two potential binary neutron star coalescences (GW190425 and S200213t), assuming that the events’ locations were imaged.

The multi-messenger detection of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817, the corresponding kilonova AT2017gfo and the short gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, as well as the observed afterglow has delivered a scientific breakthrough. For an accurate interpretation of all these different messengers, one requires robust theoretical models that describe the emitted gravitational-wave, the electromagnetic emission, and dense matter reliably. In addition, one needs efficient and accurate computational tools to ensure a correct cross-correlation between the models and the observational data. For this purpose, we have developed the Nuclear-physics and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics framework NMMA. The code allows incorporation of nuclear-physics constraints at low densities as well as X-ray and radio observations of isolated neutron stars. In previous works, the NMMA code has allowed us to constrain the equation of state of supranuclear dense matter, to measure the Hubble constant, and to compare dense-matter physics probed in neutron-star mergers and in heavy-ion collisions, and to classify electromagnetic observations and perform model selection. Here, we show an extension of the NMMA code as a first attempt of analyzing the gravitational-wave signal, the kilonova, and the gamma-ray burst afterglow simultaneously. Incorporating all available information, we estimate the radius of a 1.4M_⊙ neutron star to be $$R=11.9{8}_{-0.40}^{+0.35}$$R = 11.9 8 − 0.40 + 0.35 km.

Joint multimessenger observations with gravitational waves and electromagnetic (EM) data offer new insights into the astrophysical studies of compact objects. The third Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observing run began on 2019 April 1; during the 11 months of observation, there have been 14 compact binary systems candidates for which at least one component is potentially a neutron star. Although intensive follow-up campaigns involving tens of ground and space-based observatories searched for counterparts, no EM counterpart has been detected. Following on a previous study of the first six months of the campaign, we present in this paper the next five months of the campaign from 2019 October to 2020 March. We highlight two neutron star–black hole candidates (S191205ah and S200105ae), two binary neutron star candidates (S191213g and S200213t), and a binary merger with a possible neutron star and a ‘MassGap’ component, S200115j. Assuming that the gravitational-wave (GW) candidates are of astrophysical origin and their location was covered by optical telescopes, we derive possible constraints on the matter ejected during the events based on the non-detection of counterparts. We find that the follow-up observations during the second half of the third observing run did not meet the necessary sensitivity to constrain the source properties of the potential GW candidate. Consequently, we suggest that different strategies have to be used to allow a better usage of the available telescope time. We examine different choices for follow-up surveys to optimize sky localization coverage versus observational depth to understand the likelihood of counterpart detection.